UCLA dives into this weekend with a trip to Northwestern, where they will be looking to flip a 0-3 start under their new HC, Tim Skipper. The oddsmakers have the Bruins as the underdogs in this game. Northwestern is favored by around 6.5 points, with UCLA sitting around +185 to +190 on the money line. Although UCLA’s recent form hasn’t been pretty, as they fell 10-3 to New Mexico before the bye, the market still gives them a chance to tidy up their execution, especially because they have Nico Iamaleava at the helm. And today, a big voice in college football is cheering for Iamaleava, and that is Nick Saban.

Nick Saban gave his vote of confidence to UCLA as his superdog play, delivering a playful message on College GameDay. When talking about his pick, he said, “I’m taking UCLA. I’m having a heart-to-heart with Nico right here. I’ve never rooted for you for the whole time you were in Tennessee, but I love your a– right now.”

Saban leaning towards UCLA shows that he sees the pathway to their win. It means UCLA has tempo, explosives, and the ability to make him some money. In games like these, a quarterback’s poise will often decide where the game will lean. And all that pressure is on Nico now, because the most successful coach in College Football is rooting for him.

Under Superdog rules, a pick must be at least +4.5. Then a cover (when the underdog beats the spread without necessarily winning) will award 5 points, and an outright win will award 5 points (plus the spread). A push awards 1 point.  So, can Nico Iamaleava do it? Well, Iamaleava’s early UCLA stint has been a mixed bag statistically.

And Nick Saban is ready to ignore it for this matchup. Iamaleava has 608 passing yards and three touchdowns with three interceptions under his belt. His QBR is hovering around the low 50s in three starts. His performance could be seen through two lenses. First, he is performing subpar before he lacks weapons around him. And second, he was good in Tennessee because he had good weapons around him. We’ll need more data since the sample he has shown still places him in the middle of the fence. And some of it could very well be found in today’s game.

But the Bruins do have pieces to make Nick Saban’s cheering worth it, even if they have to figure out the execution part of it. It all starts with Iamaleava’s arm talent and a new scheme that can stress opponents’ defenses on both axes. Moreover, we might see a new defensive scheme, as the old DC was let go of, so there’s a potential for better performance on that front too. Northwestern plays fast. They control a lot of tempo, but they fail to create plays and take advantage of their quick starts, and that’s where UCLA can jump in. Make them make mistakes during snaps, and the game will slide to your side.

The numbers say Northwestern should be in command, but the door is still open for UCLA if Iamaleava stacks some good series and the defense trims some self-inflicted wounds. They are also coming off a bye week under a new HC, so it’s all the more likely for them to be rejuvenated and ready to go. If Saban’s pep talk lands the right way, he should be making some money today.

UCLA at a crossroads

UCLA’s football journey has gone beyond the field now. The athletic department now finds itself amidst a rolling campus protest van flashing “$7 Million buyout for UCLA’s AD? Failure never paid so well.” The public sentiment has moved from frustration with coaching to a much larger scrutiny of the direction the athletic department is heading. This scrutiny was intensified after the dismissal of DeShaun Foster. AD Martin Jarmond’s contract runs through 2029 and is supported with a robust compensation structure, but the results do not justify either.

When he faced the media after Foster’s exit, Jarmond had to answer these questions. He said, “I’m the athletic director; ultimately, I’m responsible for a hire, I understand that,” while adding, “I think you make the best decisions with the circumstances and the resources that you have to work with.” This is fair accountability from his side, but this is still no justification for the condition this major program is in right now. He still preserves his job, but now the scoreboard will be the only thing telling the truth, and his tenure relies on that scoreboard.