Auburn’s recruiting momentum has cooled, and Hugh Freeze knows it. Since early June, the Tigers have lost 4 blue-chip commits from their 2026 class, dropping to just six total pledges and a national ranking outside the top 70. After a 5-7 finish in 2024 and early signs of progress under Freeze, the pressure is mounting. Speaking in Alexander City on Wednesday, Freeze admitted, “It’s hard to feel great,” but still backed his vision, saying Auburn will finish with a top-10 class. So, the rebuild started strong—but now, the Tigers face a critical test.

Yes, Hugh Freeze’s Auburn squad is diving headfirst into the fire in 2025. The Tigers open the season on the road at Baylor on August 29, setting the tone early. Home matchups against Ball State and South Alabama follow, but the real grind kicks in with an SEC gauntlet—trips to Oklahoma and Texas A&M, and a primetime home clash with Georgia in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. On top of it, Auburn also welcomes Missouri, Kentucky, Mercer, and archrival Alabama to Jordan-Hare, while making key road stops at Arkansas and Vanderbilt. It all builds to the Iron Bowl on November 29—a finale that could define the season. So, the road is rough, the stakes are sky-high, and drama is guaranteed on the Plains.

On the July 2 episode of Saturday Down South, the spotlight turned to Hugh Freeze, and the heat is rising fast. Host Connor O’Gara sat down with college football analyst Josh Pate, who didn’t hold back on Auburn’s high-stakes 2025 outlook. “Well, Auburn, to make it work—period. They have to win this year. If they don’t win this year, he’s in big trouble. If they don’t win this year, there’s no way they have a signing class that’s to the level that they need to have. And so, I think it’s like watching the see-saw and seeing it’s teetering right now.” So, for Coach Freeze, the margin for error is razor-thin. The Tigers must win—and they must win now.

But Josh Pate didn’t mince words when breaking down Auburn’s make-or-break 2025 season. The biggest X-factor? Quarterback play. And for Hugh Freeze, that’s a risky bet. “You’re just waiting, like, does the stone get added on this side or this side? Well, the stone is quarterback play this year. It’s not a guy that they recruited. It’s not a guy they’ve developed. They are placing their careers in the hands of a portal quarterback. They’re not the only ones that are forced to do that in this era,” said Pate. So, in a high-stakes year on the Plains, Auburn’s success may hinge on a transfer QB not homegrown, but handpicked for survival.

Then Josh Pate reflected on Auburn’s situation with some perspective. A year ago, things felt different. “This time last year, like I was looking at what you were just talking about. Okay, they got a couple of really good signing classes baked in. They were given patience. You’ve got to give Auburn folks credit. They were given patience because they knew [Bryan] Harsin left us next to nothing. This new staff’s going to come in,” said Pate. So, back then, the belief was strong. The rebuild was understood. And patience was preached. But now, that grace period is running thin, and results are the only thing that will buy more time.

But it’s not just Hugh Freeze—Brent Venables is also entering a critical season, and the clock is ticking. Here, Josh Pate drew the comparison clearly, pointing out how both coaches are now deep enough into their tenures where patience is wearing thin. “Freeze has won in this conference before, so he’s got the proof of performance. Let’s give him some time. And they did give him time. Then they had the season they had last year. And you fast forward another year—I say the same thing about Venables at Oklahoma. You can talk about how crazy [the] expectation level is when you’re three, four-plus years into a job,” stated Pate. So, experience buys time, but not forever. In today’s CFB world, year three is the pressure point—and both coaches are feeling it.

In the end, Josh Pate didn’t hold back from the tough truth: pressure isn’t optional for big-time college coaches—it’s the cost of the paycheck. “You don’t take these jobs without understanding that level of expectation is going to be there, and you don’t take these jobs without understanding, ‘If I’m not getting it done, if we’re not humming by year three and year four especially, then I’ll be out of a job.’ That’s the tradeoff to making the kind of money you make. That’s the way it works,” said the CFB analyst. In short, year three is make-or-break. The honeymoon is over. It’s time to deliver, or step aside.

Amid all the noise, Hugh Freeze dropped a concerning truth bomb about Auburn’s NIL budget.

Hugh Freeze’s growing concern

It’s been a rough week on The Plains. Auburn missed out on five-star talents Earnest Rankins and Cederian Morgan, who chose FSU and Alabama despite listing Auburn as finalists. To make matters worse, 4-stars Shadarius Toodle and Denairius Gray backed off their pledges. With key targets slipping away and decommitments piling up, the Tigers have tumbled to No. 89 in the 2026 class rankings, per 247Sports.

Auburn’s 2026 class sits thin, with just six hard commits. The headliners? 4-star QB Peyton Falzone, a former PSU pledge, and EDGE Hezekiah Harris. But as momentum stalls, Coach Freeze is feeling the heat. Frustrated by recent recruiting losses, Freeze points to a key culprit: NIL. According to On3’s Justin Hokanson, Freeze admitted Auburn is “really low” on NIL resources compared to the powerhouses they’re battling on the trail. So, in today’s recruiting game, money talks—and right now, Auburn’s voice isn’t loud enough.

Hugh Freeze made it clear—Auburn is playing by the book. He stressed that his staff is sticking to NCAA and congressional NIL guidelines, even if others might be bending the rules. Still, Freeze isn’t backing down from the challenge. He remains confident that a top-10 class in 2026 is within reach. Meanwhile, AD John Cohen sees a spark of hope on the horizon. With August 1 marking the first day players can officially sign NIL deals, Cohen believes the Tigers could make some major flips when the clock starts ticking.