The Wisconsin Badgers may have been playing some uninspired and disappointing football for the past three years under their head coach, Luke Fickell. But, even then, this has to be the darkest part ever. The latest 37-0 loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes at home– their first home shutout since 1980– tops everything, and there’s still more to look at. Naturally, fans are chanting for him to be fired, and betting gurus are listening. 

Adam Breneman took to his X account to share a list of the odds for the next coach fired in CFB, according to BetOnline. Right at the top of it: “Luke Fickell (Wisconsin) +100”

When Wisconsin hired Luke Fickell in November 2022, the move was sold as a grand revival. This coach had taken Cincinnati to the playoffs even before the 12-team era and surely could modernize the Badgers without dismantling what worked. But that balance never came. 

Over the past three years, Wisconsin has consistently failed in high-stakes games and against both top-tier and comparable Big Ten opponents. Fickell spent the offseason emphasizing redemption for last year’s 42-10 loss to Iowa, yet his team’s performance reflected a complete inability to translate motivation into execution. The offense has collapsed under his watch, ranking 115th in the FBS at 15.5 points per game, with multiple first-quarter turnovers crippling drives. The defense, once a reliable strength, has been repeatedly overrun (allowing 210 rushing yards and four touchdowns to Iowa). The quarterback carousel keeps spinning with injuries, benchings, no clear leader, and the transfer additions haven’t made the difference they were supposed to.

Everything combined, their 2025 campaign slipped to 2–5 overall (0–4 in Big Ten play). Fickell’s own record in Madison fell to 15–18, exposing a trend that’s been building for a long while now. Dating back to last November, the Badgers are just 2–10, with 10 straight losses to Power Four opponents– nine of them by double digits. Furthermore, across their last two home games, Wisconsin hasn’t managed a single point, getting outscored 71–0 by Iowa and Ohio State. 

It makes one want to shake the head coach for answers. But all he can say is, “I’m dumbfounded in a lot of ways” or, “There is no such thing as an easy fix, this is not gonna be (one).” Yet, while everyone calls for a change, athletic director Chris McIntosh has assured players that their head coach won’t be fired this season. “Nothing’s going to happen to him,” McIntosh said. This makes one think that the administration still has faith in Fickell’s capabilities. But it’s hard to ignore that money plays a major role in why Fickell may survive this season despite the on-field collapse. 

arting ways with him now would cost Wisconsin more than $25 million, a staggering sum that ranks as the second-largest buyout in college football history. Under the terms of his contract, Fickell would receive $334,736 each month until March 31, 2032, if fired at the end of 2025. His current salary for this season sits at $7.7 million, with a $100,000 raise built in annually, bringing his final year’s pay to $8.3 million. For a program already facing the costs of staff salaries, facility upgrades, and recruiting, that kind of payout gives pause. Here’s how Fickell’s buyout would break down over time:

• Buyout is $25.4 million after the 2025 season
• Buyout drops to $19.2 million after the 2026 season
• Buyout drops to $12.8 million after the 2027 season
• Buyout drops to $6.4 million after the 2028 season
• Buyout drops to $6.4 million after the 2029 season
• Buyout drops to $6.4 million after the 2030 season
• Buyout drops to $0 after the 2031 season

Wisconsin designed the contract to protect both sides. Currently, the Badgers would owe 80% of Fickell’s remaining initial contract, which originally ended in 2029. With the extension through 2032, a clause was added limiting liquidated damages to $6.48 million after the final regular-season game in 2029. In other words, while the administration may appear to be backing Fickell out of faith, the financial implications of an early firing are just as likely to dictate the status quo.

While Luke Fickell’s seat is practically melting in Madison, Brian Kelly, although not on the list, but with even more pressure and a much bigger paycheck, is somehow skating by.

Brian Kelly stays out of the wrong spotlight 

Down in Baton Rouge, Brian Kelly’s walking on the same tightrope. But somehow, he’s still getting a longer leash. The man who once bulldozed Notre Dame’s politics now found himself apologizing to LSU fans this week.

“We want to do better for our fan base, we get that. And some are saying I’m not getting it done now, I get that. I recognize everybody’s angst,” he said, basically admitting the Tigers’ season’s been a letdown. “I hope our fan base understands that we’re disappointed. We are committed to getting better every single day.”

LSU has dropped two games already, the playoff window’s closing, and yet no one’s pulling the plug. The reason is also that LSU would have to pay $54M for Brian Kelly’s buyout if he’s fired. But if LSU stumbles against Texas A&M this week and then loses to Alabama and Oklahoma later, he’s cooked.

As Paul Finebaum said of the upcoming game, “Now, this game could knock him out of the playoffs. And remember, eight weeks ago, we were talking about CFP or bust for Brian Kelly.”

But for now, while Luke Fickell’s counting down the hours to his pink slip, the Tigers’ HC still has time to convince LSU that the man apologizing at the podium can still lead them back to glory. Because in this version of college football, contrition buys you weeks. But losing to Iowa 37-0 buys you unemployment.