Jon Sumrall sure knows how to deliver raw takes. Tulane had just slid into the CFP rankings at No. 24 after South Florida stumbled. And just when fans were buzzing about being the lone Group of 5 program in the Top 25, the playoff projections dropped their own bomb. No. 12 Tulane vs. No. 5 Texas Tech in what would be a wild first-round showdown in Lubbock. But the Green Wave HC’s reaction wasn’t the flex anyone expected.

On November 18, reporter Justin Margolius posted a video of Jon Sumrall talking about the CFP bracket projection. And instead of pounding his chest, he made a candid admission. “There’s some days I feel like we’re one of the bottom 25 teams in the country watching us play,” he said. “So if we want to start feeling comfortable or casual about somebody wanting to vote us in the top 25 teams, there must be a lot of bad football going on if we’re one of the top 25 teams.” When your coach sounds like this, you know he’s trying to hammer one message home. Stay hungry.

“We’re an average team,” Jon Sumrall added. “We get every six or seven days, depending on the schedule of the week, to promote ourselves or embarrass ourselves. We’ve done that before. So, we better get ready to play.” The candor isn’t self-sabotage; it’s more of a calculated grounding. Tulane sits at 8-2 overall and 5-1 in AAC play, holding the inside lane for the Group of 5’s lone path into the 12-team CFP. And that No. 24 ranking gives them the wheel. But things get more interesting when you look at how they got there.

Tulane jumped Navy (8-2), North Texas (9-1), and James Madison (9-1) for the top G5 spot, something the committee chair Hunter Yurachek addressed head-on. “The American is a really good conference this year, a really top-heavy conference,” he said. “You look at Tulane’s schedule and the fact that they have went outside of their conference and played three P4 schools… winning two of those three games.”

But to stay in control, Tulane must win out, starting with a trip to Philadelphia to face a Temple team Jon Sumrall calls the AAC’s most improved. Then comes a home finale against UNC Charlotte. Still, there’s a bigger wrinkle shaping the final two weeks.

Why Tulane’s ranking actually matters more than Jon Sumrall lets on

The AAC title race is shaping up to be the messiest four-way traffic jam of the season, with Tulane, Navy, North Texas, and ECU all sitting on one conference loss. And thanks to a scheduling twist that feels almost deliberate, none of them face each other in the final stretch. That means the league can’t sort this out on the field; it’ll be decided by the CFP committee. Under league rules, the highest-ranked AAC team in the final regular-season CFP rankings gets the ticket to the title game. Right now, that’s Tulane. And unless something bizarre happens, it’ll stay Tulane.

Tulane’s No. 24 ranking doesn’t just put them ahead of their G5 rivals; it hands them hosting rights for the AAC Championship if they win out. That means Yulman Stadium could be center stage for a December showdown. But the real prize sits beyond that. The final, coveted No. 12 spot in the expanded CFP. Win the next two games, win the conference, and they’re in. No politics, no chaos required.

Yet through all of this, Jon Sumrall refuses to let his team inhale the hype. His “average team” comments are strategic insulation. He is keeping the Green Wave edgy, uncomfortable, and chasing something bigger than a ranking. And that’s the irony. While the outside world keeps telling Tulane they’re playoff-worthy, he is convincing them they haven’t earned anything yet. Now the question is whether the Green Wave can handle the weight.