While the hot seat narrative is in the air, Kalen DeBoer isn’t getting fired in Year 2 at Alabama. He’s just not. Sure, some folks are already acting like the sky’s falling in Tuscaloosa after a “down” year. But let’s be real—DeBoer stepped into the most intense coaching seat in college football and still won nine games, extending a streak Alabama has protected for 17 straight seasons. And yet, after a rocky finish to 2024 that included losses to Oklahoma and, shockingly, Vandy, some talking heads want to hit the panic button.

But let’s not confuse a couple of uncharacteristic stumbles for some grand unraveling. Alabama’s schedule in 2025 is no cakewalk. It’s filled with landmines and the usual gauntlet of SEC contenders and marquee matchups. The night game chatter alone tells you how competitive this slate is. That SEC Football’s Cousin Shane broke it down: “A lot of marquee games on this one. This will be a tough one.” Host SEC Mike replied: “Obviously Alabama’s going to have multiple night games and likely multiple home night games.” But here’s the kicker—“they only get one.” That’s the kind of scheduling twist that doesn’t help a coach trying to establish rhythm in Year 2.

So, which game gets the primetime lights? Mike listed the options: “ULM at home week two, Wisconsin week three, then you’re on the road at Georgia, Vanderbilt at home, then at Missouri, Tennessee at home, at South Carolina.” He added, “Then your next three—LSU, Oklahoma, and Southern Illinois—all at home before hitting the road for the Iron Bowl.”

But it was Shane who nailed the real headline here: “I’m looking at three games that they lost last year—you know, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Oklahoma… but give me LSU-Alabama. I think that is a huge, huge matchup and potentially the reason that Bama either gets into the playoffs or does not.”

And that’s the real story. Not Vanderbilt’s Cinderella punch at Bryant-Denny. Not even Oklahoma flexing with tempo. It’s LSU and Brian Kelly—the lurking giant in the West—who pose the biggest threat to DeBoer’s Playoff ambitions. Alabama will host LSU after a bye week, and if there’s one thing the schedule makers did right, it’s giving Kalen DeBoer and his staff a chance to recalibrate before a potential CFP play-in game. The Tigers boast the No. 1 recruiting class of 2026, and the arms race between Tuscaloosa and Baton Rouge is only just beginning.

Still, it’s worth noting that Kalen DeBoer hasn’t exactly wilted against elite competition. Let’s talk numbers. Since 2021, DeBoer is 7-0 against four of the sport’s heaviest hitters—Dan Lanning (0-3), Steve Sarkisian (0-2), Brian Kelly (0-1), and Kirby Smart (0-1). Zero combined wins for those four coaches against him. That’s not a fluke. That’s system mastery, roster maximization, and outright game-day execution. Even more impressive? Those seven wins came in seven different locations, including the 2024 stunner in Baton Rouge against No. 14 LSU. So while the anti-DeBoer crowd clings to the “9” like it’s some kind of scarlet letter, they’d do well to look deeper.

Why Kalen DeBoer has the numbers to silence the doubters

If you’re in the anti-Kalen DeBoer camp, there’s a number you might want to chew on: 0.833. That’s not just some random stat—it’s DeBoer’s win percentage against AP Top-25 opponents over five seasons as an FBS head coach. Let that sink in. His 15-3 record vs. ranked teams? That’s No. 1 among active FBS coaches with at least 15 such games under their belt. And no, it wasn’t a fluke or a one-team wonder. He did it across three different programs, including a 3-1 mark in 2024 alone.

In the era of a 12-team College Football Playoff, where a 10-2 record still keeps you dancing in December, that kind of résumé matters more than ever. Only seven active FBS coaches even have a winning record vs. AP Top-25 teams. DeBoer is one of them.

Now let’s talk offense. Strip away non-offensive touchdowns, and Alabama still averaged 28.1 points per SEC game in DeBoer’s Year 1—No. 1 in the conference in 2024. Sure, SEC offenses were down, and sure, DeBoer’s bar is higher. But context matters. And finally, there are 60 million reasons DeBoer isn’t going anywhere soon—that’s what he’ll still be owed after 2025 on his 8-year, $87 million contract.