The 40 Acres is buzzing again, and this time, it’s more than just preseason hype. With Quinn Ewers gone and the Arch Manning era finally underway, head coach Steve Sarkisian and the Texas Longhorns find themselves at a critical crossroads. The move to the SEC last season was a big leap. But now, it’s about survival and thriving with a true freshman star under center. Can they win in 2025?

Texas had already knocked on the playoff doors. Can they barge in now and win it all? After two years of flirting with greatness, Coach Sarkisian’s elite recruiting classes, stacked with blue-chip talent, have left the college football world wondering if the Longhorns finally live up to the billing. Maybe this year will be it. Even if they lose more than a couple of games. That’s not sarcasm. That came straight from a veteran Fox Sports analyst who’s seen enough football to recognize a dark horse before it bolts. 

Tim Brando’s claim hits different. In a scorching take on Crain & Company on August 1, he listed Texas at No. 5 in his top-15 preseason rankings while most media outlets got Steve Sarkisian’s team ranking anywhere from 1-4. Why? “They’re going to lose some games. And when I say games, that’s plural. That means two at least,” he said. “Now, if there is a team that could get there with three and skirt its way in, it’s definitely Texas. Why? Well, because of what they’ve done in the last couple of years, especially what they did a year ago and Arch Manning. Period. End of story… the chances are that they could lose three and still get in.” So what are those games that are giving Texas a big pushback? 

You already guessed it. The challenge for Texas and Arch Manning starts right from Week 1 when they meet the reigning national champions. It’s Ohio State that ended Texas’ season last year when they bounced the Longhorns from the playoff and ran the table for a natty. Then it’s trips to Florida and Georgia, both revenge games, both brutally tough.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly called out the shift in difficulty. “Texas benefited from an easier slate in 2024, with just three regular-season opponents finishing in the SP+ top 20,” he said. “But if Florida and Oklahoma improve as projected this fall, the Horns are looking at five such games, only one of which is in Austin. That’s the opposite of easy.” And he’s not wrong. The Bulldogs alone have a 31-game home win streak, and they made sure they crushed Texas last season to remind them that they’re still the SEC champs.

But what about Arch Manning? Is he really ready? Tim Brando thinks Arch has the goods, but the freshman bumps are inevitable. “The schedule is just too tough for a first-time starting quarterback knowing you’re the starter, not being inserted during a game as he has been,” he said. Still, he’s high on the QB, saying, “Unbeaten Heisman Trophy winner in his first year? No question in my mind. I just don’t think the schedule will allow for that quite to happen this year for him at Texas.”

And then, there are injury chances that could derail their hopes. Steve Sarkisian echoes that, too, saying they’ll limit Arch Manning’s run game this season. Running backs Quintrevion Wisner, CJ Baxter, and Christian Clark will carry the ground load. The goal is to keep their quarterback upright and slinging for 2025. And beyond?

Those betting on Arch Manning stock might want to hold

Arch Manning is the name. And while fans dream of him going pro next year, the smarter money says 2027 is the real target. CFB insider Hayes Fawcett has listed him among the crown jewels of the ‘Best Draft Class Ever’, alongside names like Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams. He’s only got two starts under his belt. Twelve more, if he stays healthy, would barely get him to 14. That’s far from the 25+ most top QBs have before jumping to the NFL. 

Even his uncles, Peyton and Eli Manning, stayed two extra years. “I keep telling people he’s a 2027 guy,” said ESPN’s Matt Miller in a College GameDay appearance back in April. But here’s where it gets weird with Cleveland entering the chat. Rumors are swirling about the Browns’ interest in Arch Manning, loud enough for owner Jimmy Haslam to throw fuel on it. “If you know the Manning family, I would bet that— and I don’t know Arch at all, okay— I bet he stays in college two years,” he said in a July 29 presser, clearly angling for the long play. 

Colin Cowherd connects even more dots with the Manning family ties, SEC boosterism, and Nick Saban. Again, he’s rumored to be eyeing a coaching comeback, possibly in Cleveland if Kevin Stefanski falters. And if the GOAT links up with the Mannings in 2027, you’ve got a storyline that might break the football world. But coming back to the present, Texas could absolutely lose three games. And still crash the playoffs. Because if Arch Manning is healthy and Texas wins the right ones, the committee and the sport won’t deny the dynasty in the making.