The Gators fired Billy Napier on October 19, and the search for his replacement has gotten messy before it even really started. Ole Miss’s Lane Kiffin has dominated the conversation since day one, but the path to him is way more complicated than anyone expected. And what if Kiffin is not even the top choice for Florida’s administration, as reports suggest?

“Some clarity on Kiffin vs Freeman for the Florida opening: it seems a lot of the administration preferred (Marcus) Freeman and the boosters and big money perferred and almost demanded Kiffin. We’ll see what happens,” shared NFL analyst Anand Nanduri, taking to his X account. 

Part of the allure is obvious. Kiffin, 50, is the closest thing to visor-wearing Steve Spurrier (without all the championships) in today’s college football. Brash, confident, and one of the best playcallers in the game, he’s built a reputation for quarterback development and offensive fireworks. Since the start of 2023, he’s gone 27-6 and notched signature wins over Georgia, South Carolina, and others. He already knows both the SEC and the state of Florida from his Florida Atlantic days, where he won two Conference USA titles in three years. For a program desperate to restore its swagger, he looks like the perfect fit. Marcus Freeman, meanwhile, represents the opposite kind of appeal.

He’s only 39 but already one of college football’s hottest young coaches. Florida’s administration reportedly sees him as a “shoot-your-shot” candidate– someone whose energy, recruiting acumen, and calm leadership could rejuvenate the program long-term. Add to that his success in positioning Notre Dame for a playoff run, and it makes him a dream hire for any major program.

But Freeman has little reason to leave South Bend. Notre Dame offers him a smoother playoff path, national reach, and the independence to recruit without the SEC’s weekly grind. His program has become more dynamic in NIL and player development, and his latest recruiting class, which outranks Brian Kelly’s at LSU, proves it. For a coach who converted to Catholicism, embraces the school’s values, and is thriving both culturally and competitively, Gainesville doesn’t offer much incentive.

Yet, Nanduri says that Freeman’s agent took the call and had “some initial interest based on a number that might have been offered.” But once that number was shut down, it became “an immediate no from his agent.” Freeman signed a six-year extension with Notre Dame less than a year ago that pays him around $9 million annually. That $9 million in itself is a bump from his initial paycheck of $7 million, bringing his total for the contract to $75 million. 

Plus, for Freeman, the path to the playoffs is smoother than Florida’s gauntlet of Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Notre Dame’s independence means Freeman can reach the postseason without surviving the SEC’s weekly battles. It’s no wonder Freeman shut the door quickly on Florida’s call.

As for Kiffin? 

He knows his name sits squarely atop Florida’s wish list but publicly downplays it. When asked about the Florida rumors after Napier’s firing, Kiffin called it “a compliment” but admitted it was too much of a distraction to discuss midseason. That may be true, or it may be calculated. Kiffin has been in this spot before– he nearly left for Auburn in 2022 before his daughter Landry convinced him to stay. Landry remains a student at Ole Miss, his son Knox now plays quarterback at Oxford High, and even his ex-wife has moved there. Those personal ties make Oxford harder to leave this time.

Even Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter has publicly said he wants to lock Kiffin down with a massive extension similar to what Indiana did with Curt Cignetti.

Plus, money isn’t likely to be the deciding factor. Kiffin already earns $9 million annually and is expected to receive another extension soon. Florida would have to offer something Auburn couldn’t two years ago, a pitch that outweighs family stability, deep NIL resources, and a proven winning setup. Since 2022, Kiffin has landed a top-four transfer portal class each year, even stealing Florida’s own star edge rusher Princely Umanmielen, who recorded 10.5 sacks for the Rebels in 2024.

What could ultimately lure Kiffin is legacy. He admires Spurrier and said that he wanted to be him growing up. There’s a chance that connection could tug at him,  especially knowing that Florida, despite its recent struggles, still carries national title potential that Ole Miss has never fully touched. Florida’s three championships since 1996, the last in 2008 under Urban Meyer, still shine brighter than Ole Miss’s 1962 claim.

The whole situation is ironic when you remember that Florida already had a way out of this turmoil four years ago and ignored it. When Dan Mullen got fired in November 2021, he told athletic director Scott Stricklin point-blank, “I’d go hire Lane Kiffin right now.”

Stricklin reportedly did his due diligence on Lane Kiffin earlier this season, making calls to people around the Ole Miss coach. And sources say he was initially hesitant to pursue him, but has since changed his tune.

Regardless of that, Florida’s stuck in this weird middle ground. The administration’s preferred candidate isn’t leaving Notre Dame, and the boosters’ dream hire might not want to leave Oxford. 

The tale of two Florida coaches

The contrast between how Florida treated Dan Mullen and Billy Napier couldn’t be starker, and Mullen wasn’t shy about pointing it out. “Are they going to give the next guy a lot more than they gave him, as far as resources? Me, right?” Mullen told Wolken. “I mean, like, everything was, ‘No.’ And then everything I asked for, they said, ‘Here you go’ to the next person. So what’s the plan to make it better? Not that, then what? They doubled the salary pool [for Napier] to hire coaches and staff members. I was always told no. Everything was no.”

 The numbers tell the story. Mullen operated with a $6.1 million assistant coach salary pool while Napier got $7.5 million, plus another $5 million for off-field staff. That’s a fundamental shift in how Florida approached supporting its head coach.​ What makes this even more frustrating for Mullen is that he actually delivered results with less. His 34-15 overall record and three straight New Year’s Six bowl appearances stand in stark contrast to Napier’s 22-23 mark. Napier had the worst winning percentage by a Florida coach since 1949. 

Mullen went 10-3 and 11-2 in his first two seasons, while Napier went 6-7 and 5-7 in his first two years despite having significantly more resources. Even Scott Stricklin acknowledged the disparity when he announced Napier’s firing, stating that “UF has never been more committed to the success of this football program” than they are now. That had to sting for Mullen, who watched Florida finally commit to facilities, NIL, and staff support only after he was gone.​