Oregon head coach Dan Lanning isn’t losing sleep over where his team landed in the first College Football Playoff rankings, even if the No. 9 spot feels like a slap in the face. The Ducks got hit with some brutal honesty from the selection committee this week. Chair Mack Rhoades basically told them their resume doesn’t measure up to the other contenders sitting in the top 10. But Lanning’s got a simple message for anyone questioning where Oregon belongs.

When a CBS Sports reporter asked Dan Lanning about the committee’s criticism, specifically Rhoades saying “their strength of record isn’t what the other top 10 teams have,” the Oregon coach didn’t flinch. “Go play the next game,” Lanning said matter-of-factly. “We’re going to play some really good teams here before the season’s done. We’ve played some good teams already, but ultimately, all you control is, you know, when you go out on the field on Saturday, how do you perform. So, we get that chance, come this Saturday against a really good Iowa team.” It’s the response you’d expect from a coach who’s been through this rodeo before. 

Dan Lanning doubled down on that message during an appearance on ESPN Radio’s ‘Amber & Fitz.’ He acknowledged that the rankings don’t reflect where Oregon thought it would be, but insisted the path forward is crystal clear. “I get it. It’s based off of where a lot of teams probably fell in preseason,” Lanning explained. “When you start looking at our schedule, there’s no secret. We play some really good teams.” The subtext is obvious. Oregon’s best football is still ahead of them. And if they take care of business down the stretch, the committee’s initial skepticism won’t matter one bit.​

The committee’s concerns about Oregon aren’t exactly baseless, though, which is what makes this situation so fascinating. Mack Rhoades laid it out pretty bluntly during Tuesday’s rankings reveal, saying Oregon ranks “lowest in terms of record strength” among the top 10 teams. 

Their road double-overtime thriller against the third-ranked Nittany Lions looked impressive in the moment. But Penn State has since imploded, losing every game after that and firing their coach without a single Big Ten win to show for it. 

Northwestern, another Oregon victim, turned out better than expected, but that’s still not exactly a resume-building triumph. The Ducks’ only loss came at home to Indiana, 30-20, in a game where the Hoosiers were clearly the more physical team. 

“When we looked and evaluated Oregon, we really looked in terms of just quality of team and how they looked on film,” Rhoades said, essentially admitting that Oregon passes the eye test but needs to prove it against better competition. The Ducks are averaging dominance against lesser opponents, but they haven’t put a quality scalp on the wall yet.​

But the schedule gods are about to give them exactly what they need. Starting this Saturday at Kinnick Stadium, the Ducks face No. 20 Iowa in what should be a hostile environment. After that, Oregon gets unranked but bowl-eligible Minnesota at home, then hosts No. 19 USC before closing the regular season with a massive rivalry game at No. 23 Washington in Seattle. 

Three ranked opponents in the final month, all opportunities to erase the committee’s doubts. As long as Oregon wins two of those three ranked games, they’re almost certainly in the playoff. 

Nick Saban warns of a perfect storm in Iowa City

Nick Saban sees exactly what makes this matchup so dangerous for the Oregon Ducks, and it’s not complicated. Iowa does the one thing Oregon can’t afford to struggle with. “Well, Oregon struggles come when they can’t run the football and they can’t win on the line of scrimmage. And that’s the one thing that Iowa is very good at,” Saban said.

“You know, they’re gonna run the ball, they’re gonna shrink the game, they’re gonna play good defense, they’re gonna play well out up front, they’re gonna stop the run. So this is exactly the kind of matchup you really don’t wanna be into if you’re Oregon.” 

Saban also pointed to Oregon’s loss to Indiana. The Hoosiers held Oregon to just 81 rushing yards and made Dante Moore look mortal with consistent pressure. This Iowa matchup can be exactly on those lines. Iowa’s defense ranks third nationally in total defense and fourth in scoring defense, allowing a microscopic 13.1 points per game. That’s the exact blueprint for slowing down a Ducks team that averages 44.3 points when they’re not facing elite defenses.​

But Saban still picked Oregon to win despite laying out all the reasons they could lose. When pressed for his prediction, he couldn’t ignore the talent gap that exists on the perimeter. “I think Oregon will overcome because of their skill guys,” Saban said. Oregon’s got the horses to win, but only if they don’t let the Hawkeyes dictate the terms of engagement. Kirk Herbstreit went the other direction entirely, picking Iowa to pull the upset and become “the somebody” that the Hawkeyes always seem to get in November.