Tennessee came into the 2025 season with serious championship aspirations. They were ranked 24th in the AP preseason poll as a program riding high off a 10-win season and a College Football Playoff appearance just months prior. But as Josh Heupel addressed the media recently, the narrative had shifted dramatically. The Vols were sitting at 6-3 with their playoff hopes essentially dead after a devastating loss to Oklahoma. 

The disappointment was evident in Heupel’s words as he reflected on the team’s trajectory. “As a competitor, in this game, at times, there’s going to be a result you don’t like,” Heupel told reporters. “Welcome to competing. If I had my wish, after that one, you’d play right away.” There was a weariness to his tone that comes from watching a season slip away in spite of having the pieces to compete. The coach understood the stakes, understood what this program had built over the past few years, and clearly felt the regret of seeing it all crumble. 

Heupel’s emphasis during the week spoke to his awareness of the fundamental issues plaguing his team. “A big focus is on us and how we can get better,” he explained. He acknowledged that finger-pointing or making excuses wouldn’t move the needle. The root of Tennessee’s struggles ran deep and cut across multiple areas of the team. Yes, the defense had been a particular problem. The Vols led the SEC with 98 missed tackles, a staggering number that spoke to fundamental issues in technique and effort.

But the offense, which had been expected to carry the team, also underwhelmed against quality opponents. Joey Aguilar threw for 393 yards against Oklahoma but also committed three turnovers in a game that Tennessee desperately needed to win. More broadly, the Vols couldn’t find a way to beat ranked teams. 

They continue November with zero wins against opponents with winning records and had lost all three matchups with ranked opponents, including an overtime heartbreaker to Georgia and the season-defining loss to the Sooners. 

The problem wasn’t one glaring weakness but rather a cascading series of failures, which included inconsistent tackling, untimely turnovers, missed field goals, and offensive stalls at critical moments. That added up to three losses that essentially ended the season’s grand objectives.​ Tennessee had constructed its own downfall through absolutely abysmal defense. Their scoring offense is 3rd in the nation, whereas their defense is 115th in the nation.

Heupel built a program in five years that went from a dumpster fire to a playoff team, won 10 regular-season games, and established himself as one of the best coaches the SEC has to offer. But 2025 is forcing him to make hard decisions about the roster, the staff, and what Tennessee’s standards actually are going forward. 

Next year’s expectations will be different. Tennessee gets a chance to finish strong. But that CFP window that seemed so wide open six weeks ago? That’s been closed, and he knows it.

Tennessee’s ultimatum and the financial gamble

According to reports, athletic director Danny White and the Vols brass issued what amounts to a coaching death sentence: a 30-day ultimatum to salvage Heupel’s tenure. “Rumors in the Tennessee AD office this morning of a potential Josh Heupel buyout,” the X post read. “Depending factors on the outcome of the Florida & Vandy games. The only name being thrown out there is Lane Kiffin as a replacement. Kiffin has referenced many times how much he misses Tennessee.”

An ultimatum like this doesn’t get handed down casually. It comes from boosters who smell the window closing, who remember last season’s Orange Bowl glory and can’t reconcile it with this year’s collapse. Josh Heupel’s got roughly four weeks to figure this out, three games to prove he’s worth keeping around. New Mexico State on November 15, Florida on November 23, and the season finale against No. 9 Vanderbilt on November 30. That’s it. That’s the test.​

Heupel’s contract is worth $9 million annually with a buyout that sits at $37.5 million if Tennessee fires him without cause before December 1, 2025. That’s already a massive number, the 14th largest coaching buyout in the country. But the powers that be at Tennessee are apparently willing to eat it if they believe the window has truly slammed shut. 

Add in Lane Kiffin’s buyout from Ole Miss (roughly $36 million) and you’re looking at a combined $75 million investment just to move on and start fresh. That’s an absurd amount of money. Yet as one Tennessee insider put it, “When the big boosters decide the window’s closing, they find the money. They always do.” Programs like Texas A&M, LSU, and Penn State have made similar moves, essentially writing blank checks to chase the next big thing.​