With Quinn Ewers heading to the NFL, Arch Manning has become the leading candidate to lead the Texas offense. Although HC Steve Sarkisian is yet to announce officially, the Longhorns may not have to worry about their starting quarterback for the 2025 season. But what about the next season? Yes, this will be Arch’s first season as a starting QB, but you can not keep the 19-year-old away from the NFL for too long. NFL front offices are watching. Vegas odds are buzzing. And the Manning name? Well, that’s never been quiet.

Despite all the noise, there appears to be a calculated family strategy quietly unfolding, and it doesn’t involve the 19-year-old suiting up on Sundays just yet. Arch Manning, who turns 20 later this month, is expected to take the reins of the Longhorns offense this fall, and with that comes pressure only a Manning could truly understand. But what happens after this season? Many assumed the 2026 NFL Draft was a foregone conclusion. But ESPN’s Matt Miller doesn’t see it that way. “I keep telling people he’s a 2027 guy,” Miller said on the College GameDay Podcast. “So, let’s cool our heads a little bit on the Arch talk.”

Now, while fans are ready to crown the next No. 1 pick, Miller says this is all moving too fast. “This is all going to depend on what we see on the field, as it should be,” he added. In short, he’s not buying the rush. Chip Brown of Horns247 took it a step further after speaking directly to Arch’s dad, Cooper Manning. The Manning patriarch, as it turns out, is in no hurry either. “I spoke to Cooper Manning about Arch’s segue into becoming the starter at Texas, and you know what his life has been like up to this point. And Cooper Manning is a guy who’s in no hurry,” Brown said.

“Arch is in the same vein. He’s a guy who was content to go to Texas and learn and grow behind Quinn Ewers. He didn’t want to go somewhere where he had to be the savior. He’s not in a rush.” That slow churn, learn-then-lead approach has become rare in the modern game, but the Mannings aren’t your average football family.

Cooper was not done addressing the noise. With Arch already being dubbed a Heisman frontrunner before even winning the starting job outright, and Texas emerging as a top-two contender for the national championship, Cooper fired back at the hype. Chip Brown quoted Cooper, who said, “These expectations for him are crazy. They’re beyond—they’re ridiculous.” That’s not false humility. It’s perspective, born from family experience. Peyton stayed four years at Tennessee. Eli lasted five years at Ole Miss. “I think there’s just as much of a chance for Arch Manning to be the number one pick in the 2026 NFL draft as there is for him to come back to Texas and play football in 2026,” Cooper continued. “He loves being at Texas. His younger brother, Hyde, is there. He’s unconventional.”

Even with only 12 total games of college experience and just two starts under his belt. Arch is already in the national spotlight. That spotlight only grows brighter as he prepares for his first full season under center. If Horns makes a deep run in the College Football Playoff, he could finish 2024 with 16 starts. That’s a solid sample size, but when you’re a Manning, good isn’t always good enough. And maybe Arch, who’s watched two uncles navigate this same road, knows better than anyone that a little more polish and a few more Saturdays might pay bigger dividends in the long run.

There’s also the reality that some development can’t be rushed. Manning’s game flashes plenty of upside—arm talent, anticipation, football IQ—but reps matter. And he and Steve Sarkisian may know another season or two is exactly what he needs to transform potential into production. A full second season could cement his status as the top quarterback in a loaded draft class. Leaving early just for the sake of it? That’s not how the Mannings move. So while the headlines will keep screaming “No. 1 pick,” the real story is more nuanced.

Arch Manning’s new challenge: leading the herd, not just running it

Arch Manning might have the Manning name and a rocket for an arm, but head coach Steve Sarkisian says there’s still one key area where Arch is growing. And it’s not about Xs and Os. It’s leadership.

Sure, Arch has already been named the starter and logged two starts under his belt. But Sarkisian isn’t letting him coast on talent or pedigree. Speaking to On3 on Tuesday, Sark shared, “I think one is, and this is going to sound crazy because I think he’s a great leader, but we continue to push him from a leadership standpoint.”

Translation? Arch isn’t just the QB anymore — he’s the guy everyone’s looking to, especially now that he’s leading a fresh-faced offense. “This has been a great spring for Arch because he didn’t get put out there on the field his first spring as the starting quarterback with three vets that know the offense inside and out and are fixing things on the move,” Coach Sark added.

Now, it’s up to Arch to be that steady voice in the huddle. Even with four new offensive linemen, a green receiver corps, and a young backfield. Oh — and don’t forget his wheels. Sark wants him to know exactly when to let that speed fly.