Tennessee fans felt like they’d finally made it. The 2024 season was a fever dream turned real. College Football Playoff? Check. A five-star quarterback? Yup. Top-five defense? You bet. Head coach Josh Heupel’s crew had Vol Nation thinking dynasties, not just dreams. But just when it looked like Tennessee was finally stepping into the VIP room of college football, the lights cut out. First, Ohio bodied them out of the playoffs in January. Then in April, Nico Iamaleava chased the money trail west, and Knoxville was left holding a souvenir playoff invite and a million what-ifs.

Now in 2025, Heupel is walking into fall camp with a portal QB, a Frankenstein O-line, and ESPN didn’t even list them in its Top 25. National confidence? Nearly gone. But then on  July 21, Greg McElroy came through with the side-eye: “Tennessee is one of those teams that’s one of the biggest unknowns in the entire SEC. We don’t know exactly what things are going to look like at quarterback. We think Joey Aguilar—two years ago at Appalachian State—had a really good year,” he said on his podcast Always College Football. Not a dig—a sleeper tag. In a league where uncertainty usually means doom, McElroy thinks the Vols could sneak into the Playoff conversation again. And suddenly, this underdog story feels like it’s got a second chapter.

Let’s talk about Joey Aguilar. The kid’s like an unopened pack of fireworks—you don’t know if you’re getting a light show or a full-blown meltdown. At Appalachian State in 2023, he was flinging it: 3,757 yards, 33 touchdowns, and plays that made scouts raise eyebrows. But the man turned the ball over like he was trying to win a raffle—10 picks, 11 fumbles. In 2024? Regression hit. Hard. His stats dipped across the board. 22 tuddies, and 14 picks. McElroy broke it down: “Last year, it wasn’t so good. Tried to do a little too much. Took a few too many risks.”

But what if all Aguilar really needs is structure? Heupel’s offense isn’t about freelancing. It’s all about timing, quick reads, and tempo. The goal isn’t to play Superman—it’s to be efficient. Hendon Hooker went from transfer afterthought to first-round arm talent in this system. Aguilar doesn’t need to be a star. He just has to be stable. McElroy believes he might thrive in that simplicity: “Maybe he can now get back in a quarterback-friendly system, playing rock-solid football.”

Here’s the bigger problem: that offensive line. Tennessee didn’t just lose bodies—they lost experience, identity, and leadership. Cooper Mays, the heartbeat at center, is gone. John Campbell Jr., an All-SEC rock on the edge? Gone too. The Vols lost four starters total, and in an uptempo system like Heupel’s, that’s a potential disaster. There’s no time for hesitation when you’re snapping the ball every 12 seconds.

So, are they fixing it? Portal magic. Lance Heard comes in from LSU with five-star tools. William Satterwhite is a high-upside 2024 recruit who could be a future star. There’s JUCO experience mixed in, and Dayne Davis brings some veteran presence. But let’s be real—chemistry takes reps. And Tennessee doesn’t have time to wait. If that unit isn’t humming by October, trips to Georgia, Bama, and even Kentucky could get messy. Greg McElroy is low-key optimistic about Vols’ O-line: “They’ve reinforced with blue-chip talent in some cases, but you lose some identity… In this offense, where they want to play with tempo and the center is required to do an awful lot, having a guy slightly less experienced there is less than desirable.”

The defense? That’s where Tennessee might quietly carry the load. 8 starters return from a top-tier SEC unit. Sure, James Pearce Jr. dipped to the NFL, but the cupboard is far from empty. Edge Joshua Josephs steps into a lead role with 71 tackles and 16 tackles-for-loss. Inside, Bryson Eason and Jaxson Moi are back to anchor the line, and Tim Banks’ rotation runs deep. This group might not be highlight-reel dominant, but it’s going to be tough, disciplined, and physical.

However, their schedule? Bit diabolical. Week 1, they open in Atlanta against Syracuse. Should be a win… unless the O-line starts leaking and the defense looks sleepy. Then it’s trips to Florida, Georgia, and Bama. Throw in Oklahoma at home, Kentucky on the road, and Mississippi State for good measure. That’s not a gauntlet—it’s a meat grinder.

So yeah, calling Tennessee a sleeper? That’s bold.

Tennessee Vols total wins and odds for 2025 season

Despite the turbulence, sportsbooks haven’t totally bailed on the Vols. FanDuel has Tennessee’s win total set at 8.5. Betting the over? That’ll cost you around –122. The under? Pays about even money. Translation: Vegas is cautiously optimistic. They’re not buying a playoff run, but they’re not ready to count out Heupel, either.

This 8.5 number puts the Vols in that tricky 8-4 or 9-3 space—good enough to matter, not good enough to dominate. And that’s exactly where McElroy has them. Not Tier-One-like Georgia or Alabama. But Tier Two. Dangerous. Capable of ruining someone’s season. But they’ve got to survive first. The road to nine wins isn’t smooth. Georgia and Bama are likely losses unless Tennessee plays flawless football. Florida and Kentucky are physical, gritty matchups—games where one or two busted plays could flip everything.

The betting odds reflect all this volatility. SEC championship odds range from +1300 to +1800, which basically means oddsmakers are giving the Vols a 5% shot to pull off a miracle. National title hopes? You’ll find them anywhere from +3300 to +5000. That’s “puncher’s chance” territory, not contender status.

ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) puts Tennessee at 8.7 projected wins. That comes with a modest 38.5% chance to make the expanded College Football Playoff. Again, possible—but everything has to click. Aguilar needs to be 2023 Joey. The O-line has to gel by October. And CB Jermod McCoy’s got to lock it down in the back end. No room for busted coverages or botched protections.

Bottom line: Tennessee is a riddle. You might see a 6-6 flop, or you might see a 10-2 surge. It all depends on how fast this patchwork offense finds its rhythm—and whether the defense can keep the SEC’s nastiest teams under control.