When Diego Pavia made a statement by leading Vanderbilt to a 6-1 record after a 31-24 upset win over LSU, Greg McElroy took notice and said it was time for Pavia to be firmly in the Heisman conversation. McElroy even praised Pavia’s throws, especially his 21-yard TD run in the 4th quarter, which ended with him striking the Heisman pose. But that script seems to be changing a bit ahead of the game against the Texas Longhorns. Here, McElroy addresses a reality check for Pavia, as the team is set to face a very well-coached defense.

On Friday’s episode of Always College Football, McElroy mentioned, “It’s the ninth-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores taking on the 20th-ranked Texas Longhorns.” Then came the arguable X-factor of the Texas vs. Vanderbilt game as McElroy issued that million-dollar question: “Will Diego Pavia try to play hero ball now?” Because that could be a huge problem for the Commodores if they want to keep their winning streak alive, and that’s already been proven.

“We’ve already seen a quarterback this year try to play hero ball against Texas, and it did not go very well. It actually went very poorly, and that was John Mateer,” said the ESPN analyst. Yes, against the Longhorns, Mateer struggled, throwing 3 interceptions while completing 20 of 38 passes. Now, Pavia has the chance to do that.

“Diego Pavia has a tendency to try to do too much, which can lead to the occasional sloppiness or a big mistake. He has just five interceptions on the season, so it’s not a ridiculous number, but if he tries to do too much against this defense in Texas, that could be a huge problem,” explained McElroy. Then he doubled down on his take, pointing out Pavia’s playing style.

Pavia has shown flashes against top competition this year, like against Alabama and Missouri. But the offense didn’t always click, averaging just 15 PPG. Yet, Pavia is a true dual threat. He leads Vanderbilt in passing with nearly 1,700 yards and also leads the team on the ground, with over 450 rushing yards and five TDs. Now, while his ability gives him a chance to beat the Longhorns, trying to do too much could be a costly mistake.

“Because Texas, they have nine picks this year. So their whole goal, I would imagine, defensively, is not necessarily stopping Diego Pavia, but baiting him, corralling him, and not allowing him to make the miraculous play,” stated McElroy. So if Pavia, for whatever reason, gets impatient, that could be a real problem, which we’ve already seen against Oklahoma and Mateer.

Now, while Pavia needs to be patient against Texas to improve to 8-1, Texas has every reason to put up a tough battle.

Diego Pavia’s Vanderbilt can take a hit

Last year, Vanderbilt was the hunter, riding a three-game winning streak, and they pushed Texas to the edge, falling just 27–24. That Longhorns team went on to the CFP semifinal, while the Commodores finished 7–6. Fast forward, and the tables have turned this season. Vanderbilt is 7–1 after bouncing back from a loss to Alabama with wins over LSU and Missouri. Meanwhile, Texas is 6-2, and the offense has struggled since injured Arch Manning went down. But here’s some good news.

The Longhorns could be a step closer to full strength, with two key pieces back in the mix. Texas HC Steve Sarkisian dropped a major injury update during the weekly SEC teleconference. QB Manning and safety Michael Taaffe hit the practice field Wednesday ahead of the big showdown with Vanderbilt. While Manning is bouncing back from a concussion suffered on the first play of overtime against MS State, Taaffe missed that game after thumb surgery following the Kentucky win.

Now, while their comeback could boost Sarkisian’s squad, the prediction leans toward the Longhorns. As On3Sports’ Brett McMurphy posted, “Texas has a 57% chance to beat Vanderbilt in this matchup.” But it’s only a prediction. The real outcome will be known after the final whistle on Saturday.