When Lincoln Riley touched down in L.A. back in late 2021, folks thought he was about to drop two natties over a decade period time. USC fans were already polishing trophy space in Heritage Hall. The man came from Oklahoma with a 55–10 record, a Heisman QB in his back pocket, and a 10-year, $110 million contract fatter than an SEC defensive line. But after a disaster-class 2024 season, whispers are getting loud—he might not be that guy. So why isn’t he gone yet? Tell you what’s keeping him alive…

USC fumbled its way to a 7-6 season last season. Defense looked allergic to tackling. The Coliseum crowd? Sounded more like a funeral than a football fiesta by midseason. And according to The Next Round podcast host Jim Dunaway, Riley’s still on payroll not because USC believes in his magic—”It was on the Stuart Mandel, Bruce Feldman podcast over the weekend for The Athletic,” Dunaway said, before dropping the mic. “One athletic director, blue-blood AD, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said, ‘USC would gladly fire Lincoln Riley if they could get out of his contract.’” It’s coming straight from a Blue Blood director. And there’s just one teensy little problem: an $88 million buyout clause handcuffing the Trojans tighter than a seatbelt on a rollercoaster. Yeah, USC’s coach isn’t bulletproof. He’s just really, really expensive to delete.

Look, USC didn’t bring in Riley to go bowling in Vegas. They wanted rings. Plural. At First? Everything looked promising for Lincoln Riley. Caleb Williams won the Heisman. USC went 11-3. Folks were already carving Riley’s name into some imaginary natty trophy. Now they’re neck-deep in what might be one of the most expensive ‘maybe-we-messed-up’ deals in college football. That $88M buyout? It’s the iron gate keeping Riley in LA—whether the fanbase likes it or not.

Unless Riley decides to bounce himself—which, let’s be real, why would he?—USC’s riding this rollercoaster till the wheels fall off or the boosters pony up a historic check. FanDuel Sportsbook is not buying a Riley’s turnaround either. The Trojans are sitting at -118 to win over 7.5 games in 2025 and -104 for the under. In the Big Ten title race, they’re barely on the map with +3500 odds. That’s not contender energy—that’s limping into relevancy.

There’s a way. USC’s recent run-in with the NCAA might’ve cracked open a backdoor. The program just got hit with probation and a $50K fine for letting non-coaching staff do a little too much coaching—yeah, that’s a no-go in NCAA land. Now, Lincoln Riley wasn’t directly in the hot seat for it—he actually got some credit for trying to play by the book—but still, that kind of violation could give USC an excuse to pull the “for cause” card. If they did? No need to cough up that monster buyout. But it’s very highly unlikely. 

Lincoln Riley’s big 2025? 

So here we are. Year four. Riley’s reputation is hanging on by a thread, and Trojan Nation is watching every snap like it’s a lie detector test. What’s wild is—USC wasn’t terrible in 2024. They had the lead in the fourth quarter in all but one game. That’s either a sign of a team on the cusp or a coach struggling to finish games. Depends on who you ask. But USC didn’t stand pat. They hired Rob Ryan as linebackers coach.

They also got some dawgs coming in. Defensive lineman Jahkeem Stewart is low-key expected to see snaps as a true freshman. Portal additions like CB Chasen Johnson, WR Prince Strachan, and DL Keeshawn Silver are all plug-and-play ready. Riley’s offense still got heat too—WR Makai Lemon went for 764 yards and balled out with 99 in the Las Vegas Bowl. Ja’Kobi Lane? 525 yards and 12 tuds, with 127 yards and 3 scores in that same game. That’s a scary duo right there.

Let’s not forget about LB Eric Gentry. Man was battling injuries last year, but when healthy? He’s the vocal leader every defense needs. And Jayden Maiava showed crazy progress in a spring game. Safe to say, Maiava is QB1 over freshman Longstreet. If Riley doesn’t show real results in 2025—like Big Ten contention, like playoff buzz—then USC’s going to be back in that awkward situation: desperately wanting to fire him but still held hostage by that contract.

There’s buzz again in the building, no doubt. But buzz doesn’t mean squat if you go below 8-4 and get cooked by Michigan. The goal for Riley? Shut the haters up, win 9+ games, or crash the CFP party. Anything less, and the whispers about that buyout will turn into full-on chants. “I think it’s a make-or-break year for Lincoln Riley,” Paul Finebaum said on McElroy and Cubelic. “The expectations for him are through the roof, and you can’t get away with a couple of bad years at ‘SC, even if you end on a high note.”

True. That Las Vegas Bowl win might’ve iced the heat for a minute. But Riley’s still on thin ice. USC kicks off 2025 on August 30 against Missouri State. That should be light work. But after that? No more excuses.