In Fort Worth, there’s a sense of cautious optimism with a tinge of unease. Sonny Dykes is heading into year four with TCU, and while a 9–4 finish and a New Mexico Bowl win seem like signs of stability. There’s more lurking beneath the surface. TCU Horned Frogs are not far removed from their magical 2022 run to the national title game, but the bounce-back from that dream season hasn’t exactly been smooth. The Big 12 is changing fast, and the pressure’s ratcheting up. One Big 12 coach and one Big 12 insider believes 2025 might be a true fork-in-the-road moment for Dykes.

“TCU up and down,” said 247Sports’ Brien Hanley on Big 12 Insiders. “Here’s the thing, though, about TCU: they won more games last year than what people realize. They won nine games. They won more games than what people actually realized. I know people wrote him off because of that disaster at home. Basically two games. Gave away the game against UCF at home when they were up big. Gave that game away and then getting whipped by Houston. So, it’s those two games… people are like, ‘Oh, well, they’re not any good.’ They won nine games last year. They turned it around.”

Hanley isn’t all in on the sunny-side outlook either. “It was a two-year hangover in my opinion—or a year and a half hangover—from what happened in the national championship game. It just was. But they got things turned around at the end of the year and were actually playing really good football,” he said. “But Sonny Dykes, I think it’s a make or break year because I think they can finish in the upper half of the Big 12 or they could finish middle of the pack. And I would bet that TCU fans think they should be better than just a middle-of-the-pack finish in the Big 12. Matter of fact, I’m certain of that.”

Sonny Dykes’ contract runs through 2028, but like most college deals, the ink isn’t exactly permanent. Another 8- or 9-win year probably keeps him in good standing, but teasing with .500—or worse—could heat the seat fast. Especially with Big 12 parity being what it is: last season, TCU tied for fifth place, but they were also just a game out of first. That thin margin for error makes the 2025 campaign feel like a verdict is coming.

The foundation isn’t weak. The Frogs return QB1 Josh Hoover, who showed flashes last fall, and added the top freshman class in the Big 12, per the On3 Industry Rankings. Receiver Eric McAlister and LB Namdi Obiazor are also back to give the team a core of experienced playmakers on both sides of the ball. Sonny Dykes and staff didn’t go full-throttle in the portal, bringing in just nine transfers—second fewest in the conference—but that could speak more to internal confidence than complacency.

What’s working in Dykes’ favor is continuity. Many key 2024 contributors are still on the roster, including a freshman class that now has a year of development under its belt. It’s not the splashiest approach, but if chemistry clicks and the staff can tighten screws where it matters—like finishing games—TCU has a real shot to finish in the Big 12’s top tier. But anything less might feel like backpedaling for a fanbase that got a taste of national relevance. 2025 might be the season that tells us if Sonny Dykes is the long-term architect—or just a postscript to the greatest run in school history.

How can two people say the same about Sonny Dykes’ 2025 stakes?

In the wild world going from the penthouse to the hot seat doesn’t take long—and Sonny Dykes might be learning that in real time. According to one anonymous Big 12 coach in Athlon Sports’ 2025 could be the season that defines Dykes’ long-term future at TCU.

“It’s crazy to say this about a team who played in the national championship, but this is the season that really matters when it comes to Sonny,” the coach said. And he’s not wrong. The Horned Frogs, just two seasons removed from their storybook run to the title game, have restocked the cupboards. Dykes and his staff attacked the recruiting trail with a purpose, landing what’s widely regarded as one of the Big 12’s best signing classes. “They built depth and recruited to fill every deficiency on that five-win team,” the coach added.

Now comes the “so what?” moment. The coach continued, “Now what? They have the best signing classes in the league, and that matters because they’re also building NIL to keep the kids they want.” The coach in question sees TCU as a team that should be able to compete on paper. But failing to live up to those expectations and underperforming could potentially be damaging to Dykes’ reputation in the program.