It almost looked like Lincoln Riley had figured it out in his fourth year at USC. In the critical summer month, the Trojans sit at the helm of the 2026 class, boasting a total of 27 commits under their radar. The number is double that of what each of the other Power Four programs swooped in their respective classes. But before you take your hats off and forget all the past woes of a tormenting 7-6 record in 2024, let’s match it up with the ceiling. Riley can’t just afford another futile season in his tenure. The 41-year-old isn’t sitting back, but losing even a single gun at this point can prove a tough move for his $88 million seat.

Riley started with a decent 11-3 at USC. Since then, it’s been a downhill ride. His 26-14 across three seasons wasn’t that bad on paper, but come on! Count the blueblood school’s history and imagine the red-hot fans betting their lives on the wins, and it would feel like solace. Paul Finebaum didn’t mince his words while slamming Riley for his average record both on the field and on the roster-building moves. The former Oklahoma coach is coming with a chip on his shoulder. The message is simple. Pursue, recruit, and win, and if not, gracefully find the exit.

Riley read the pulse and put in a formidable effort. Most of their commitments are five-star talents ranked in the Top 10, while 13 more check in as four-stars and another 11 check in as three-stars. But in a ripple effect, this graph has somewhat made them a bit controlling over the recruits. They want to attain the full attention of 5-star LB Xavier Griffin, putting a ban on his other official visits. This has reportedly gone wrong with Griffin, who chose to move on.

“A week ago at this time, USC had 29 commits. Now they have 27. Oh no, the horror for USC. So I don’t think that they’re recruiting class is about to crater. I don’t think they’re about to fall out of the top five. They’re still going to have one of the best classes in this upcoming cycle,” Spencer McLaughlin raised a red flag for the Trojans’ recruiting momentum. “I just think they made a mistake here.”

The Trojans have already suffered the loss of 23 players until March. More losses will only widen the gap between their hope for redemption and the brutal reality. Undermining the players’ psychology, Riley wanted to impose the same ‘no more flirting’ rule on his LB commit, Griffin. While it went quite fine with players like Keenyi Pepe and Malik Brooks, the 5-star recruit out of Gainesville High School chose his freedom.

A little more empathy and generosity could save their game here. After all, all they have is a devastating last-season record and a slim road to bounce back. Saying to your guy that we won’t allow you to check the other boxes proved to be an absolute misfire. Why? “You don’t have that luxury. You’re not Georgia. You’re not Alabama in the Saban years,” McLaughlin most rationally answered, “When you have a kid like this who has wanted to be a Trojan seemingly for the past several months, you do whatever it takes. You just do.”

What made Riley’s position even worse was Griffin’s potential. Given that Griffin is an in-state prospect and is one of the highest-ranked linebackers in this year’s class, he could be a great addition to another high school commit, three-star recruit Taylor Johnson. The 6’3, 200-pounder carries a tremendous athletic film and a violent promise on the sideline.

Does it, however, impact Riley’s USC tenure? Well, not immediately, but maybe!

Lincoln Riley’s fat buyout binds him to a tottering head coach chair 

Los Angeles has been more patient with Riley than they should be, according to Paul Finebaum. The SEC Network journalist gave a feasible explanation of why talents are slipping out of the Trojans’ grip. He blamed it on the sky-high expectations for a player at this point. In Riley’s ‘make or break’ year in California, nobody will get to have a test or trial.

They will simply have to show up and win games. It’s not that it’s something unusual for a franchise to have that ceiling, but it is kind of a turn-off for a kid who’s never been there before. They can’t just get away with one or two bad years. The sheer pressure on the HC directly translates to one player and another, and so on and so forth.

According to The Next Round podcast host Jim Dunaway, Riley continues his tenure as a head coach not because USC hopes for a magical rebound. In reality, they just stick to effective money management. Dunaway dropped a bombshell, saying, “One athletic director, blue-blood AD, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said, ‘USC would gladly fire Lincoln Riley if they could get out of his contract.” It’s all about the $88 million buyout clause forcing the Trojans to make a compromise.