There are lies people tell about college football, and then there’s what Josh Pate calls the truth serum. The college football analyst, in his ‘Pate State’ monologue, wasn’t shy about pulling the curtain, and Kansas State Wildcats coach and QB1 got embroiled in it. “This is Pate State. This is a campus where we try and educate,” he opened, before diving into what he called one of the sport’s more deceptive narratives. K-State being poised for a major leap simply because Avery Johnson is back. But as Pate sees it, there’s more fog than fire behind that optimism…

“Kansas State, this one’s tricky,” Pate said on namesake CFB show, laying out the case with his usual calm conviction. “Kansas State was 8-4 last year. They got an over/under win total of eight and a half. I’m going with Kansas State being the same as they were last year.” Even with the electric Johnson return quarterbacking, Pate didn’t bite on the hype. “I know Avery Johnson’s back. I know that. [But] you don’t always just get huge improvement just because a guy returns. I think Avery Johnson is who he is. He’s a good player. I think he is who he is as a quarterback.”

The deeper issue? Up front. “I think there are questions along that offensive line,” he said. “Sort of a middle-of-the-pack secondary last year, counting on some portal backfills there. They go to Baylor, they go to Kansas, they go to Oklahoma State. That’ll be interesting. But they get Texas Tech, they got to go to Utah. That back half of their schedule is not easy. And I just think it’s a lot of close games. 8-4 sounds about right to me.” Pate’s read isn’t based on vibes—he’s looking at travel, attrition, and the grim grind of the Big 12’s second half.

And let’s talk trenches, because that’s where things get bumpy. For the first time in Chris Klieman’s Kansas State tenure, OL coach Conor Riley is gone, hired away by the Dallas Cowboys. In steps Brian Lepak, the former tight ends coach who knows his way around the interior but inherits a room full of both promise and pressure. The transition comes at a sensitive time: the Wildcats are breaking in at least three new starters.

Lepak knows the responsibility. “Right now, with where we’re at with Kansas State, I’m taking something that’s already really good and making sure that I don’t break it,” he said. “And so, I have to do all the mental prep on the front end to get ready to roll.” Translation? This is a situation where a single busted protection or misread stunt in Big 12 play could turn into a disaster for a passer who thrives best on rhythm and burst.

The only returning starters from last year’s line are super-senior guard Taylor Poitier and senior center Sam Hecht. Around them, Lepak and staff scrambled to pull talent from across the Power Four. That includes junior tackle George Fitzpatrick from Ohio State, sophomore Amos Talalele from USC, super-senior JB Nelson from Penn State, and senior Terrence Enos from Pitt. All now folded into a brand-new, high-ceiling, high-volatility unit. That kind of turnover isn’t inherently bad, but it rarely clicks on Day 1.

There’s still some magic to this team if they can hold the line—literally. Johnson’s legs are the great eraser, and if Lepak’s unit gels, the Wildcats could still claw out nine wins. But Pate’s verdict feels rooted in realism. With no Connor Riley, a rebuilt line, and a tough slate down the stretch?

Kansas State Wildcats’ O-line still a puzzle as fall camp looms

Chris Klieman’s offensive line remains a moving target, and nobody inside the building is pretending otherwise. With turnover up front and a new position coach in Brian Lepak, this group is still very much under construction heading into the summer. Identifying the starting five? That’s a job for August.

“Right now, we’re kind of operating without a real depth chart,” Lepak said back in April. “We’re trying to get everybody ready to play, because I really don’t know — none of us do — who are you going to need to win at any point in the season.” That kind of uncertainty is equal parts unsettling and strategic. In a league where trench attrition is guaranteed, developing depth is critical.

Flexibility is a theme. Terrence Enos and JB Nelson can each play inside or out. While backups John Pastore, Drake Bequeaith, Kyle Rakers, and Michael Capria are all pushing for second-team reps, especially at center behind Sam Hecht.

“We feel like we have the ability to play eight or nine guys,” Chris Klieman said. “Now, will we get all those guys in every game? I don’t know… But I know early on in the season, that’s one of the things that Brian [Lepak] and Drew [Liddle, assistant line coach] want to focus on, is to play eight or nine guys so that we can keep those guys, keep a TP [Poitier] as fresh as long as we can — he’s got a lot of tread on those tires — and not have to play him 75 plays a game for 13 games.” Keeping the tires fresh on Poitier and company? Essential.