Patrick Mahomes has led Kansas City with miracle comebacks and consecutive championships through a combination of arm talent. A  win-or-lose attitude, and the occasional flair for improvisationally re-writing history. Even the greatest magic tricksters, however, can run out of tricks. Going into 2025, Mahomes’ finest quarterback play, described as nearly 4,000 yards passing in the previous season with a more streamlined offense, is not arriving as a safety net, but as an expectation. The glare of fame on his shoulders has never been brighter, and the margin for error? Vanishingly small.

Then Colin Cowherd’s bleak forecast on The Herd show: “I think Kansas City, the dynasty part is over. They might win a Super Bowl, but I think their division’s too good to be a dynasty.. Last year, five of their wins in-division— all of them one-possession games. Denver’s gonna be a lot better.” Basically, what Cowherd is stating is that the Chiefs’ formerly comfortable ascendancy in the AFC West is now hostage to over-competitive adversaries, leaving Mahomes with no room for error. Cowherd wasn’t subtracting from greatness in Kansas City, he was suggesting greatness now comes with strings, not inevitability. His message: the AFC West runway isn’t padded anymore.

Cowherd presented his case on a formula employed during sports dynasties. He made parallels to Mahomes’ Chiefs and Nick Saban’s Alabama once Georgia showed up, to Urban Meyer’s Florida after Saban arrived, to LeBron James’ streak ending when tougher playoff series came along, and to Tom Brady’s dynasty being strengthened by the pathetic AFC East. In Cowherd‘s eyes, the Chiefs’ divisional dominance has evaporated with Mahomes playing a gauntlet where every single AFC West game is a knife fight. Close wins, he argued, are not proof of resilience; they’re a beacon that the gap is closing. “When your division is no longer a runway,” Cowherd said, “your dynasty isn’t the same.”

That argument addresses Kansas City’s reality. The roster attrition is evident, veteran stars like Travis Kelce, a defense that has lost depth on its front seven and back end, and an offensive line that has seen turnover. The Chiefs are still loaded at the game’s most important position. But Mahomes’ supporting cast lacks the same insulation to cushion injuries or slumps. This is not 2019, where a slow start could be written off before the push in January. Now, one misstep can flip playoff standing, getting Mahomes into opposing buildings in January instead of Arrowhead in the snow.

A pressure-cooker supporting cast

Patrick Mahomes has competed in high-stakes moments in the past, but rarely with the deck as heavily weighted in his favor. Earlier in his  seasons, his performance was augmented by a full, opulent skill set. Travis Kelce destroying the seams, and experienced depth on both sides. Now, the wide receiver turnover has left Kansas City with largely untested names and backup roles. Kelce, the wizard at 35, is confronting the most physically demanding stretch of his career. The problem isn’t that his health is just an issue. It’s the frequency with which defenses can target him without fear of the same level of perimeter damage.

Younger skill players, including some who are little more than two years out of college, are taking over showcase roles previously occupied by  established superstars. Rashee Rice has shown flashes, but flash alone will not suffice when the margin for error is so minuscule. The running game provides no guaranteed bell-cow back to stash away wins. All of these holes places even more emphasis on Mahomes’ shoulders, so every throw, every read, and every scramble carries exponentially more weight. For MVP winner, there is no such thing as a wasted possession in 2025.

This is where Andy Reid and the front office are tested in their own margin for error. Reid’s scheme adaptability has been a Chiefs safety blanket for a decade. But personnel constraints can only be schemed around for so long. Whether it’s a mid-year trade for a consistent receiver, more emphasis on run balance, or relying more on defensive opportunism, Kansas City’s roadmap to another Lombardi will necessitate calculated adaptation. If they do, 2025 will be the year one recalls the year the Chiefs re-invented their dynasty. Otherwise, Cowherd’s “epilogue” prediction can be interpreted to mean what has transpired.