They say the empty mind is the devil’s workshop. Well, the football realm is in the absolute depths of the offseason right now. Both the Saturday and Sunday sports are dormant. So, without much going on, discourse has shifted to divulging subjective hypotheticals. ‘What ifs’ and ‘Imagine that.’ It’s a cyclic occurrence this time of year. But airing projections about the 2026 NFL Draft when the ‘25 iteration is freshly minted sure does seem devilish. Alas, being subjected to hypothetical conversations ad nauseam isn’t new to Arch Manning. 

Less than a fortnight after the 2025 draft left us an abundance of chaotic storylines, the focus has pivoted to next year’s class. Which, as a premise itself, is flawed. Since you cannot even be sure of what players will make up the furniture of said class. Epitomizing this is Texas’s new QB1 and every football romantic’s old flame, Arch Manning. After biding his time behind Quinn Ewers on the depth chart for 2 seasons, Manning’s time in the sun is here. But as he prepares to properly acclimate to the collegiate game, people are already yearning for him to ascend to the pros. 

There is absolutely no foundational evidence to suggest Arch Manning is going to enter the NFL draft in ‘26. If anything, the signs point to him staying put in Austin. After all, he has been patiently waiting to don that burnt orange strip and rep the Longhorns. Yet, Manning is the crown jewel, the piece de resistance to damn-near every look-ahead 2026 mock draft. There seems to be a building belief in the masses that he will forego the remainder of his college eligibility for the NFL. However, NFL insider Albert Breer has come out to puncture the hype and fervor. Bring people and their flying expectations down to earth and nip this notion while its still in its infancy. Breer has released an article preaching caution and composure around Arch Manning within NFL circles. An article that included the opinions of two AFC college scouting directors.

“It’s time to stop the madness on Arch Manning. And I’d advise everyone to do what Manning’s own family has: Let the kid be what he is right now,” said Breer to preface his take. The article, via Sports Illustrated, delved into how insufficient his body of work is to make any assumptions and extrapolations about how great an NFL prospect he’ll be. Breer even pointed to Ewers, who was the No. 1 player in the country coming out of high school and just got drafted in round 7. There’s nuance in Arch Manning’s game that his small sample size of 2 CFB starts hasn’t revealed yet. “I get it. Everyone’s excited. You should be…But, for now, for NFL teams, that’s really all it is. There’s not anywhere near enough to go on to know whether he’ll be a top-five pick or a fifth-rounder down the line,” wrote Albert Breer.

Breer also used arguments made by the aforementioned scouting directors to corroborate and drive home his opinion. Although they’re veiled behind anonymity, their words set the tone for what the actual decision-makers, not the fan or draftnik, think. Which, as we learned during this draft cycle, can be very contrasting.

The public and media alike believed Shedeur Sanders was a shoo-in to get drafted in round 1. Every analyst graded him as the 3rd best quarterback in his class at minimum. There was plenty of rationale to back Shedeur’s pre-draft eminence, which made his almost inexplicable and pretty unprecedented slide all the way to round 5 even more alarming. The reasons why this happened have become conspicuous in the aftermath, and they aren’t necessarily transferable to Arch Manning. But it still serves as a cautionary tale for a QB coming from a royal football family. ‘Manning’ on the back of your jersey carries weight, but it can also pull you down. 

The scouting directors’ assessment of Arch Manning from an NFL lens is telling

“[People are] almost surprised with that last name that [Arch Manning] has that speed, and the ability to generate big plays with his legs, and he gets transformed into this elite prospect,” said scouting director #1 as per Albert Breer. Although they have a storied lineage of QBs, the Mannings haven’t really produced athletes of Arch’s ilk. His grandfather Archie Manning was close, but his uncles Eli Manning and Peyton Manning weren’t super mobile. Or legitimate threats to move the sticks rushing out of the backfield. “The reality is we haven’t really seen him run the offense with any consistency yet. And that’s not his fault, he just hasn’t played…You’d like to watch a quarterback in double-digit games to really evaluate them…you want to see him against an Alabama or a Georgia,” added the anonymous scouting director. The message is clear: Valid excitement, but not enough reps to get carried away.

“You just don’t know until they’re really playing,” said the other AFC college scouting director. “Right now, the body of work is too small. We’ve seen big guys with talent, the tools, the arm, that don’t know how to process, and don’t have the accuracy to all levels of the field consistently enough. What we have on [Arch Manning] isn’t nearly enough. You could guess, but that’s really all you’ll be doing—guessing.” Say Arch Manning has a stellar season and starts every game en route to Texas being successful (whatever success means for this blueblood). Maybe he even grabs himself some individual honors, a Heisman perhaps. Is that enough for Arch to forego 2 more years of eligibility and enter the draft? Probably. Because if that transpires, he’d be a top-5 pick conservatively. But that’s the catch. 

It’s likely a lot has to go right between now and the end of the season for Arch Manning to take that step. He’s got the capabilities, but airing on the side of caution does seem more reasonable. Albert Breer isn’t being pessimistic about his prospects- he’s simply asking the people to show self-restraint. There’s a fine line between being hyped and being lifted to a pedestal where everything you do feels meh.