Texas’ final game for the regular season is against its undefeated in-state rivals, the Aggies. The game looks heavily one-sided, and you know that because even a diplomatic analyst like Kirk Herbstreit isn’t giving much weight to Arch Manning’s Longhorns in this matchup. Rather, in an episode of Non-Stop, the 56-year-old sounded doubtful about the Longhorn’s chances.

During the conversation, when Joey Galloway predicted the Aggies would win, saying, “I’m gonna go A&M just because you purposely had Marcel Reed on here to make me like him. Now I’m a huge fan,” Herbstreit replied, “I think I’m with you, and it makes me nervous. But I think the spread is all over it. I mean, this one’s going to be good. I think it’s a three-point win for whoever wins.”

Last year, their 17-7 win happened because the Longhorns had Quinn Ewers as the signal caller. The Longhorns got on the board early with an Arch Manning 15-yard rushing touchdown in the first quarter, then Ewers found Jaydon Blue for a 7-yard score in the second to jump out to a 17–0 lead. This year, the situation is very different.

The Aggies’ offense has been cooking all year, blowing up defenses with big plays in both the passing game and the run game. They actually rank 11th in the country for explosive plays, and they’ve dropped 31 or more points in six of their wins.

The O-line has been rock solid, giving sophomore QB Marcel Reed all the time he needs, allowing just 11 sacks all season. And the defense? It’s been shaky the last few years, but this season they’ve completely flipped the script. The Aggies have the best third-down defense in the SEC, giving up only 22 conversions on 87 attempts.

They’ve also racked up 25 sacks. It ranks third in the conference. And they matched last year’s total in just seven games. One of their biggest moments came in that wild comeback against South Carolina, where they erased a 27-point deficit and pulled off a 31–30 win.

On the other hand, the Longhorns have been inconsistent this season, particularly on the front. Arch Manning has had struggles with mistakes, made harder by issues with inconsistent catching by receivers. Arch Manning has been sacked more than a dozen times and hit around 60 times through seven games.

Many problems fell on the brutal workload behind a rebuilt line that replaced four of five starters and lost tackle Andre Cojoe to a season‑ending knee injury before Week 1.​ That chaos is evident in games like the ugly 16–13 overtime win at Kentucky, where Texas managed just 179 total yards and only one offensive touchdown.

It happened three times this year. The team struggled big-time, ranking 104th in the country on third-down conversions and 127th in penalty yards per game. The Aggies will definitely take advantage of these glaring holes. Mike Elko’s squad definitely has the edge as 2.5-point favorites.

On the other hand, Texas is fighting to keep playoff hopes alive after an up-and-down season. That’s why a dominant win over the 11-0 Aggies team would be the perfect statement win.

The receiving corps’ slippery hands

Arch Manning has little coordination as the Longhorns’ signal caller, and the Aggies know that. The 35-10 loss against Georgia felt like Manning was fighting a battle he was never set up to win.

Stephen A. Smith called it out loud and clear. “Hey Peeps! Texas is down 14-3. I just watched @ArchManning put the ball right in dudes hands not once, not twice, but three damn times on first, second, and third down, and these brothers are dropping passes,” he wrote on X. “I’ve counted 4 dropped passes from him already in this game.”

Early in the game, Manning did what quarterbacks dream of. He threw the ball right to his receivers, putting it in perfect spots. But those catches? They didn’t come. Four drops in that one game from key targets like Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore Jr. killed momentum before it even started to build. The frustration extended beyond just the drops.

On a third-and-4 at the Georgia 29, Manning threw a pressured pass that sailed over his man into the arms of a lurking safety for an interception. It felt like the offense was coming apart despite the talent on the field. This is really absurd because the Longhorns’ receiving corps has a productive resume. Wingo with 31 catches and 5 touchdowns, Mosley with 15 catches and 3 touchdowns.

But against Georgia? None of that clicked when it counted.