There’s a buzz in Austin, as Texas is rolling into the 2025 season with momentum and sky-high expectations. Fresh off a CFP run that ended in the semifinals against eventual champ OSU, the Longhorns are hungry for more. This time, it’s Arch Manning’s show. The former five-star has finally earned the keys to the offense, and he’s set to start, a move fans have been waiting on for three years. But don’t expect a red carpet Heisman welcome. Manning isn’t topping any preseason lists — yet. He’ll have to prove it on the field. And if he does, Texas just might be knocking on the national title door again.

However, the hype train for Arch Manning is full steam ahead. Public buzz says he’s the Heisman front-runner — and Vegas is buying in too.  Manning is sitting atop the odds board at +700 to win college football’s most coveted prize. Right behind him is LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier at +900. So, the race is wide open, but Manning’s name is already lighting up the marquee.

On the June 13th episode of On3, J.D. PicKell dropped a bold take about Manning. While the hype around Arch Manning is sky-high, PicKell wasn’t afraid to spotlight the scrutiny that would follow along. “With Arch Manning, I’m going to give him a pressure rating in the pressure cooker scale of a 9.4. Now, you could convince me this number should be higher. For Arch Manning, I have a 9.4 because I think a lot of the pressure for him is external — because it’s the last name, it’s the Texas logo, it’s the fact that he sat for a couple of years, it’s the fact that he’s in a spot now where his task is to be better than the previous quarterback of a Quinn Ewers, who got you to the semi-finals two years in a row,” said PicKell.

So, the message was clear — Manning’s challenge isn’t under center. It’s the weight of legacy, expectation, and history bearing down on every snap. But PicKell didn’t just highlight the pressure on Arch Manning — he explained why it’s not through the roof. He pointed to the strong support system around the young QB as a major reason for keeping the pressure rating light.

“But the reason why I don’t have this higher than a 9.4 for Arch Manning — the reason why he’s not in, like, the 98 category, 99 category — is because everything around him at Texas is actually in a pretty good spot. For my money, they’re going to run the football at a high level. CJ Baxter — he’s going to be back. Quintrevion Wisner — he’s back. They feel good internally about that O-line room, so therefore I’m not sweating that too, too much with what they lost up front,” said PicKell. Simply put, with weapons in the backfield and a sturdy O-line, Manning doesn’t have to do it all — just enough to keep Texas in the title hunt.

J.D. PicKell laid it out clearly — Arch Manning doesn’t need to be a superhero from day one. The Texas defense, in his words, “is going to be the best in America,” which gives Arch the breathing room most first-year starters only dream of. Look, Texas’ 2024 defense brought the heat all season long. The Longhorns locked down opponents, giving up just 283.4 yards per game and holding teams to 4.40 yards per snap over 16 matchups. Their secondary was lights out, ranking 3rd in the nation by allowing only 143.1 passing YPG. Simply put, Texas turned every Saturday into a grind for opposing offenses.

“Like, there’s a lot around Arch Manning to where I don’t think he has to be awesome from the — you know, I shouldn’t say from the jump — because from the jump, you’ve got to be good enough to go to Columbus, Ohio. After Ohio State, you don’t have to be Superman. You just got to get progressively better every single week and be ready to roll by November,” said PicKell. So, with elite talent surrounding him and time to settle in, the stage is set. All Arch needs to do is grow into the moment.

Arch Manning saw action in 10 games last season, throwing for 939 yards with nine TDs and just 2 picks. Now, the Longhorns are banking on those early reps—his time as a redshirt and spot starter—to pay off in a big way. This season marks his first as the full-time QB1, and expectations are sky-high in Austin. As J.D. PicKell put it, “So still, there’s a lot of pressure on the guy for all those reasons we mentioned. Still a lot of pressure for him to eventually get to a college football playoff-caliber kind of quarterback, when you play for the college football playoff — when you get towards, you know, that first weekend in December and play for — hopefully for Texas fans — an SEC title.”

Despite lingering concerns, Brian Kelly didn’t sugarcoat it.

Brian Kelly casts doubt on Arch Manning’s readiness

With SEC Media Days still weeks out, Brian Kelly isn’t waiting to stir the pot. As hype builds around Texas’s Arch Manning, the LSU coach is backing his own man, veteran Garrett Nussmeier. On ESPN with Rece Davis and Pete Thamel, Kelly made his stance crystal clear. “Look, we hear it every day because (Manning is) from Louisiana. … And listen, there’s another guy that hears it all the time and that’s Garrett Nussmeier,” said Kelly. “He’s committed, and more than anything else, he’s experienced. And in this league, you need to see the bullets flying. Ask Jayden Daniels when he threw for (80) yards against Auburn (in 2022). We were coming back on the plane, and I told Mike Denbrock and Joe Sloan at the time, ‘If we keep throwing for (80) yards, we’re not going to be together very long. We need (Daniels) to develop.“

For Kelly, experience matters — and he’s making sure the media remembers that. However, Brian Kelly didn’t hold back as he continued to make the case for Garrett Nussmeier. With the SEC spotlight looming, Kelly doubled down on why experience matters most under center. “All I’m saying is, Nussmeier has seen it. He knows what he’s going to get,” added Kelly. “There’s a confidence he’ll bring each and every game through experience, maybe even through some scar tissue, that’s going to allow him to be, I believe, the best quarterback.” Translation: For Kelly, battle-tested beats hype — and Nussmeier, he believes, is built for the big stage.

But Brian Kelly kept it real when asked about Arch Manning’s rise and the looming QB battle in the SEC. While he acknowledged Manning’s raw ability, Kelly leaned into one thing: experience.

“Now, Manning is extremely talented. But he’s got to go do it. And there’s going to be a couple of days where it doesn’t come out the way it’s supposed to,” continued Kelly. “How do you bounce back? How do you come back from that? How does it work the next week in your game plan? So there’s a lot out there. I can see the assessment of Manning; he’s an outstanding player. But I’ll take the guy that’s been in the SEC and seen what it looks like.” So, for Kelly, the lights are bright, but battle scars shine brighter.