Both Auburn (3-4) and Arkansas (2-5) are entering this weekend’s matchup searching for their first SEC victory of the season. On paper, the teams are evenly matched for one, while ESPN Analytics gives Arkansas only a slight edge at 50.6%. But all the stats and records in the world might not matter if the skies over Fayetteville get to have their say. Weather forecasts are calling for rain, which threatens to wash over Hugh Freeze’s game plan before it even begins.

“The sky will be cloudy with periods of rain likely during the game; temperatures will hover in the low to mid 60s,” shared James Spann, an AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist, on his X account. 

While rainfall is not expected for most of Friday, the majority of the expected rain is expected to fall in northwest and west Arkansas through Friday evening. Come Saturday, it will spread east across most of Arkansas. This gives way to steady rain (55% chance) and wind (primarily southeast at 15 miles per hour) during the Arkansas vs Auburn game starting at 11:45 AM. Also, rain chances drop to 49% before increasing to 65% at 3 PM CT Saturday. But all that seems to be okay for Auburn’s head coach, who has already used “drenched” football in practice all week long. 

“Weather, you’ll have to play it by ear,” Freeze said, per Auburn Undercover. “We’ve, obviously, done wet-ball work in a team period every single day this week. Drenched it. I haven’t looked to see what the weather is right now but that will play a factor, for sure, if it’s pouring down rain. We’ll probably slow it down some, ask the officials in pregame how often will you let us get a ball in? Because we’d like to run one in every play if needed unless we’re going some tempo.”

But if rainfall disrupts a significant portion of the game, relying heavily on the passing game will backfire. This gives Arkansas’ Taylen Green a slight edge, owing to his dual-threat prowess.

The QB has passed for 1,910 yards so far and has earned a 155.9 QB rating. Much of his performance, however, has come on the ground as the 23-year-old has also accumulated 589 yards in the rushing game for 5 TDs. Not to mention there were instances where Green has rushed for more than 30+ yards in a play. Due to that, the interim head coach, Bobby Petrino, has even expressed caution about the team relying solely on the star athlete’s rushing ability.

“At times, we defended the run better. But then we rushed past the quarterback a number of times, and a guy who can run like that. You can’t rush past the quarterback, defensive tackles, and ends at least four times; all past. The depth of the quarterback can end up killing us with that, so there’s a lot of good. There are a lot of things to correct,” said Petrino after the Texas A&M game. Nevertheless, that dual-threat prowess will come in handy if rain actually shows up.

That said, Arkansas also has a varied rushing attack, and players like Mike Washington Jr and Braylen Russell also contribute. Washington Jr has accumulated a whopping 671 rushing yards so far at 7 yards per carry. In contrast, Braylen Russell has contributed 248 rushing yards for three touchdowns. In total, the Razorbacks have accumulated 1,577 rushing yards so far, and the ratio of their passing and rushing attack is nearly 50%.

With that being said, Auburn, too, has some good rushing players, and they can exploit the rain similarly.

Hugh Freeze to rely on his performing D-line to stop Arkansas

Even though both teams are on a losing streak, for the Tigers, the losses were somewhat narrow. For instance, against Missouri last weekend, the game went into overtime, and Texas A&M was a one-possession loss. Even against Oklahoma, Auburn was defeated 24-17, and within reach (10-13) when the third quarter ended. A major part of that is their rushing game.

Unlike Arkansas, Auburn relied heavily on a single player, Jeremiah Cobb, for their rushing yards. The star RB has so far accumulated 564 yards, while Jackson Arnold is second with 261 rushing yards. In total, the team has accumulated 1,135 rushing yards. The Tigers, too, diversify their offense and have a 50% split in rushing and passing offense. Moreover, since Arkansas is ranked 121st nationally in rushing defense, Auburn can exploit the Razorbacks’ weak D-line.

On the flip side, the Tigers’ D line is one of the best in the SEC, at least in stopping those rushing yards. The team is ranked 10th nationally and has given up just 87.14 rushing yards per game. That surely favors Auburn, but since Arkansas will have the home advantage, expect a tense game in the trenches. Surely, the weather interference will make the game even more interesting.