Every few years, it feels like the Washington Commanders are on the verge of finally rewriting their story, only for the script to fall apart by the second act. Last season brought a rare surge of hope with Jayden Daniels, the kind that tempts fans to believe the worst days are behind them. But in Washington, history doesn’t stay quiet for long. The past hangs over everything—measured not just in years without a Super Bowl, but also in the weight it puts on the next guy expected to break the cycle.

Jayden Daniels is already feeling the weight of Washington’s 34-year Super Bowl drought—a curse that seemed ready to almost break after last year’s NFC Championship appearance. But according to NFL journalist Albert Breer, the momentum may not carry over. Breer cautions that expecting another 12-win season is aggressive, especially when you consider the fine margins that defined 2024. Washington went 6–1 in one-score games and faced backup quarterbacks in four of their wins. In the game with the NFC East, where the Eagles collapsed to 7–10, it also eased their path, and no other team besides Washington finished above .500.

Now the pressure lands directly on Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Commanders expect him to lead a franchise that hasn’t reached the Super Bowl since 1991 or posted consecutive winning seasons since 2015–16. Since 2018, the Commanders have cycled through 12 starting quarterbacks, with none lasting more than 16 starts. Daniels flashed promise as a rookie, throwing for 2,913 yards and 18 touchdowns in 13 starts, while rushing for another 641 yards and 6 scores. But the early optimism has hit turbulence. During mandatory minicamp in June, Daniels reportedly threw five interceptions over two practices, raising concerns about decision-making under pressure and adding fuel to the looming fear of a sophomore slump.

What makes the sophomore slump feel more real in Daniels’ case is the system around him. Washington lost OC Eric Bieniemy this offseason and replaced him with Kliff Kingsbury, whose tenure in Arizona produced a 28–37–1 record and ended with Kyler Murray’s regression and a torn ACL. Kingsbury’s air-raid-heavy approach hasn’t translated consistently at the pro level, and early signs in camp suggest growing pains with the new scheme. Protection up front remains shaky—Washington’s offensive line ranked 28th in ESPN’s pass block win rate (49%) last year and allowed pressure on 36.4% of drop-backs, the fifth-worst mark in the league.

This is the trap of the Commanders’ long-standing curse: just when things seem to shift, they fall back into instability. Last season’s playoff run—ending in a 31–17 loss to Detroit in the NFC Championship—broke a 33-year drought of deep postseason relevance, but it didn’t end the narrative. Washington was out-gained 402 to 289 in that game and failed to convert a single third down (0-for-8), exposing gaps that were masked during the regular season. If Daniels regresses, or if Washington fails to clear even 10 wins—a mark they’ve surpassed just four times since 2000—this season will only reinforce the cycle that’s haunted the franchise for over three decades. And yet, despite all these cracks, there’s another storyline building—one that’s painting Daniels not as a risk, but as a rising star in the MVP race.

Jayden Daniels and the MVP Buzz That Might Be Too Loud, Too Soon

The MVP conversation around Jayden Daniels picked up fast—and maybe too early. After a rookie season that saw him post the second-highest PFF grade ever for a first-year quarterback (91.3) and lead the league in PFF Wins Above Replacement (2.64), analysts like John Kosko projected Daniels as an MVP candidate in Year Two. Even betting markets responded, placing him in the top five with odds as short as +850. That kind of projection, though, comes with little margin for error, especially for a player still adapting to a new offensive coordinator, a shaky line, and heavier expectations.

Daniels’ numbers might still climb this season, but the gap between “better” and “MVP-caliber” is massive. Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP season, for example, came with 43 total touchdowns and a 14–2 record. Daniels, in comparison, would need to boost both his raw production and the Commanders’ win total just to stay in the conversation. A strong year with 3,800 passing yards and 25 touchdowns would mark clear progress—but wouldn’t move the MVP needle in a league loaded with proven names like Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. If the team itself backslides, as Breer warns, then even a leap forward from Daniels could get buried under the weight of Washington’s regression.

And that’s where the two storylines collide. The same factors threatening to extend Washington’s 34-year Super Bowl drought—coaching turnover, offensive instability, and organizational inconsistency—also make Daniels’ MVP buzz feel premature. If Albert Breer’s prediction holds and the Commanders fail to replicate last year’s 12 wins or even make it back to the NFC title game, then the MVP talk around Daniels likely fades with it. Because in D.C., individual stardom has never survived when the bigger picture cracks—and if the curse holds, Daniels won’t just miss the Super Bowl, he’ll miss the MVP stage too.