The Texas Longhorns entered the 2025 season with the biggest chip on their shoulder. The AP Poll ranked them as the preseason No. 1 team in the country. Many national analysts and major media outlets believed that 2025 would be the year Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns make it to the natty after back-to-back College Football Playoff semifinal appearance. Fast forward to Week 6, Texas is out of the AP Top 25 for the first time since the early 2000s, and is now sitting at 3-2. It’s safe to say that making the playoffs now feels like a long-shot dream. And all the blame points toward Steve Sarkisian’s $5.5 million man.

On October 6th, college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit hopped onto the Non-Stop podcast alongside Joey Galloway and called out Texas’ biggest problem: Arch Manning. Galloway started off with the idea of benching Manning in this NIL era: “In today’s world, with NIL, transfer portal, the money, all these things, could you bench Arch Manning?” The Longhorns are now in a very difficult position. The $5.5 million man Arch Manning has failed to meet even 25% of preseason expectations. Texas indirectly pushed Quinn Ewers out with the assumption that the grass would be greener on the other side. But with Ewers off to the NFL, there’s no green left in Texas — it’s all muddy and rusty.

Kirk Herbstreit kept it real about benching Arch Manning and praised Matthew Caldwell’s single snap: “I don’t know. I saw Matthew Caldwell come in and throw an absolute strike. When he came in, when Arch Manning’s helmet went off, yeah, and he came in and just threw a laser, threw a dart.” Herbstreit added complexity to the Manning situation by bringing up fifth-year senior Matthew Caldwell. The former Troy QB came in for one snap and divided Longhorn Nation in two with his 26-yard clinical strike. Caldwell joined Texas this season after throwing for 1,608 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just 8 picks at Troy.

Herbstreit also called out the Longhorns’ offensive line, their non-existent running back corps, and their defense, labeling Texas’ downfall as the “Great Mystery of 2025.” Joey Galloway agreed with Herbstreit and questioned Arch Manning’s ability: “Texas is playing a combination of things, but it’s all bad. Arch is just the tip of the spear — whatever you want to call it. He’s the focal point. He just looks indecisive and unsure. So again, it’s not all him, but at the same time, he’s not playing well.” Even though it’s more than just an Arch problem at Texas, it’s pretty clear that Manning is failing to perform up to his standard and preseason Heisman hype.

After five starts, Arch Manning has barely completed 60% of his passes for 1,151 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s thrown five interceptions in five games so far and essentially sold the game against Florida. Manning made Billy Napier look like prime Lincoln Riley. He was sacked six times throughout that game and threw two picks in the fourth quarter, which ruined the Longhorns’ tempo. That’s not ideal for a Texas QB, it’s only a matter of time or a season before Steve Sarkisian considers making a change.

Is it just the Arch problem? Or is there more to the story?

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is taking a lot of heat after a tough loss to Florida, and many believe he’s to blame. Despite saying his players are “more than capable,” the team didn’t look prepared. One fan joked that if this is what capable looks like, they don’t want to see what unprepared means. Even college football analyst Josh Pate said quarterback Arch Manning wasn’t at fault for the poor performance — he just didn’t have the protection he needed from the offensive line: Arch Manning took six more sacks. He had two more picks. And I don’t even throw it in his lap. He doesn’t have any time to work. His offensive line’s just not good right now.”

The main issue is that Sarkisian didn’t bring in any offensive linemen through the transfer portal, even though he’s used it well for other positions. Texas added strong players on defense and at tight end, but completely skipped adding experience to the offensive line. Instead, Sarkisian and offensive line coach Kyle Flood chose to rely on younger players already on the team, like Connor Stroh, Neto Umeozulu, and freshman Nick Brooks.

That decision is now backfiring. Against Florida, the offensive line collapsed, allowing twice as many sacks as Texas had given up all season. Manning was under constant pressure, completed just 55% of his passes, and threw two interceptions. Fans and analysts are now questioning why Sarkisian didn’t do more to protect his young quarterback by shoring up the offensive line, a mistake that’s costing Texas dearly.