Looks like college football on Saturday isn’t just on the screen this time. Disney and YouTube TV are locked in a standoff over carriage fees, leaving some channels temporarily blacked out and frustrating fans across the country. The talk of the town is that Disney is holding firm with its demands, while YouTube TV is trying to keep subscription costs in check. With neither side willing to budge, the big question is: how long is Disney going to let this blackout continue before someone gives in?

Purely based on the current standing between the media giants, it looks like the blackout might not end anytime soon. The talks have been ongoing for weeks, even during big games like Alabama’s win over LSU and Wake Forest’s shocking upset of Virginia. Despite all the negotiations, no deal has been reached, leaving millions of viewers frustrated as channels remain blacked out. The word on the street is that Disney is apparently losing around $30 million a week in revenue because of the blackout, which is putting significant pressure on the company to find a solution quickly.

The blackout started on Halloween because the two companies couldn’t agree on how much YouTube TV should pay to carry popular channels like ESPN, ABC, FX, and yes, the Disney Channel. Funny thing: the situation doesn’t involve complicated technology or streaming issues. It’s simply old-school pricing. It’s a classic standoff: Disney wants more money, arguing their content is worth it, while YouTube TV says Disney’s demands are too high and would force them to raise prices on their subscribers.

In the past, networks like ESPN had all the leverage in the world. If a distributor let a popular sports network go dark, subscribers would cancel in droves, and the distributor would quickly cave. But now, streaming platforms like YouTube TV have the reach and influence to stand their ground. They’ve already gone through one Monday Night Football game without a deal.

Analyst Rich Greenfield highlighted the shift, saying, “You have the best-in-class tech platform with a young and growing audience… How long can Disney be dark on this?” His point is clear: YouTube TV’s leverage is huge, and Disney is under pressure to act fast.

To make things more intriguing, Disney has its fourth-quarter earnings call with analysts coming up next week. Greenfield noted, “I can’t imagine Disney going into earnings on Thursday without a deal… I just can’t fathom getting on the earnings call and being dark still.” Both sides are blaming each other for the mess, and there’s no sign of a deal just yet.

With millions of viewers affected and tens of millions of dollars in revenue at stake, Disney can’t afford to wait much longer. How long the blackout will last, and how much leverage YouTube TV can hold is shaping up to be one of the most important industry battles in recent years.

Potential plays, solutions, and outcomes

In situations like the one between YouTube TV and Disney, where channels go dark, there are a few likely ways things will play out. The most common outcome, which we’ve seen before, is that they eventually reach a new deal. After a bit of public squabbling and seeing how frustrated customers get, one or both sides will budge on their price demands. Once they iron out the details, the channels will simply reappear on YouTube TV as if nothing happened, though the negotiations might lead to a slight price increase for subscribers down the road.

Presumably, Disney is more likely to strike a deal before their fourth-quarter meeting. Someone needs to step up and play the bigger man here and let the opposing party take the upper hand. Mind you, Disney can’t afford to play bleeding games with YouTube TV (it’s backed by Google). They’d lose a massive chunk of their viewers. Plus, they’ve already lost $30 million in just one week.

The least likely outcome is that they permanently part ways and the Disney channels never return to YouTube TV. This would be a huge blow to both companies. Disney would lose millions of viewers who use YouTube TV, and YouTube TV would lose all the popular content from ESPN, ABC, and more, which would likely cause many subscribers to cancel. For that reason, both sides have a strong incentive to work it out, even if it takes a little longer and some tense back-and-forth.