TCU Horned Frogs, after going all the way to the national title game against Georgia in 2022, regressed to just 5 wins in 2023. Was the 2022 season a fluke, and are the aspirations too big to replicate the second time? Or do TCU fans still carry the fire burning red-hot of TCU consistently contending for Big 12 and national championship titles? At least, according to head coach Sonny Dykes, that’s the benchmark TCU has set for the 2025 season, except there’s a little complication in that plan.

Even though TCU had a rough go in 2023 with just 5 wins, they bounced back big time with their new quarterback, Josh Hoover, and ended the season with 9 wins. It wasn’t a trophy-winning year for them, but they still have their rockstar QB, who threw for a crazy 3,949 yards last season. The good news? He’s returning for 2025! That might be why Sonny Dykes is already hyped about going for the Big 12 title next season.

“I think we’re at that point as a program where if we’re not in the Big 12 championship game, it’s probably not a successful season,” declared Dykes. He even expanded that Big 12 title glory would be on his to-do list every year. “That’s where we want to be, and we think we’re a team, year in and year out, that should be in the Big 12 title hunt.” Now, according to Joel Klatt, those plans are too lofty to think about, courtesy of TCU’s “tough schedule.”

Joel Klatt, on his 13th August podcast episode, discussed the teams that could make a wildcard entry to the playoffs in 2025. However, in that list, Klatt showed reluctance to put TCU, due to a “seven-game stretch,” where one misstep would cost them dearly. For context, starting from the third week, Sonny Dykes will face SMU, ASU (on the road), Colorado, Kansas State (on the road), Baylor, WVU (on the road), and lastly Iowa State, followed by BYU on the road. And all of these teams, according to Klatt, have the potential to create problems for TCU.

“They’re going to have to face SMU. That’s a non-league game. They’ve got to go to Arizona State, which just went to the playoffs. They host Colorado; they’re a wild card, in particular with those New York quarterbacks, JuJu Lewis and Kaidon Salter. They will go to Kansas State, not an easy place to play. They have to host Baylor. I love Baylor. They got to go to West Virginia, not an easy place to play. And they host Iowa State,” said Joel Klatt, and concluded, “I think it’s just too much to overcome.” But can they still defy this prediction?

Hoover is already being touted as the Heisman trophy dark horse, with analysts like Chip Patterson leaning on his “crazy stats.” Moreover, the WR room, despite losing Jack Bech and Savion Williams, has new additions like Joseph Manjack coming from Houston after receiving 928 yards in the last two seasons. Moreover, the addition of Jordan Dwyer, who notched up 1,192 yards last year for Idaho, is the cherry on top. As for other units, they also look well-oiled.

The O-line also returns with key players like Cade Bennett, Carson Bruno, and Coltin Deerry, giving elite pass protection to Josh Hoover. And that’s probably the reason why even Joel Klatt talked about a way through which TCU can overcome the “tough schedule“ odds.

Josh Hoover urged to do the unthinkable as Joel Klatt lays down a strategy for Sonny Dykes’ success

While TCU’s offense under Kendal Briles was one of the best in FBS, as it ranked 6th in passing yards with 314.2 yards per game, the defense was still a sore spot.The team allowed 24.6 points per game, being ranked 63rd nationally, with 83rd in rushing yards allowed. Not just that, but Andy Avalos’s defense struggled on third-down defense, due to which opponents converted massively, leading to five 30+ point games. And according to Joel Klatt, that needs to change this year.

“They (TCU) would have to take a substantial step forward on the defensive side, and Hoover would have to play out of his mind. So while I like TCU and I understand the optimism that some have with TCU, I didn’t pick them here,” said Klatt as he omitted TCU from his playoff contenders list. The verdict?

Josh Hoover playing “out of his mind” as Klatt talked wouldn’t be a tough ask, considering he remained loyal and rejected a $2 million Tennessee offer. Moreover, the quality he brings is undoubtedly world-class, building on his record-breaking 2024 season. However, under year 2 of Andy Avalos, the defense has some decent additions like Ansel Din-Mbuh and Nana Osafo-Mensah, but largely the in-house belief seems to be prevailing for Sonny Dykes, and we don’t know yet how that will work out.