Jeremiah Smith walked into this season as one of the favorites for the Heisman Trophy, and for good reason. He put up dominant production numbers last season that had everyone ready to pencil him in as a potential winner. He’s got the profile of a future first-round NFL pick and he makes catches that look like they defy physics.

But Urban Meyer, the guy who’s literally made a career out of maximizing quarterback potential, threw a wrench into the whole conversation when he started breaking down what he’s been seeing on film. Meyer watched Julian Sayin against Penn State and came away absolutely convinced that the redshirt freshman is the real deal in the Heisman race.

“Let’s focus on the Big Ten Conference,” Urban Meyer said matter-of-factly, and then proceeded to lay out Sayin’s season. He said, “He’s completing 80 percent of his balls, 273 yards per game, 23 touchdowns, three picks. And he currently leads the country in passing efficiency, which is the most important stat for a quarterback,” Meyer’s tone made it clear that he was making a case.​

What really caught everyone’s attention was Urban Meyer’s next statement: “If he continues, I would have to say he’ll win the Heisman.” Meyer wasn’t dismissing the rest of the competition either. He acknowledged Fernando Mendoza has been putting up video game numbers at Indiana, leading the Hoosiers to an undefeated season. But Meyer also pointed out that the real shake-up happens on December 6th in Indianapolis. “It will come down to the Big Ten Championship Game because that will be the last game the voters will see before voting,” Meyer explained. That’s the stage. That’s where Heisman races are decided when you’re down to the final week.​

But Gerry DiNardo wasn’t having any of Urban Meyer’s analysis. “You and I have been doing this a long time, this analysis thing. And I don’t know that I’ve ever disagreed with you more than right now,” DiNardo fired back. Then he went straight for Smith’s resume: “Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football. He’s made catches that nobody else can make. Oftentimes, he changes the momentum in favor of Ohio State.” 

DiNardo pulled up game film and showed Jeremiah Smith lined up against four defenders, and the point wasn’t that he was covered. It was that Smith’s sheer presence on the field warps defensive schemes. “Jeremiah is impacting the game without the ball being thrown to him,” DiNardo said. And that’s the transcendent impact that historically wins Heisman votes.​

The reality is that both guys have a point, and that’s what makes this race so fascinating. Sayin’s got the numbers, the efficiency, and the quarterback statistics that usually win the award. 80 percent completion rate doesn’t lie. Jeremiah Smith’s got the gravity, the elite production, and the generational receiving talent that bends games in ways traditional stats don’t capture. Meyer’s not wrong about Sayin’s trajectory, and DiNardo’s not wrong about Smith’s impact. But Meyer’s comment about December 6th in Indianapolis might be the most important takeaway here. 

Whoever gets the biggest stage in the final week. Whoever throws or catches the most crucial ball in a championship game. That’s probably who’s going home with the trophy. This race isn’t over, and frankly, it might not even be decided until Ohio State takes the field one last time.​

Meyer’s case for Mendoza and a Heisman timeline problem

Urban Meyer didn’t throw Sayin’s name out there without acknowledging the elephant in the room. Fernando Mendoza is having an absolutely ridiculous season at Indiana, and Urban Meyer knows it. “Fernando Mendoza is having a brilliant year, one of the greatest years of any IU quarterback in history,” Meyer said, and then he rattled off the stats that have Mendoza firmly in the conversation: 72 percent completion rate, averaging 236 yards per game, and sitting second in the country in pass efficiency. 

The real money line came when Meyer laid out the collision course: “I think it’s a Heisman collision course in Indianapolis when Ohio State is going to play Indiana as the way it looks. I think the winner of that game in which the quarterback plays best will be the frontrunner”. That’s December 6th in the Big Ten Championship Game, and Meyer believes whoever wins that matchup essentially locks up the trophy.​

But Meyer also exposed a major problem with the Heisman voting structure, and it’s something that’s been bugging college football people. 

“There’s a bunch of football, maybe the most important football after that. The game’s changed, move that back, give these quarterbacks Heisman moments in the most important time of the year, and that’s the playoffs.” Meyer is arguing that the best performances happen in the College Football Playoff. But voters will never see them because the ballots are already submitted. It’s a valid critique. Imagine if Sayin or Mendoza goes nuclear in the playoff semifinal and throws for 400 yards and five touchdowns, but the Heisman’s already been decided. That’s the broken system Meyer’s calling out, and it’s hard to argue with his logic.​