It’s been 24 years since Rich Rodriguez last faced a hard reset in Morgantown—and if Phil Steele is right, he might be walking straight into a rerun. Back in 2001, Rich Rod’s first year at the helm, WVU stumbled to a grim 3-win season. Now? The vibes are low-key, starting to feel a little too familiar. Despite the nostalgic energy swirling around his return, the veteran college football insider has the Mountaineers staring down the Big 12 basement again. And let’s just say—he’s not backing off.

Back in December 2024, after a 6–7 season under Neal Brown, West Virginia hit the nostalgia button and brought Rich Rodriguez back home. But Phil Steele is not betting his stock on Rich Rod’s homecoming season. Last month, Steele dropped his Big 12 preseason rankings and parked West Virginia dead last. That bold pick stirred up plenty of heat from fans, critics, and optimistic diehards ready to roll out the welcome mat for Rodriguez’s revival. But when he joined host Mike Asti on July 17 to talk about his 2025 preview, Steele didn’t flinch:

“I’ve read a lot of the articles, and everybody’s saying, ‘Hey, I’m picking them last. Picking them last.’ Well, everybody else is picking them 14th or 15th, for God’s sake. So, it’s not like I’m picking a middle-of-the-road West Virginia team last. I’m picking a team that everybody is seeing as in the bottom of the conference…Now, there’s two reasons for it.”

Reason One: Roster Mayhem

Steele’s first red flag? The Mountaineers’ completely overhauled roster. WVU added more than 60 new players during the offseason—including over 30 transfers—and a good chunk of them didn’t even show up for spring ball. That’s not just turnover—it’s an identity crisis: “When we got to the end of it, this was after spring practice, after the portal, and players are being signed—he’s like, “Phil, I haven’t even seen these kids yet. I can’t tell you anything about them.’ They’ve got over 30 players that did not participate in spring practice coming  in the fall as transfers, and now they’re going to have to come together as a team on the field.” It’s a fair point. Chemistry matters. And with most of the roster joining in the fall, WVU’s cohesion will be forged on the fly, in the heart of one of college football’s most unforgiving conferences.

Steele compared WVU’s situation to Brent Brennan’s 2024 Arizona squad: tons of talent, but not enough time to mesh. “You look at Arizona—second year for Brent Brennan. What was his problem last year? Last year, he had a whole bunch of transfer,s and it was his first year with the program, and it sure as h— took time to get it together. They went 4–8 last year.”

Then comes reason two: the Gauntlet Schedule.

Phil Steele kept it real about the schedule: “The second thing with West Virginia is the schedule. And if you look at the schedule this year—they’re hosting Texas Tech. Texas Tech’s one of the top teams in the conference. They’re hosting TCU. TCU’s one of the top teams in the conference. They’re hosting Utah. Utah’s one of the top teams in the conference. I think they’re going to be an underdog in all three of those games.” That schedule isn’t doing Rodriguez any favors.

WVU’s 2025 slate is brutal—ranked fifth toughest in the Big 12 and 32nd nationally. WVU has just 4 Big 12 home games. Three are against projected league powerhouses. The other five conference games? All on the road. That’s a lot of traveling with a team still learning each other’s names. They might be underdogs in eight or nine Big 12 matchups—and when you’re still trying to build chemistry on the fly? That’s a brutal hand to play.

According to Steele, this isn’t about doubting Rich Rod’s ability. It’s about the clock. “I think Rich Rod’s going to do a tremendous job here at West Virginia,” he said. He pulled it off at Jacksonville State after being picked dead last. But this year in Morgantown? It’s a full-on rebuild—and nobody’s expecting a miracle overnight.

How’s Rich Rodriguez’s 2025 campaign looking? Another 2001-type season?

The vibes from Morgantown aren’t exactly championship-caliber. If anything, they feel eerily similar to Rich Rodriguez’s first go-round as WVU head coach in 2001. That year? The Mountaineers went 3–8 and were winless in the Big East. A harsh welcome back. But also a building year, one that led to dominance a few seasons later.

Could 2025 be 2001 all over again?

Oddsmakers think so. FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars all have WVU’s win total pegged at 5.5, with heavy money on the under. That means Vegas thinks a 5–7 season is more likely than not. The odds of winning the Big 12? Somewhere between +5000 and +7000, firmly in longshot land. And if you’re daydreaming about a playoff run? You’ll find WVU at +100,000 for a national title. In short: Don’t bet the rent.

There’s a slight chance the Mountaineers scrape together six wins and a bowl invite. That’s the optimistic view. But based on roster instability, the tough schedule, and untested chemistry, a repeat of Rodriguez’s 2001 debut isn’t off the table.

Still, history offers some hope. That 2001 squad, as bad as it looked, laid the groundwork for greatness. If Rodriguez gets time—and patience—he might just cook up another golden era. But for now? A quick suffering arc.

Phil Steele’s not throwing shade for the sake of headlines. He’s looking at the same chaos we all see: 60+ new players, a head coach still learning his own depth chart, and a schedule that looks like a Big 12 minefield. Rich Rod might be the right man for the job, but 2025? It’s looking like another rough entry point.