Julian Sayin is set to take the field as QB1 against Arch Manning. This Week 1 showdown has been the talk of the town in almost every corner of America. A game like this to start the 2025 season is about as good as it gets. Kirk Herbstreit himself teed it up in his annual Herbie Awards preview, and the storyline couldn’t be more electric.

Herbstreit didn’t sugarcoat Ohio State’s biggest uncertainty. In his category of Biggest questions for contenders he laid it out plainly: “Let’s go to Ohio State again, the team that lost their quarterback. Julian Sayin is announced as the starter replacing Will Howard. Is he ready to be the guy? So much leadership lost off that defense. All of now those guys are in the NFL, but Caleb Downs is back.” Those words cut straight to the heart of the Buckeyes’ season. Replacing proven veterans with raw but talented newcomers while still being asked to play at a championship level from Day 1. Herbstreit wasn’t questioning Sayin’s five-star pedigree. He was pointing to the enormous gap between talent and trust in a game where execution in big moments decides everything.

The mention of Caleb Downs is telling. Herbstreit also handed the Alabama transfer the Ultimate Herbie Award, calling him the centerpiece of Ryan Day’s defense. Downs is a tone-setter. A quarterback of the secondary who communicates coverages, rallies teammates, and leads with both production and poise. Between his on-field abilities and what he does as a leader, he represents Ohio State’s anchor in a unit that saw its backbone gutted by the NFL Draft. Without Tommy Eichenberg, JT Tuimoloau, and Denzel Burke, the Buckeyes need Downs to be everywhere. Deep coverage, run support, blitz disguise. Herbstreit’s recognition underscores how crucial Downs will be in this heavyweight opener.

But then comes the other half of the conversation: the Texas advantage. While Sayin arrives with minimal college snaps, Arch Manning already has the rhythm of Sarkisian’s system in his bones. Chris Fallica, sitting with David Pollack, didn’t hesitate to peg Texas’ defense as the X-factor in Columbus. “I think that’s going to be a low-scoring, defense-dominating game, 14–9 in the late third quarter,” Fallica predicted, a vision of a slugfest rather than a shootout. He went further: “With Julian Sayin…it’s a completely different offense, completely different quarterback.” That’s not hyperbole. The Buckeyes built last year’s offense on Will Howard’s power and experience, while Sayin is a rhythm thrower with elite touch but untested decision-making speed. Against a Texas front that lives off disruption and closing space, those differences matter.

Adding to the drama are Ohio State’s offensive line concerns. Fall camp whispers painted a picture of a unit still searching for cohesion, particularly in the run game where lanes weren’t consistently opening. Replacing both tackles in the same offseason is a nightmare scenario when the first test is a ferocious Texas front 7. Sayin may have the quick release, but if the protection falters and the ground game sputters, the Longhorns’ defense can dictate terms.

The irony, of course, is that both Ohio State and Texas are dealing with turnovers. The Longhorns lose their own set of starters, yet the continuity of Arch Manning combined with a balanced roster gives them a slight edge. Both recruit at the highest level, so the raw materials are equal. But Herbstreit’s pointed question: “Is he ready to be the guy?” captures what this opener really is about.

Texas seen as the real heavyweight not Julian Sayin

When it comes to the looming Cotton Bowl rematch, Paul Finebaum isn’t exactly handing out good news to the Buckeye Nation. The ESPN analyst went straight to the point with his doubts about Ohio State’s chances. “I think Vegas is completely wrong. I really don’t even think that this game is going to be close,” Finebaum said recently. “I’m not trying to tank viewership for it. It’s a big event, one of the biggest games we’ve seen, but I think Texas’ roster is better, and I think Ohio State is going to be hungover from last year with a new quarterback. And by the way, two new coordinators as well.”

That’s about as blunt as it gets. While the oddsmakers have Ohio State sitting as a slim 2- to 3-point favorite, that margin is more about geography than dominance. As Finebaum alluded to, the Buckeyes have the edge largely because they’re playing in Columbus. On a neutral field? This one probably opens as a dead-even pick ’em.

Ohio State fans have heard this song before. Finebaum takes on the scarlet and gray often, and his words rarely land softly. But this time, the timing adds gasoline to the fire because Julian Sayin is under center for his first true test against a stacked Longhorns roster.