The chessboard is set. In Kansas City, George Karlaftis’ $93 million extension isn’t just a contract—it’s a cultural manifesto. A declaration that championship defenses aren’t built on spreadsheets but on dudes who make season-saving tackles on bubble screens when the world expects a sack. For Payton’s Broncos, Nik Bonitto embodies that same ethos.

His 2024 tape wasn’t just 13.5 sacks—it was a 71-yard pick-six against Cleveland where he diagnosed a tight end seam route like a veteran free safety, and a 50-yard fumble return TD vs. Indianapolis where he snatched a botched lateral mid-air. These aren’t analytics anomalies. They’re heartbeat moments.

Zach Allen’s value can’t be reduced to his 8.5 sacks or 15 tackles for loss. It’s in the chaos he cultivates. When Allen stunts inside, guards panic. Centers lunge. That’s when Bonitto—suddenly one-on-one with a tackle already backpedaling—unleashes that blurring cross-chop that left Laremy Tunsil grasping at ghosts in Week 14.

As Mark Schlereth insists: “I think the analytics people go, ‘Oh, 13 and a half sacks, he becomes one of the top pass rushers in football.’ Maybe he is, but maybe it’s because maybe a lot of that has to do with who he plays next to.” Consider this: 32% of Bonitto’s sacks came when Allen drew double teams (per Next Gen Stats). Their combined 22 sacks in 2024 were the NFL’s 3rd-most by a DT/EDGE duo. Payton knows this symbiosis is rare.

Letting it dissolve over $2-3M per year? Football treason. But as Schlereth warns, raw numbers don’t tell the full story: “That to me is fugazy. Like, it doesn’t necessarily make sense. It’s not necessarily what you know what drives those numbers. I think you’ve got to use the eyeball test when you’re basically evaluating somebody’s roster.”

Karlaftis didn’t earn $62M guaranteed because of three-sack playoff games alone. He earned it by turning a 3rd-and-9 bubble screen into a 4th-and-5 tombstone for Buffalo’s season. Schlereth’s retelling hits like a screenplay: “Caroftus leaves his pass rush, spins 180, freaking hightails it… tackles him short. An unbelievable awareness slash effort play.”

“Yeah. Talk about a guy like Nick Bonitto looking to get paid with the Broncos. How about the deal that George Karlaftis [sic] has got from Kansas City? Four years, 93 million, 62 million of it guaranteed for a guy 24 years old, three years in the league, has 24 career sacks, 18 and a half the last two. That’s probably a deal that Nick Bonitto would love to get done for himself with the Broncos,” insinuated Evans. 

That’s the “glue guy” DNA Payton craves—and Bonitto has it. His two defensive touchdowns in three weeks last December weren’t luck. They were obsessed with film study, meeting freakish athleticism. That’s the intangibles premium—the kind of play that doesn’t show up in a stat sheet but wins championships. Bonitto has shown flashes of that same clutch DNA, and if Denver waits too long, another team will pay for it.

Now, the math gets brutal:

Denver’s $40M cap space

could stretch to $95M/4yrs today. Wait until February? With 12+ sacks? Try $105M.

The AFC west’s cold war: Payton’s endgame

Denver can afford to extend him now. But if they wait?

• Best-case scenario: Bonitto repeats his 13.5-sack season, and his price jumps to $25M+ per year

• Worst-case scenario: He hits free agency, and a desperate team (Chicago? Washington?) backs up the Brinks truck

As Schlereth put it: “If that becomes, for a guy like Nick Bonitto—who everybody here in Denver is talking about like, ‘Hey, is he going to be the next guy in line to get paid?’ and blah blah—he’s going into the last year of his contract, of his rookie deal, right? Like you look at Bonitto right now, if that’s the floor for a new deal and they can get that done, this is one of those win-win situations for an organization.”

Kansas City’s blueprint is no secret: Draft athletic, high-motor edges (Karlaftis, Felix Anudike-Uzomah), pair them with HOF interior disruption (Chris Jones), pay them before the market explodes. The Chiefs locked Karlaftis at $23.25M/year. The Jaguars just paid Josh Allen $150M. The Bills gave Greg Rousseau $23M/year. This isn’t inflation—it’s a detonation.

Payton’s counter? Mirror the model. With Allen already signed through 2026, Bonitto is the accelerant to Denver’s defensive renaissance. As one NFC executive texted: “Letting Bonitto test free agency is like letting a grenade roll around your locker room. Someone’s paying him $25M—why shouldn’t it be you?”

Bonitto’s camp knows this. His “talks are happening right now” isn’t a throwaway line—it’s a countdown. And Payton, who rebuilt the Saints dynasty by locking Cameron Jordan and Marshon Lattimore early, hears the clock ticking. In the AFC West, you either pay your predators or become prey. The Chiefs just upped the ante. Denver’s move?