Aaron Glenn’s first camp as Jets head coach opened with a straight-line message: identity, discipline, and a no-frills “we’re the Jets” edge. Alongside new GM Darren Mougey and OC Tanner Engstrand (his Detroit running mate), Glenn laid out the blueprint: lean on the ground game, let the defense set the tone, and cut out the chaos. Well…things aren’t off to a bright start.

The preseason hasn’t turned into a Broadway debut, and The Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt put it in black and white: his win-total model pegs the Jets for something short of spectacular. The sticking point? Quarterback play. Rosenblatt thinks that Justin Fields isn’t the QB1 who can lead this Jets team to more than 8 wins.

“There aren’t many analytics that point to Justin Fields being a starting quarterback who can lead a team to eight-plus wins, because he’s never done it. Fields is ultimately the biggest factor in any expectations you might have for the Jets,” he wrote. Honestly? Rosenblatt didn’t invent scepticism; he just quantified it.

Let’s talk about how the Jets are looking so far. The Jets wrapped the preseason at 1–2. They throttled the Packers 30–10 in the opener, only to get smoked by the Giants 12–31 and edged by the Eagles 17–19. It’s not a fatal record, but it’s hardly the kind of tape a first-year coach circles as proof of progress.

Rosenblatt’s model isn’t blind to upside. He highlights the trenches as a strength, points to elite talent at corner and linebacker, and notes the star power of Garrett Wilson plus rookie tight end Mason Taylor. And that’s fair. Wilson’s 101 grabs for 1,104 yards in 2024 already locked him in as a true WR1 any staff would anchor to.  And Mason Taylor was a second-round pick with real upside, too. Immediate expectations.

Flip the page on Rosenblatt’s outlook, and the cracks show quickly: outside of Wilson, the pass-game cupboard looks light. Josh Reynolds and Tyler Johnson are in the WR2 battle, but both profile more as steady rotational targets than true counterpunchers. The week-to-week firepower just isn’t there.

He claimed that most of the Jets’ season depends upon Justin Fields’s performance, and that’s not a good thing. It’s about whether the coaches can turn him into the passing weapon that he could be. However, so far, he’s looking like the same passer he was in Pitt and Chicago.

Fields’ passing game can make or break the Jets’ season

If Fields remains stuck in short-throw mode, the Jets will be an offense that’s easy to game-plan against: you load the box, take away Wilson’s deeper shots, and force Fields to win with tight windows. That’s the scenario Rosenblatt’s model leans on. It’s not bias, just the math of what happens when the offense stays predictable.

On paper, Fields’s career totals look serviceable. 7,780 passing yards through 2024, but the pattern poses an issue. He hasn’t yet put together a season where the passing game consistently clicked into the efficient rhythm you see from quarterbacks leading playoff-caliber teams. That’s the gap Rosenblatt keeps circling.

Fields completed just 1-of-5 passes and has averaged 3.9 air yards per attempt on nine passes over two preseason games. This is an issue that shrinks the field. Instead of forcing safeties deep, defenses can sit on the short game, crowd the box, and dare the Jets to beat tight windows. The result isn’t ‘mobile QB stress,’ it’s an offense that feels compressed and easier to script against.

Preseason tape doesn’t lie, and the Giants rematch put it in plain sight: Fields went 1-of-5 for just 4 yards before exiting. Tiny sample? Sure. But it mirrors Rosenblatt’s larger concern. When defenses stop showing vanilla looks, the ball isn’t coming out on time, and the offense loses rhythm before it ever stretches the field.

Bottom line? The Jets’ stacking up more than 9 wins and heading to the playoffs primarily depends on Fields’s passing game. And it’s far from perfect right now.