Following a tumultuous 9-4 inaugural season—the worst record in 17 years for the program—there are very high expectations for Kalen DeBoer to turn things around. Even Nick Saban himself, retired and commentating for ESPN from the sidelines these days, has been cryptically cagey about laying out specific expectations. But he also admitted that with things more stable now, he expects DeBoer’s team to do “exceptionally well” in 2025. There is also hope for the group of wide receivers, strengthened by Miami transfer Isaiah Horton and the return of standouts such as Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams.

Now, here’s where the roster picture gets interesting. A mass exodus following Saban’s departure partly created instability last season—top names in safety Caleb Downs and receiver Isaiah Bond departed, leaving holes that DeBoer needed to scramble to fill. The quarterback room is representative of this transition. With Jalen Milroe headed to the NFL, the competition is then between Ty Simpson, who has only thrown 50 passes over three years, and highly recruited newcomers Austin Mack and Keelon Russell. DeBoer and new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb are seeking someone capable of bringing consistency and leadership rather than flash. Yet Bama’s roster situation under DeBoer had compelling observations from analyst Josh Pate.

On 23rd May, Josh Pate released the latest episode of his show, where he does an interesting exposé of Alabama under DeBoer. “I think once upon a time when you had your Ohio States or your Georgia or Alabama under Saban, you just accepted that it doesn’t matter how many question marks there are. They are so far above and beyond talent-wise the rest of the field that they’ll more than make up for it. I don’t believe that’s the state of these rosters anymore.”

For some time, programs such as Alabama under Saban, Ohio State, and Georgia were effectively playing a different sport than the rest. Their teams were simply loaded—five-stars across the board, NFL-type talent two or three deep at every skill position. Despite potential changes like a new quarterback, a coordinator switch, or players moving to the draft, it didn’t matter.

That’s no longer exactly true, according to Pate. The transfer portal has completely flipped the script. Players don’t have to take a seat and wait their turn behind a future NFL player—just jump to another school and play immediately. This means the days of Alabama or Georgia stockpiling all the blue-chip talent are, for the most part, gone. If a five-star is not starting, he’s likely leaving. And with NIL money involved, it’s still an easy sell for other programs to poach the best players.

“I think the tops of the trees, especially from a depth standpoint, has been shaved off to the point where, first off, Alabama’s got a top-five talent roster anyway. But even if they didn’t, like Penn State probably doesn’t have a top five talent roster, top 10 maybe, but when a bunch of that proven production returns and then you look elsewhere and you got a lot of question marks on a loaded roster talent-wise elsewhere, these days I will give the lean to the more experienced and proven team,” says Pate. It’s more feasible to tip your favor toward teams with more established production and track records, even if their straight-up talent isn’t as great.

Not a lot of squads are better at the quality of starters who are returning than Penn State. As we mentioned, Alabama will have a new QB1. In Penn State’s case, Drew Allar is returning. But he is not the only one. The list includes RBs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, OLs Nick Dawkins and JB Nelson, LB Dominic DeLuca, DEs Dani Dennis-Sutton and Smith Vilbert, DT Zane Durant, LS Tyler Duzansky and Safety Zakee Wheatley. That’s guaranteed experience in almost every position on the field. So, while Kalen DeBoer may have had a top-5 class, that doesn’t mean much when they are freshmen.

Ty Simpson gets ‘Sabanified’

Now that Nick Saban is observing Ty Simpson from the sidelines rather than directing the operation in Tuscaloosa. Saban has stated he’s a strong supporter of Simpson becoming the Alabama starting quarterback this season. Saban refers to Ty Simpson as ‘a fine young man’ and states he’s the ultimate example of what genuine development is like at a power program like Alabama. Simpson was a high-profile recruit, a five-star from Tennessee, but rather than jump ship when he didn’t win the starting job right away, he waited. He learned, he grew, and he waited for his opportunity for three years—initially as a third-string quarterback behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe and then as Milroe’s backup. Saban’s faith in Simpson isn’t about loyalty, however.

He truly feels that Simpson’s experience on the bench has prepared him to make it happen now that they are finally giving him the opportunity. Saban described, “He’s a fine young man. I think his example is a true example of development. He matured and developed for three years, and now he’s going to get the opportunity, and I think his experiences are going to help him be successful. We’re rooting for him, that’s for sure, and I have every confidence that he’ll do a great job.” Saban is giving you about as much of an endorsement as you’re going to get.

What’s great is that Saban’s endorsement arrives at a time when Alabama desperately needs consistent quarterback leadership. The Tide just had a rare off-year, and there’s a great deal of pressure on Kalen DeBoer to turn the situation around. Simpson doesn’t have to be a superstar—he simply needs to be solid, make good reads, and keep the offense flowing. With a heavily loaded receiver corps and plenty of skill surrounding him, Saban’s banking on Simpson’s experience and maturity to come through.