Penn State’s once-promising 2025 campaign has crumbled into chaos. James Franklin has been fired, and to make matters worse, Drew Allar suffered a season-ending injury in their loss to Northwestern. The news took a major toll on Allar’s once-shiny No. 1 draft pick conversations. According to DraftKings, he opened the season tied with LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier at +350 odds. That is no longer the case.

In his draft predictions released on October 16, ESPN’s Jordan Reid didn’t even mention Allar in his 2026 first-round mock draft. Instead, Reid included quarterbacks like Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Oregon’s Dante Moore, and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers. His omission speaks volumes about how brutally fast the draft stock game can change. There are concrete reasons for Allar being absent.

Late in Penn State’s 22-21 loss to Northwestern, Allar tried to rally his team. He was scrambling for a clutch first down but tragically ended up flat on the turf, grabbing his left leg. For a player who came back to chase redemption and a national championship after a College Football Playoff run, it’s crushing. On top of that, Allar’s out of eligibility. It’s because he’s played more than four games every year for the past four seasons. The only way he keeps going is if the NCAA changes its rules.

Even before injury, both scouts and advanced stats saw troubling regression. His yards per attempt took a hit (6.9), turnover-worthy plays rose (2.6%), and his big-time throw rate quietly dipped (2.5%) as Penn State faltered behind a less creative offense and the loss of security blanket TE Tyler Warren. One NFL scout put it out bluntly when he said, “The talent is all there. First-round talent. Good make-up. He’s just not a swashbuckler type.” Allar’s game has warts that can’t be ignored. His confidence takes a hit under pressure, and when the pocket collapses, he struggles to climb and evade.

His 6’5 framework gave him an edge, definitely, but his recent games have been nothing but disappointment. This was glaringly evident in Penn State’s 30-24 game against Oregon. Even though he led a sharp, seven-minute, 15-play drive to tie the game late, he ultimately completed just 59% of his passes. That became his second-lowest mark of the season. He threw for only 137 yards, two touchdowns, and a costly pick in double overtime that killed Penn State’s comeback hopes. These are some glaring holes that are keeping Drew Allar away from all the draft conversations.

Drew Allar’s time for introspection

The week 7 Northwestern game became the final nail in the coffin for Drew Allar’s Penn State career. The nail-biting 22-21 loss led to the breaking news of Drew Allar’s season-ending injury. Plus, with no remaining eligibility left, this injury also signaled the end of Allar’s college career. That’ when Allar took to social media to capture his feelings with a simple yet powerful four-word message: “Grateful for it all.”

He also connected the message with a verse from the Bible. “Jeremiah 29:11: For I know the plans I have for you, declares the Lord, plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future,” he wrote. The quarterback, who had been expected to be a top NFL pick, had put together an efficient season with 1,100 passing yards at a 64.8% completion rate and chipped in 172 rushing yards.

But the promising numbers don’t really talk about Drew Allar’s areas of improvement. And then the draft stock fiasco. Draft analyst Thor Nystrom summed it up bluntly. “Drew Allar would have been a first-rounder to some in 2026,” he said. “[Now] he’ll be a late-Day 3 dart throw in April if he doesn’t apply for and win a medical redshirt.” Happy Valley can never get out of problems, especially with Drew Allar going down and the head coaching seat still empty.