If you thought Cal’s 31-10 faceplant against Stanford was just another frustrating chapter in the Justin Wilcox era, well, surprise. The story detonated shortly after. And now the Bears enter their final regular-season matchup with SMU not just bruised, but headless.

“Sources: Cal has fired Justin Wilcox,” Pete Thamel reported on X on November 23. 

Suddenly, Cal offensive analyst and former Washington State HC Nick Rolovich is stepping in as the interim boss, per ESPN. It’s a quick pivot, but when you’ve gone 6-5 with a roster that keeps springing leaks, quick pivots become survival. But firing a coach is the easy part, paying him off is where things really get spicy.

Justin Wilcox wasn’t exactly working on a bargain contract. According to USA TODAY’s 2025 compensation database, he sat at No. 48 nationally with a tidy $4.8 million paycheck, eighth-highest in the ACC. And that’s before bonuses. He also had a $250,000 retention payment he’d collect only if he remained head coach through the end of the 2025 regular season. Solid numbers but the real number everyone’s rubbing their temples over lies in the fine print. Because when you hit December 1, the math changes and not in Cal’s favor.

If Cal fires Justin Wilcox without cause before December 1, 2025, the buyout hits a staggering $10,879,167. That’s the 47th-biggest buyout out of 105 reviewed, and eighth in the ACC. It’s not the biggest number in the sport, but for a program navigating conference realignment and resource constraints, it’s a serious bite. But why did it come to this? The answer sits painfully on the tape with Saturday giving a glaring clue. 

The Stanford meltdown that kicked Justin Wilcox out

Against Stanford, Cal tied their most penalties in the Justin Wilcox era (13) and recorded their highest penalty yardage total (128) in nine seasons. The Bears also coughed up three fumbles, effectively handing the Cardinal a rivalry win. The meltdown came just one week after Cal shocked No. 14 Louisville, a victory that briefly hinted the Bears had turned the corner. But brief isn’t sustainable.

Cal’s offense, electric in 2024, was gutted by the transfer portal. QB Fernando Mendoza left for Indiana. Star RB Jaydn Ott jumped to Oklahoma. TE Jack Endries packed for Texas. Justin Wilcox wasn’t just coaching a new team. He was coaching a patched-together roster missing its engine, wheels, and dashboard. Yet the problems didn’t start with departures, they started with patterns.

Even in 2024’s brighter stretches, the Bears still stumbled to seven losses with five of them by eight points or fewer. That fed straight into Justin Wilcox’s most damning trend. A 6-19 record in one-score games from 2020-24, a stat that screams issues with game management, late-game adjustments, and closing out winnable battles.

Across nine seasons, Justin Wilcox went 48-55 overall and 26-47 in Pac-12 and ACC play, managing just two winning seasons, the last back in 2019. He delivered four bowl trips and secured a fifth this year, but the momentum never stuck. In the end, those numbers made the decision for Cal. Now the Bears step into an uncertain future with a hefty buyout, an interim coach, and an ACC slate that won’t slow down.