Week 8 of college football is shaping up to be a wild ride. Tennessee at Alabama? Check for a great game. Ole Miss at Georgia. Another check. USC at Notre Dame. Another check. But away from these key SEC and B1G matchups, there’s one game that can produce a surprising result. Interestingly, it won’t be considered an upset.

In his preview of the upcoming games, ESPN analyst and College GameDay host Rece Davis talked about Vanderbilt’s Week 8 clash against LSU. The No. 10 Tigers travel away from home to take on No. 17 Commodores, with both programs sitting at 5-1 records. Rece Davis’ take? This Vanderbilt team is no longer the underdog you write off. And thus, in this high-stakes SEC matchup, Davis sincerely leans towards the Commodores.

“I want to go against the grain and go against what your inherent body of work and experience tells you that Vanderbilt is not going to win this game,” Davis told Pete Thamel on the ESPN College Football Show. “I’m going to go with Vanderbilt. I think they’re favored. It’s not crazy. They’re favored.” The oddsmakers have Vanderbilt as a slight favorite, favored by 2.5 points.

And it seems like the betting public agrees, with 60% of wagers expecting Vanderbilt to cover the spread. But there is some concrete evidence to support this edge. The Commodores’ high-powered offense is seventh nationally, averaging 43.2 points per game. They sit at the top in offensive efficiency with 0.688 points per play. Their third-down conversion rate is ranked 2nd in the country with 56.25%.

Sure, Vanderbilt’s recent 30-14 loss against Alabama raises some doubts over them. The Commodores struggled in the second half that day, managing to score just 14 points. But keeping all this in mind, their home-field edge against the Tigers and recent form give them the edge here.

Meanwhile, LSU cools off a bit on offense. LSU’s recent road struggles, like their 2-5 ATS record away from home, add to the challenge, though they still have a reputation for good cover performance in October, going 8-1 ATS recently. But Vanderbilt is significantly hungrier after their loss against the LSU Tigers.

“We’ve been doubted each and every day. That Alabama loss made us hungrier,” running back Sedrick Alexander said. “We are trying to go 1-0 each and every day, and we obviously didn’t go 1-0 last week, but we knew that we didn’t play up to the standard of Vanderbilt football.”

The Commodores’ running game took a hit against the Tide. Vanderbilt ripped off 126 yards on 12.7 per carry in the first half, but in the second half, they barely got anywhere with just 9 yards on the ground. Plus, Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia faced a red-zone fumble and interception against the Tide.

Vanderbilt needs to limit those mistakes against the Tigers’ defense, which ranks fifth nationally in scoring. The Tigers’ defense allowed just 11.8 points per game this season. The key to cracking LSU’s tough defense lies first in patience.

The Commodores need to make those clutch plays when it counts, bouncing back after losses and converting in key moments. “If there is a way for LSU to put up points,” Davis added. “It is certainly through the air and not on the ground. But I’m gonna trust Pavia with this one.”

LSU’s running game has been sputtering all season. The Tigers averaged just about 3.1 yards per carry with no consistent rush threat to keep defenses honest. Even their quarterback, Garrett Nussmeier, has struggled to connect deep, completing only 1 of 7 attempts on throws over 20 yards this year, despite having one of the strongest arms in college football.

On top of that, his nagging torso injury is a hindrance to his deep passing. On the other hand, Vanderbilt averages an impressive 208.7 rushing yards per game. And LSU ranks 21st nationally in rush defense, allowing just 102.5 yards. So the battle in the trenches will determine a lot.

LSU’s QB struggles

Now, LSU’s only hope is Garrett Nussmeier for their matchup against Vanderbilt. This is because his turnover problems are still looming large, plus his ball security remains a concern. Against South Carolina, Nussmeier threw two interceptions, marking his first multi-pick game since last November’s matchup with Alabama. But despite the miscues, he managed to throw for 254 yards and two touchdowns, showing just how pivotal he is to the Tigers’ offense.

Plus, it’s not just his fault. He’s fighting off pressure thanks to an offensive line that has been inconsistent at best. Nussmeier took some big hits, which compounds the risk of injury and stunts offensive rhythm. The young QB has also been dealing with an abdominal injury sustained in preseason camp. The running game, which posted a season-best 166 yards against the Gamecocks, needs to become more reliable to take heat off Nussmeier.

The offensive line creating more running lanes is critical to this plan. During the South Carolina game, commentators like Cade Cubelic highlighted the line’s ongoing struggles to hold up against tough fronts. “LSU had some real breakdowns in protection,” he said. “That offensive line continues to struggle, and this is a good front you’re playing now.” All these issues need to be fixed before the Tigers face the Commodores.