College Football Week 1: Predicting 5 Upsets Ft. Utah vs UCLA

Death, taxes, and Week 1 upsets—those are the only three guarantees in life. The 2025 season didn’t waste a single second proving that right. Boise State, fresh off a playoff run, got humbled by South Florida in a 34–7 nightmare. The Army Black Knights — who just last December hoisted an AAC title, got dragged into double overtime and left embarrassed by Tarleton State, a team most fans couldn’t even point out on a map. Then, Hugh Freeze‘s Auburn bested Baylor in a game the Bears were supposed to win (per analysts). The point is, half of Week 1 already looks like a meme. And the crazy part? We’re just getting started. The upset train isn’t slowing down, and a few more big names are about to get smacked.

1. UCLA Bruins vs Utah Utes

Utah walks into the Rose Bowl stadium as a 5.5-point favorite, but the math doesn’t quite match the line. ESPN’s SP+ calls it Utah 26, UCLA 22, a toss-up game. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor? Flips the script, giving UCLA a slight 52.1% edge. Translation: Vegas might be leaning too heavily on Utah’s rep, while the numbers say UCLA’s got a real shot to make noise.

And the noise starts with Nico Iamaleava. The former 5-star bolted Tennessee, landed in Westwood, and instantly turned UCLA’s offseason into a hype reel. He’s lanky, he’s sneaky, and with new offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri—whose Indiana offense hung 41.3 points per game last season—this attack feels turbocharged.

Utah still packs heat. Kyle Whittingham doesn’t lose openers—17–3 all-time—and Pick Six Previews has Utah ranked 22nd in Power 4, compared to UCLA’s 51st. Plus, QB Devon Dampier transferred in from New Mexico with 3,934 total yards in 2024, including 1,166 rushing. He took 100 pressures and got sacked only four times. Utah also brings back a run defense that ranked 35th nationally, giving up just 129.4 yards per game.

But here’s the catch—the Big 12 isn’t the Mountain West, and Pasadena isn’t Albuquerque. Utah went 5–7 last season, including 3–3 on the road. UCLA rebuilt its O-line, added serious speed to the backfield, and has DeShaun Foster’s new-player energy buzzing. If Nico gets going and Utah can’t flip the scoreboard through the air—remember, they were 95th or 105th in passing yards last season—then this is Pasadena primed for a shocker.

2. Syracuse Orange over Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee’s sitting pretty as a 14-point favorite, but don’t sleep on Syracuse here. The Orange came out of nowhere last year, went 10–3, and snuck into the Top 25 under rookie coach Fran Brown. That run included a wild 42–38 upset over then-No. 6 Miami. And here’s the real deal—they return 15 defenders with starting experience. That’s continuity you don’t usually see in the ACC.

The Vols, meanwhile, had a messy offseason. They lost SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson and top WR Dont’e Thornton to the NFL, and—most importantly—their prized QB Nico Iamaleava to UCLA after some ugly NIL fallout. Enter Joey Aguilar, fresh out of Appalachian State, who’s more rollercoaster than QB. His last two years? 6,760 yards and 56 TDs—impressive—but 24 interceptions and 14 fumbles. The Vols’ new QB1 can cook or combust, sometimes in the same quarter.

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel usually fields fireworks, averaging nine to ten wins per year, but this isn’t the same roster. The Orange thrive in chaos, and Aguilar’s turnover-prone tendencies could light their defense up. Vegas sees Tennessee as two-TD favorites, but Syracuse’s consistency and last year’s giant-killer energy scream upset alert. Remember—nobody had them at 10 wins last year either.

3. Florida State Seminoles over Alabama Crimson Tide

Now for the heavyweight punch. Alabama’s a 13.5-point favorite, but this game feels spicier than the line. Nick Saban’s gone, and Kalen DeBoer’s 9–4 debut didn’t exactly quiet the skeptics. Alabama dropped three road games last season, and now they’ve got to open at Doak Campbell? That’s a setup for disaster.

Florida State cratered in 2024, finishing 2–10 a year after a 13–1 playoff run. But Mike Norvell hit reset. He hired Gus Malzahn to juice up the offense, pulled in Boston College transfer Thomas Castellanos — a dual-threat spark plug who ran for 1,100 yards in 2023—and rebuilt through the portal. The FSU quarterback already talked the talk: “They don’t have Nick Saban to save them. I just don’t see them stopping me.” That confidence is contagious or even outrageous.

Bama’s QB situation? Ugly. Ty Simpson, in three years, has thrown just 50 passes, completing 29 for 381 yards, zero touchdowns, zero picks. For a program that hasn’t lost a season opener in 23 years, that’s shaky ground. On paper, Bama is an easy pick. Josh Pate has them winning it all. But late August brings turbulence in Florida skies. The rain is predicted. That means the offense becomes unidimensional. There goes Bama’s advantage. Can they do it in the trenches? We don’t think so.

4. LSU Tigers over Clemson Tigers

Clemson might be a 4.5-point favorite in Death Valley, but don’t think for a second LSU’s rolling in as an easy underdog. Brian Kelly’s crew just went through one of the wildest offseasons in college football—straight-up Madden franchise mode. They hauled in the No. 1 transfer class in the nation, dropping serious NIL money to reload after a 9-4 finish in 2024. Eighteen transfers, double-digit millions in roster reconstruction, and now the Tigers look like a completely different animal.

Garrett Nussmeier is the key. The QB tossed for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns last season, and now he’s got legit weapons all over the field. Kentucky speedster Barion Brown, Oklahoma’s Nic Anderson (10 TDs as a freshman), plus 6’7” freak-of-nature Trey’Dez Green at tight end. That’s a passing arsenal that can stretch even Clemson’s loaded secondary. Add Harold Perkins Jr. wrecking shop on defense, and you’ve got a balance that LSU flat-out didn’t have a year ago.

Now, here’s the kicker: LSU thrives in this spot. In 2024, the Tigers went undefeated against the spread as underdogs of 3.5 or more. Translation? They show up when Vegas doubts them. Clemson returns a ridiculous 91% of its starters, and Cade Klubnik is in the thick of the Heisman race, but history says Brian Kelly has to flip this opener curse eventually. He’s 0–3 in season openers at LSU, and going 0–4 would be brutal.

5. Miami Hurricanes over Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame was last year’s Cinderella—losing early to Northern Illinois, then storming all the way to the title game before Ohio State snatched the glass slipper. But 2025 is a different beast. They lost studs everywhere: All-Americans Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts, QB Riley Leonard, multiple O-linemen, and wideouts Jayden Thomas and Deion Colzie. Enter CJ Carr, a redshirt freshman QB with zero real-game bruises.

Miami, meanwhile, stacked the deck. HC Mario Cristobal shelled out $4 million to land Carson Beck from Georgia, who tossed 3,485 yards and 28 TDs last year. He’s got a top-tier O-line in Francis Mauigoa and James Brockermeyer, and a strong RB trio in Mark Fletcher Jr., Jordan Lyle, and portal gem CharMar Brown—who had 1,000 yards and 15 TDs last year in FCS. That’s depth for days.

And don’t forget the defense. Cristobal brought in Corey Hetherman, the mastermind behind Minnesota’s top-five defense in 2024. That squad allowed just 16.9 points a game. With Rueben Bain Jr. blowing up fronts and new corners Charles Brantley and Xavier Lucas tightening the back end, this defense might be scarier than the offense.

CJ Carr’s debut under Hard Rock Stadium’s lights? Against that defense? That’s baptism by fire. If Beck stays upright, Miami could punch Notre Dame in the mouth early and not let up. Upset? More like a statement.

Bonus: Toledo Rockets over Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky’s favored by about ten points in this Week 1 showdown, but if you’ve been around college football long enough, you know a MAC team like Toledo isn’t just showing up to grab a paycheck. These Rockets already embarrassed an SEC squad last fall when they smacked Mississippi State 41–17, and they’ve got the tools to do it again in Lexington.

Toledo’s biggest card is quarterback Tucker Gleason, a steady vet who returns after an 8–5 season. He’s now got extra firepower in the backfield, thanks to transfer backs Chip Trayanum and Kenji Christian. Trayanum, by the way, just so happens to be a Kentucky transfer. You know he’s circling this one on the calendar. The Rockets also bring back enough wideouts to stretch what was a pretty soft Kentucky pass defense in 2024.

Meanwhile, the Wildcats are a mystery box. They stumbled to just four wins last year, and only four defensive starters return—none on the line. That’s a recipe for Toledo’s run game to pound early and often. Kentucky is also rolling out Zach Calzada at quarterback, a journeyman who’s been at Texas A&M, Auburn, and Incarnate Word. Sure, he once knocked off Alabama, but he’s streaky as all get-out. He put up nearly 3,800 yards and 35 touchdowns in the FCS last year, but moving back to the SEC spotlight is a whole different animal.

Final word?

Week 1 already dumped chaos all over the map. Boise, Army, Baylor—all cooked. These five games? They’re next in line. Maybe Utah gets burned under the Pasadena heat. Maybe Syracuse throws Tennessee into another Orange Bowl. Maybe FSU drops the hammer on a Saban-less Bama. Maybe Brian Kelly finally shakes his opener curse in Death Valley East. Or maybe Miami drags Notre Dame back to reality. Either way, buckle up—because in college football, Week 1 upsets aren’t accidents. They’re tradition.