A preview of a movie titled Collapse starring a defensive line suddenly devoid of its only consistent, game-wrecking force. Seventeen seconds. That’s all it took for Brian Baldinger to dissect the nightmare unfolding in Cincinnati’s trenches. “@Commanders just bring back the HOGS…. this is Hogish,” the NFL analyst declared on X, his illustrator tracing yellow arrows across a burgundy wave crashing through orange and black. “Counter Trey to the house.”

On the screen, Commanders tight end John Bates (#87) erased two Bengals defenders with one block, right tackle Andrew Wylie (#71) planted his man into the turf, and rookie runner Jacory Croskey-Merritt (#32) burst untouched for a 27-yard touchdown. It was artistry. It was domination. And for the Bengals? It was a horrifying glimpse into a future they desperately hope to avoid – life without Trey Hendrickson.

This wasn’t just preseason rust. This was a schematic evisceration, a direct result of the gaping hole left by the man who led the NFL in sacks the past two seasons (17.5 each year). That Commanders’ drive? Four plays. Seventy-four yards. All on the ground. Jayden Daniels capped it with a 14-yard TD scamper that looked far too easy.

It underscored a brutal reality Cincinnati is trying to ignore: Without Hendrickson, this defense doesn’t just dip; it plummets. The numbers scream it: When he’s off the field, the Bengals rank dead last in pressure rate (a pathetic ~25%), completion rate allowed (~69%), and passer rating allowed (~106). With him? They jump to a respectable top-12 unit (~35% pressure, ~64% completion allowed). The difference isn’t incremental; it’s catastrophic. As one blunt Bengals fan noted on Reddit: “He won the sack title by 3.5 sacks. Without him this defense goes from merely bad to historically awful.”

But the question here is: what’s holding back Hendrickson? The source of this dread is a contract stalemate that’s turned training camp chilly despite the summer heat.

Contract cold war: Hendrickson’s holdout turns Cincinnati uneasy

Hendrickson, pursuing a lucrative long-term contract as he enters the final year of the one-year, $21 million extension he signed in 2023, isn’t just sitting out practices. Indeed, he’s sounding alarms. He told ESPN’s Laura Rutledge the core issue is simple, yet massive: “The two sides have agreed on the years and total dollar amount… but not guaranteed money.” He’s watched peers like Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, and Maxx Crosby cash in massive, secure deals. In July, Watt signed a historic three-year, $123 million extension worth $41 million annually — the highest average salary ever for a non-quarterback. Garrett followed in March with a four-year, $160 million contract.

Undoubtedly, his own resume – leading the league with 35 sacks over the past two seasons, four straight Pro Bowls, First-Team All-Pro in 2024 – demands similar security.

Rumors swirled of a potential trade, with the Bengals reportedly seeking a 2026 first-round pick plus a player. While team owner Mike Brown insists, “We want him here… We will get it done,” the impasse persists. Hendrickson traveled to Washington but didn’t play, a $15.8 million spectator to the defensive unraveling.

The anxiety isn’t confined to the front office. Franchise QB Joe Burrow, watching his defense get gashed on the ground in that Commanders preview, knows exactly what’s at stake. He’s been vocal: “It’s been a long negotiation. Trey Hendrickson is a fine player. He’s a good guy. We want him here.” His concern is palpable.

This is a Bengals team built for a Super Bowl window now, having invested over $550 million in locking down Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. Missing the playoffs two years straight with that firepower is unacceptable. Letting the engine of their defense – the guy teammates like Joseph Ossai describe with awe: “When Trey lines up… you know you got war” – walk away or play disgruntled? That could slam the window shut.

That Commanders’ drive, immortalized in Baldinger’s 17-second ‘#BaldysBreakdown,’ wasn’t just a preseason touchdown. It was a disturbing trailer.

The Hogs feasted because the alpha predator was missing. As Hendrickson’s standoff continues, the question hanging over Cincinnati isn’t just about guaranteed dollars or trade returns. It’s far more existential: Can the Bengals’ Super Bowl aspirations survive without the man who makes their entire defensive ecosystem function? Monday night offered a terrifying answer. They’d better hope it’s not the final cut.