It’s been an interesting tenure at TCU Horned Frogs for head coach Sonny Dykes. In his first season with the program, he took them to the national championship game. In his second year, a 5-7 record raised eyebrows, as only one of the victories came against a team that finished with a winning record. By year three, he found a result somewhere in the middle at 9-4. Now, dubbed as a “mid-pack” team in the conference making moves, he’s looking to once again take a leap to the top of the Big 12 in 2025.

So, the question is simple but tricky: are the Horned Frogs closer to another run at the top, or are they destined to hover in the middle? ESPN’s Rece Davis made his case that TCU deserves more attention. “I think that the first team on my list that I would say has an argument. It’s a team I will see calling the game on Labor Day night is TCU. Sonny Dykes very quietly, Dan, they won nine games last year. They finished six and three just a game out of that tie for first place in the Big 12.” The key here is Josh Hoover, who revived faith in Fort Worth people again, after throwing for nearly 4,000 yards last season.

Player retention is another, “they’ve got a lot of guys back, a lot of continuity on that team.” So, “I’m kind of high on TCU being in the mix in the Big 12.” Dan Wetzel doubled down on that thought, pointing out just how much Hoover’s rise mirrors the program’s improvement. “Well, yeah. I mean, they started, I think, three and three, so they finished with nine wins, so they got it going. They were a lot better late. Josh Hoover is a very, very promising quarterback as this whole league is just quarterback rich.” The defense. They return a bunch of guys that played a lot. We’ll see how they can do it.”

The analysts didn’t stop there. Davis hammered home the fine margins that define Fort Worth. “I agree. They do play 11 power four opponents. That’s tied with Baylor for the most in the country. And you’ll find when I look at previews, because it’s so hard to tell, so much of it is a bounce of the ball unless you’re uber talented.” A couple of other things to look at: how experienced is your offensive line? What did you do in turnovers? Last two years, TCU has been a total of minus three – six and minus seven the last two years. In 2022, when they ended up going to the playoffs and playing for the national championship, they were plus six. So, can they take care of the ball? Can they win the close games?

While the talking heads build cases on air, the real evidence is stacking up on the practice fields. TCU’s first full scrimmage of fall camp stretched nearly two hours, with full-tackle reps across every game situation: full-field drives, two-minute drills, red-zone offense. Coaches came away impressed with the physicality, especially in the trenches where continuity matters most. But a sore spot stood out—special teams miscues littered the day, with the kicking game flashing more red flags than comfort. In a league this tight, a missed field goal or bobbled punt can tilt the season.

Phil Steele, who has tracked Sonny Dykes’ evolution across stops, puts the offense front and center. Dykes has always been tied to the Air Raid, and now he has a passer who might run it at a playoff-level clip. “This year QB Hoover is back,” Steele wrote. “The RB’s will be more productive and they have a veteran Oline. This year my computer is calling for 418 ypg and 32.6 ppg.” On defense, bringing in DC Andy Avalos seemed to spark the Horned Frogs. So, with all that, will they take a leap? The numbers suggest the ceiling remains high. The question is whether Hoover and Avalos’ defensive strategy can eliminate the sloppiness in turnovers and special teams. That’s where this version of TCU stands, straddling the line between dark horse and Big 12 frontrunner.

Sonny Dykes’ depth meets its brutal schedule test

The spotlight may be on Josh Hoover and his Air Raid revival, but there’s another storyline unfolding in Fort Worth. TCU’s RB battle. Senior Kevorian Barnes and sophomore Jeremy Payne continue to split first-team reps, a duel that’s as much about complementing Hoover’s arm as it is about keeping the Frogs balanced. Whoever emerges, or if both carve roles, the Horned Frogs know their ground game will be critical when the throws aren’t there.

And that’s where the optimism kicks in. With 14 starters returning, Sonny Dykes has more continuity than he’s had in years. Steele captured it best: “This year they have 14 ret starters including QB Hoover. But they draw the Big12’s toughest schedule facing 6 of the top teams they have five B12 road games.” That’s the tradeoff—depth and experience on one side, a gauntlet on the other.

Dykes himself isn’t flinching. In fact, he’s leaning into the challenge, pointing out they “only took 10 guys in the portal” because of how strongly he feels about his locker room. He went as far as to call it “his deepest team,” and given the way Hoover has matured and the line has settled, that’s not idle coach-speak. The calendar is no cupcake. North Carolina, Arizona State, Kansas State, and BYU—all road games. That’s enough to test even the deepest roster. TCU isn’t short on talent; Steele even wrote, “Talent-wise TCU is nearly the top of the Big 12 with the biggest challenge a schedule.”