Ohio State absolutely demolished Purdue 34-10 on Saturday, extending its winning streak to 13 games and improving to 9-0 on the season. Jeremiah Smith once again put on a clinic, racking up 137 receiving yards, more than Purdue’s entire team managed through the air. On paper, it was another dominant performance. But after the final whistle, former Georgia star and current analyst David Pollack issued a stark warning. And it should make Buckeyes fans nervous heading into their annual rivalry clash up north.

“You’re going to play a team up north soon, and you’re going to travel to their place, and the team that wins the rushing battle wins that game,” Pollack cautioned. “And you’re going to have to be physical enough to win up front because the weather’s going to suck. You won’t be able to rely on Tate. You won’t be able to rely on Smith to win and throw deep balls if snow’s coming down like crazy. So, you got to have that physicality.”

Pollack’s concerns are backed by some troubling statistics. Ohio State’s rushing offense ranks 69th nationally. It is averaging just 155.11 yards per game through its first nine contests. That’s a far cry from what you’d expect from a national title contender. The Buckeyes are averaging 4.55 yards per carry as a team. It might sound respectable until you realize they’ve been feasting on inferior competition for much of the season. 

Against Purdue, Ohio State managed 170 rushing yards. But that came against a Boilermakers defense that’s given up plenty all season long. When you dig deeper into the numbers, the ground game simply hasn’t been consistent enough to inspire confidence in a potential weather-worn slugfest.​

The weather factor Pollack mentioned isn’t some hypothetical nightmare scenario either. Late November in Ann Arbor is notoriously brutal. And this year looks no different. Columbus was expected to see its first snow of the season around November 9-10, with temperatures plunging into the mid-20s at night. Michigan’s climate is even harsher.

And when these two teams meet on November 29, the chances of snow, sleet, or freezing rain are very real. In those conditions, the ball becomes slippery, receivers struggle to make cuts, and quarterbacks lose accuracy on deep throws. 

The passing game that Ohio State has relied on all season, with Sayin’s 2,188 yards through the air and Jeremiah Smith’s 725 receiving yards, becomes significantly less effective. You can’t count on throwing the ball 40 times when the wind is whipping and snow is accumulating on the field.​

That’s where Bo Jackson comes into the picture. The freshman running back has been a pleasant surprise for Ohio State this season. He has led the team with 538 rushing yards on 81 carries, a solid 6.6 yards per attempt. Jackson posted a strong performance against Penn State with 75 yards on 14 carries, showing he can handle the big-game pressure. 

But the problem is that one quality running back, no matter how talented, can’t shoulder the entire load in a grinding, physical matchup against a desperate Michigan team fighting for pride. CJ Donaldson has been solid with 266 yards and seven touchdowns, but he’s averaging just 4 yards per carry. James Peoples has chipped in 221 yards but hasn’t found the end zone yet. Beyond Jackson, there’s no one who consistently strikes fear into opposing defenses.​

The reality is that Ohio State’s rushing attack is too dependent on one freshman who, despite his talent, is still learning the college game. Against Michigan’s defense in nasty weather, the Buckeyes will need multiple backs who can pound the rock between the tackles and control the clock. Right now, they don’t have that depth or consistency. Unless the Buckeyes figure out how to establish a more balanced, physical rushing attack in the next three weeks, all their offensive firepower might not be enough when it matters most.

Redemption on Ryan Day’s mind

Ohio State won the national championship this January at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. However, Columbus was not entirely satisfied. For they failed to get past Michigan last November. However, breezing past week 11 undefeated, fans have a gut feeling that this time, the victory will be theirs. “Nobody wants to win against them (Michigan) more than we do, more than I do,” Ryan Day declared last week in a conversation with On3’s Chris Low. 

Ryan Day’s 1-4 Michigan record is his chink in his otherwise shiny armor. But he no longer needs to worry about that. After the Penn State game, the Buckeyes’ upcoming slate does not have a challenging unit until the last week of November. “Ohio State fans cannot wait for the Michigan game,” says Steve Muench in a conversation with Todd McShay, “because they really don’t know what they have right now.” The offense is coming together, averaging 36.3 points per game over the season.​

Even after the talent exodus to the NFL, Day’s offensive weapons are as sharp and explosive. “Jeremiah Smith is going to be a top-five pick when he comes out,” adds Steve Muench. “I think Carnell Tate’s going to be a first-round pick. Bo Jackson, the running back, is coming on and looks awesome.” He continues to add to his point, saying Ohio State is the best team. In the Big Ten, star QB Julian Sayin ranks No. 4 in passing yards, with 2,188 yards. “You have all these things in place,” Muench noted. 

However, OSU’s rushing game might pose a challenge against Michigan. When the Buckeyes steamrolled against Wisconsin, 34-0, fans pointed out their frustration with the run game. Jackson is edged out by one spot under the Big Ten’s Top 10 rushing leaders, with Donaldson coming in at No. 33. Their run game still needs some work. Last year, that’s what happened. Unfortunately, the Buckeyes had a bad day, and the team needed to exploit their ground coverage. But you can’t suddenly do it if you haven’t been great during the season. But Ryan Day is determined to change the narrative this year.​