Urban Meyer has never been shy about making bold Heisman predictions. The former Ohio State head coach has spent the better part of this season analyzing every performance that could tilt the award one way or another. But something interesting happened recently on the Triple Option podcast. Meyer, who’s built a career on identifying elite talent and maximizing potential, made a statement that directly contradicts what he was saying just weeks ago. 

Not long ago, Meyer was all-in on Julian Sayin as his Heisman frontrunner, and he had the receipts to back it up. “Let’s focus on the Big Ten Conference,” Meyer said, before laying out Sayin’s ridiculous stat line: completing 80 percent of his passes, averaging 273 yards per game, 23 touchdowns against just three interceptions. Meyer’s logic was that quarterbacks usually win the Heisman, and Sayin’s numbers were video game territory. “If he continues, I would have to say he’ll win the Heisman,” Meyer declared. 

Fast forward to this week, and Urban Meyer dropped a bombshell that left everyone wondering why he had changed his mind. He has picked a new Heisman candidate, and it’s not Fernando Mendoza (although he is 2nd on the list). “So, mine, in order, are the best football player in the country, and I would probably challenge anybody to the best player in America is Jeremiah Smith,” Meyer said on the Triple Option podcast. 

He didn’t stop there, adding that Smith would be the number one overall pick in the NFL Draft “probably after his freshman year, certainly after his sophomore year, and it will be next year.” Meyer was going all-in on the Ohio State wide receiver as not just a Heisman candidate but as the best player in college football, period. 

“Well, the best player in the country, in maybe the last decade, is Jeremiah Smith. He’s the best player,” Meyer told Rob Stone back in February. And now he’s doubling down on that assessment in the thick of the Heisman race. The shift from Sayin to Smith shows how Meyer has changed his evaluation to impact from traditional statistics. It was Gerry DiNardo, Meyer’s long-time friend, who could have prompted this change in him.

But not everyone’s convinced that Smith has what it takes to actually win the trophy. Mark Ingram, the 2009 Heisman winner himself, has pointed out that the numbers Smith has just aren’t there for a wide receiver to realistically win in today’s game. The last receiver to take home the hardware was DeVonta Smith in 2020. And he put up an absolutely absurd production with 1,856 receiving yards on 117 catches with 23 touchdowns in just 13 games. Jeremiah Smith, as dominant as he’s been, isn’t going to come anywhere close to those gaudy totals. That’s the reality check that could doom his candidacy, no matter how many jaws he drops with highlight-reel catches.

So where does that leave us in this wild Heisman race? Urban Meyer believes Smith is the best player in America and has now publicly staked his reputation on that claim. But he also understands the realities of how voting works. The December 6th Big Ten Championship Game is still going to matter enormously. And if Sayin or Mendoza goes off on that stage while Smith has a quiet day, the narrative could shift right back.

How DiNardo’s film study could have changed Meyer’s mind

As said earlier, Urban Meyer ultimately declared Jeremiah Smith as “the best player in America,” but getting there required some convincing from his broadcast partner. Gerry DiNardo wasn’t about to let Meyer crown Julian Sayin without a fight, and his pushback was as blunt as it gets. 

“You and I have been doing this a long time, this analysis thing. And I don’t know that I’ve ever disagreed with you more than right now,” DiNardo fired back when Meyer had laid out his case for Sayin. Then DiNardo went straight for the jugular with his argument for Smith: “Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football. He’s made catches that nobody else can make. Oftentimes, he changes the momentum in favor of Ohio State.”

DiNardo leaned on actual game film and showed Meyer something that transcended the traditional stat sheet. DiNardo pointed to sequences where Smith was lined up against four defenders, and the argument wasn’t about whether he was covered or open. It was about how his mere presence on the field forced defenses to cover him, while half the offense was free.​

“Jeremiah is impacting the game without the ball being thrown to him,” DiNardo explained. And that’s the gravitational pull that could win some Heisman votes. Smith’s stats might not jump off the page. But DiNardo’s point was that the numbers don’t capture the full picture. Meyer clearly absorbed that argument.