Amidst the fervor around round 2 of the CFP, one matchup is largely getting overlooked. Penn State faces Boise State in a standalone spot on NYE to commence the festivities in more ways than one. The last game of the year is the first of the quarter-final stage. Such is the contortion of the revamped playoff format that the Broncos, who were afforded a bye into this round, are actually massive underdogs. The reasons for Penn State’s perceived superiority are multi-faceted. One underlying wrinkle has become conspicuous.

It’s not hyperbolic to say the Spencer Danielson-led Broncos go as far as Ashton Jeanty takes them. The Heisman finalist RB has rekindled the dissipating eminence of the position in an era where the football travels through the air more. Speaking of which, their QB Maddux Madsen is perhaps the unsung hero, facilitating for Jeanty to thrive. Seems like he’ll continue to have to defer to his teammate, owing to the primary strength of the opposition defence. “Maddog” Madsen is unequivocally standing on the precipice of his biggest challenge yet. Ex-CFB player turned analyst Adam Breneman shed light on just why the Nittany Lions are primed to neutralise his threat and, by extension, are heavily favored to win.

Previewing the game over in the College Football Power Hour podcast, Breneman said, “Tom Allen, Penn State’s defensive coordinator, does such a great job of just confusing opposing quarterbacks. If you watch Penn State, there is never a time where their defensive look appears the same pre-snap to a quarterback in the same drive. It is always changing. The picture is always changing pre and post-snap.” He proceeded to shout out a threat the likes of which Maddux Madsen hasn’t faced while traversing the Mountain West.

“Add on top of that, the pressure from Abdul Carter,” said Breneman. Spencer Danielson has stated edge rusher Carter is the best defensive player in the country. “Tom Allen does such a great job of putting Abdul Carter in [advantageous] situations where he has a matchup. They move him all over the field, and that allows him to win 1 on 1. Combine that with some of the pressure packages Tom Allen does. There’s so many different things that Penn State does on defense. Which then leads to the interceptions. It leads to quarterbacks being confused.” he reiterated.

Penn State generated 3 interceptions in their round 1 tie against Indiana. However, that facet may not be as prominent with Madsen under center.

For starters, Indiana throws the ball a lot more than Boise State does. This inadvertently leads to more picks. Plus. Maddux Madsen has protected the football all year. He has 3 INTs on the season, the fewest in the FBS for quarterbacks with 300 or more attempts. That said, the numbers can be a little misleading since he’s not the primary component the offense goes through. That’s Jeanty. But in this spot, Madsen may need to take more onus and air it at a higher clip than usual. 

Maddux Madsen cannot lean on Ashton Jeanty’s prowess to be enough

Tom Allen, in tandem with HC James Franklin, has probably spent the Christmas period conjuring ways to deal with Ashton Jeanty. He’s still going to get his yardage, but it may not come as freely. The offense will have to be a two-headed monster, with the passing game complimenting the run game, so Jeanty can find some breathing room. In addition, it’s possible that Penn State will take an early lead, and explosive plays will be the only way back in.

Madsen will have to be at his apex. He’s been a mixed bag for the most part. While his 62% completion rate isn’t poor, it’s very volatile. Madsen has had games as high as 84 per cent, as well as ones with 45 per cent. He averages over 208 yards/game and has 22 TDs on the year. However, it’s only right to adjust that for the secondary he’s about to face up against. The cracks begin to show, and they explain why Penn State is a -11.5 point favorite.

There’s a lot on the line at this Fiesta Bowl, a venue Boise State has pulled one of the biggest upsets in the history of the sport already, in 2007. Spencer Danielson has pleaded with people to “Please count us out” as he rallies his troops. He’s got more than just a semi-final berth on the line. A win will secure Danielson a cool $132,000 bonus. He’ll hope Madsen and his comrades take this opportunity by the proverbial scruff of the neck and do the unthinkable. It wouldn’t take much to creep doubt into James Franklin’s mind, with his dubious big-game record.