The upcoming Ole Miss vs Oklahoma Sooners game is shaping up as a massive playoff decider for both squads. The Rebels are coming off a tough 43-35 loss against Georgia. While that stunk, Ole Miss doesn’t have time to sulk about it now, as the Sooners could seriously dent their CFP chances. Conversely, No. 13 Oklahoma holds a similar 6-1 mark and has a 42.9% CFP chance. But beyond the playoff implications, this game is also pivotal for Lane Kiffin.

With Billy Napier recently fired by Florida, rumors swirled about Kiffin potentially moving to the Gators. However, Ole Miss is already working hard to keep Kiffin in Oxford. AD Keith Carter has proactively talked with Kiffin’s agent, aiming to avoid any offseason “silly season” coaching chaos. But all in all, everything falls on how things go in Oklahoma.

Sports analysts like Stanford Steve aren’t leaving any stone unturned in calling this a make-or-break moment for both teams. “We got a playoff leverage situation here,” Steve said on the Pat McAfee show. “This [is] looking like an elimination game for Ole Miss and Oklahoma. Oklahoma’s a little bit of a favorite… Oklahoma’s got a tougher remaining schedule, but this is a monster spot for Ole Miss.” 

The betting lines have Oklahoma favored by -5.5 points. Sure, it’s a relatively narrow margin, but enough to show that punters respect this Oklahoma team. The total points, set around 54.5, also reflect a potentially high-scoring battle. But with Oklahoma’s stingy defense, it will probably keep Ole Miss’s scoring in check. Plus, Oklahoma boasts a solid track record in Week 9 games. The Sooners won 16 of their last 20 matchups in the season, adding that historical edge that bettors love. But Ole Miss isn’t a pushover.

They have a 6-1 recent record and have looked impressive, especially at home. The 43-35 loss against Georgia is what’s creating more doubts. After letting Ole Miss score 14 points in the third quarter, the Bulldogs completely shut the Rebels out in the fourth quarter. “There weren’t a ton of explosive plays, but it was a slow death,” Kiffin said. “Thirty-four first downs. That’s hard to do against the service (scout) team.” These things are clearly avoided in front of the Sooners’ defense.

The Sooners rank No. 1 in total defense, No. 2 in scoring defense, and No. 4 in pass defense. Brent Venables’ approach includes bigger, stronger defensive linemen. This beefed-up defensive line, featuring stars like Damonic Williams and Jayden Jackson, has been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks.

Per Pro Football Focus, Oklahoma’s defense is flat-out dominant. They’re also second in success rate against both the pass (70.3%) and the run (73.8%), and give up just 0.71 points per drive. The relief factor remains; Kiffin knows what he is up against. “One, it’s phenomenal prep — a film study of signals,” Lane Kiffin said about OU’s defense.

“They do a great job of that. If you study people really well, you have enough confidence as a coach to go after those.” Lane Kiffin has always been one to mix football intelligence with a bit of flair.

Lane Kiffin’s unrealistic pitch

With his game against Oklahoma looming, he is putting forward a pitch that might interest the CFP selection committee. “What would Vegas do? They’re the best at what they do, by far. Way better than any committee, way better than anybody could. When you look at teams, and you’re … comparing them, if it were a neutral game, what would Vegas make the spread? And that should tell you who the better team is,” Kiffin said during Wednesday’s SEC Coaches Teleconference.

Kiffin’s perspective primarily focuses on how Vegas spreads are objective, data-driven indicators of which team is truly effective. The oddsmakers analyze injuries, matchups, player efficiency, and trends to set the likeliest outcomes. Bias doesn’t really come into play in this. For example, last season, the SEC had multiple three-loss teams like Ole Miss, Alabama, and South Carolina, who missed the playoffs. On the other hand, one-loss teams from lesser leagues like Indiana and SMU got in.

Despite the SEC squads’ stronger schedules, the committee favored the teams with fewer losses. So, what Kiffin means is that Vegas odds basically cut out any conference bias the committee might have. It’ll keep things more balanced across the Power Four. This idea could be a game-changer for the SEC, which currently dominates with five teams in the AP Top 12 and 10 in the Top 25 after Week 8 of the 2025 season.

Are you up for it? Let us know in the comments section below.