A word of advice: Don’t think ACC’s pending conclusion with Florida State Seminoles and Clemson Tigers will stop their wandering eyes. For now, the ACC commissioner Jim Phillips’ relationship with those two fidgety members has been placed in amber, suspended in time, but by 2030, college football’s next great realignment war will break loose. That’s when both schools can officially leave for less than $100 million per ESPN and On3—a bargain compared to previous exit fees. And once that clock strikes, it’s not a matter of if they leave; It’s who follows, who survives, and most importantly, who fills the void.

With the writing on the wall, the ACC is already eyeing its next move. No conference survives by standing still, and with a power vacuum looming, expansion becomes an inevitability. Enter the University of South Florida, quietly positioning itself as the league’s most attractive lifeline. When FSU leaves the ACC, perhaps USF could absorb their football schedule. Playing Miami (FL) would be fine because both teams reside in Florida. This way, any geographic issue would not be too severe with the scheduling formula through 2030.

Well, whatever it is, USF has come a long way. They might be on the lower end of ACC’s target list as UConn and Tulane might be their prime targets. But there are people who believe USF has a good shot. The Big Mountain podcast fellas, JY and Steve, didn’t mince words when discussing the conference’s top-tier targets. Steve stated:

“Number one most likely candidate, I think they’re likely, I think they’re ready and waiting. I think they are investing. Everything, they are just ready to go. USF. They are the only one that top tier, I think they are ready. If I was the ACC with the news of the settlement right now, I would be giving USF an invite right now and, you know, starting in the fall 2030 football season. Because the odds by that time of not losing at least one team are pretty high.

“Get them locked and loaded. They are already been preparing for this, investing in their stadium and everything. Investing in their program. They’re right there. They’re on track, so for me right away, locked and loaded USF my top seed.”

The Bulls are more than just another Group of Five program dreaming of the big leagues; They’ve been actively building toward this moment.

“We are thrilled to bring our on-campus stadium vision closer to reality, and these new renderings give Bulls fans an exciting glimpse into the game day experience awaiting them,” Vice President for Athletics Michael Kelly said in a statement in Nov. 2024. A brand-new $340 million on-campus stadium is set to break ground, symbolizing a program not just knocking on the door of the Power Four but practically demanding entry. The ACC needs stability, and USF is ready-made for the transition. Unlike the last round of conference realignment, which felt like a mad dash for survival, this shift is calculated.

JY, from ‘The Big Mountain Podcast’ stated: “I have heard that they’re actually gearing up for an invitation somewhere. I think they have the goals of moving up into what we’re now calling the Power Four, we’ll see if we are calling them that in four-five years. But at least right now, they definitely have the goal of moving up. You look at the conferences that are interested in them. The PAC was interested in them. The ACC is very likely interested in them.”

Timing, as always, is everything. By 2030, when Clemson and Florida State make their inevitable move, the ACC will be desperate to maintain its national relevance. Losing flagship programs could send the conference into a downward spiral—unless new blood is brought in to counteract the damage. That’s where USF comes in. The program’s location in Tampa offers a prime television market, and their football ambitions, backed by a massive university system, align perfectly with the ACC’s need for long-term security.

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Debate

Beyond just replacing brands, the ACC’s recent media-rights settlement plays into this equation. As part of the agreement, future revenue distribution will weigh TV ratings more heavily, favoring schools like Clemson and Florida State in the short term. But if those two bolt, the league will need fresh markets and new audiences to maintain its financial leverage. USF checks both boxes. While they don’t have the football pedigree of Clemson or FSU, their growth potential is undeniable.

The wind of change is blowing in fast. We have already heard of some merger into a super league that mimics the NFL.

The ACC’s future: A delayed breakup or just buying time?

The ACC’s new revenue-sharing model, which takes 60% of its media revenue based on a five-year rolling average and distributes more cash to its top-performing programs, is an attempt to keep its heavyweights happy. But not everyone is convinced this will work.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey isn’t buying it. “There’s a history of unequal revenue sharing, and those conferences, it just hasn’t worked well for a long-term solution,” he told ‘The Post and Courier’ earlier this month. “In fact, the conferences that have chosen to do so have generally, either they don’t exist at a high level, or they’ve gone a different direction.”

“I’m sure that what others have done will introduce the conversation. I would hope we’re careful and responsible in how we do that. They made the decision for their purposes. That doesn’t necessarily mean that fits our purposes or our values.” Translation? Sankey sees this as a temporary bandage on a bigger problem. While the ACC is likely to survive in its current form until at least 2030, commissioner Jim Phillips can call that a win—for now. But beyond that? It’s a free-for-all.

The ACC had come up with this model due to its settlement with Florida State and Clemson and in the process, they have fixed other issues like the conference’s exit fee and the uneven revenue distribution between the ACC’s members. However, SEC Network analyst Paul Finebaum predicted that the resolution the ACC came with may cause multiple teams to leave in the future.

“If you’re the commissioner of the ACC, you have to live in the moment,” Finebaum stated earlier this month. “Yeah, you plan for the future. But you can’t be too hung up on five, six, seven years from now because there’s a chance you won’t be the commissioner. I’m talking about Jim Phillips. He made the best deal for the moment. He had to stop the hammer. He had to stop the bleeding. He did that, but there is a due date, as you said. When that due date comes, it is going to be open season, I believe, on the ACC.”