The Pittsburgh Steelers offseason has been one to watch. In HC Mike Tomlin’s head, there’s one goal– Get to the playoffs. The trade for DK Metcalf and the wild chase for Aaron Rodgers certainly shows the direction. But one name has been hanging in there for way too long, quietly waiting for him to be called into GM Omar Khan’s office– TJ Watt– the defensive support of the Steel City. Although for months now, talks have been going, negotiations have stalled on guaranteed money and contract length. Still, Tomlin is, “optimistic we’re going to get things done.” And they just might.

With Watt missing out on the mandatory minicamp, the rumor mill hinted at trades. But ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler cleared, “I talked to somebody with the team who said, ‘Look, these are complicated deals to do, but we are working on it. We want T.J. Watt here.’”  No doubt, losing him would be a gut punch for Tomlin and Co. especially after designing a team to go far and beyond.

But what TJ Watt wants is to be the NFL’s highest-paid edge rusher, surpassing Myles Garrett’s $40 million annual deal with Cleveland from earlier this offseason. His numbers make a case for him– 108 career sacks and 2021 Defensive Player of the Year award, and Steelers’ 1-11 record without him. And Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio is convinced that when Pittsburgh finally slide their best offer, Watt will pick it up.

Sharing his thoughts, Florio was confident, stating, “Even if, as we’ve heard, the current gap between the Steelers and Watt is significant, the gap necessarily will narrow when the final stages of the negotiations begin… This time, the Steelers seem to believe (based on our discussions with those familiar with the team’s approach) that, when their best number is put on the table, Watt will take it.

“Our guess (and it’s just a guess) is that the Steelers hope to stay closer to the Maxx Crosby range of $35.5 million, with Watt hoping to surge past Myle Garrett’s $40 million per year.”

Previously, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Gerry Dulac even gave a timeline of “sometime between” the Steelers’ preseason finale at the Carolina Panthers on Aug. 21 and Pittsburgh’s Week 1 matchup at the New York Jets on Sept. 7, promising, “The Steelers want to and believe they will sign T.J. Watt.” So with all the time taken to understand the economics of it all, Tomlin is finally clearer on what it will take to keep the pure defensive dominance in Pittsburgh.

Why the confidence? History offers a clue. The last time Watt’s deal loomed, in 2021, it was a summer-long tango. He “held in” – present but not practicing – deep into camp, squeezing until the Steelers coughed up a $28 million per year. It worked. Now, the ante is astronomically higher.

Imagine the Steelers’ final pitch lands at, say, $38 million annually. That’s life-changing money. But is it enough for a player of Watt’s caliber, staring down $2.1 million per week (based on 18 game checks) he’d forfeit by holding out into the season?

What’s the best TJ Watt can do?

The Steelers might be banking on Watt’s loyalty, his blue-collar Wisconsin roots echoing the franchise’s identity. But underestimate his resolve at your peril. If $40 million is his line in the turf, would he really blink at $38 million? Pittsburgh might view Garrett’s deal as a ‘Cleveland albatross,’ akin to Deshaun Watson’s contract, an outlier not worth matching, per Florio. Here’s the rub: the market isn’t static.

Lurking around is Micah Parsons. His impending megadeal won’t just match Garrett’s number; it could even obliterate it. Watt waiting for Parsons to reset the market? That’s leverage Pittsburgh can’t counter. Why settle now when the ceiling could be $42 million or higher next month?

So, the equation is stark: Watt either accepts the Steelers’ best offer—projected to be generational wealth but perhaps shy of top-of-market—or he doesn’t. Pittsburgh’s gamble hinges on their belief that Watt, despite being arguably the most impactful non-QB in football (108 sacks, 33 forced fumbles, tied the single-season sack record at 22.5), will prioritize the black and gold over every last dollar. But Watt holds cards Tomlin can’t scheme around.

The Steelers are all in for 2025. Adding Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, and Jalen Ramsey screams “Super Bowl or Bust.” Removing Watt from that equation? It’s like yanking the engine out of a dragster mid-race. Their 1-11 record without him isn’t a fluke; it’s a statistical certainty (p = .0008). His presence alone dictates double teams, unlocks plays for Highsmith and Heyward, and transforms the entire defensive ethos. He’s not just a player; he is the defense. As Tomlin himself puts it, expecting Watt’s game-wrecking dominance is something “I’ve just come to expect it.”

The cost of keeping T.J. Watt isn’t just about cap percentages or beating Cleveland’s number. It’s the price of preserving the very soul of Steelers football—that relentless, QB-hunting identity forged in the fires of the Steel Curtain. Tomlin knows the number now. The question echoing through the halls at UPMC Rooney Sports Complex isn’t if they’ll pay it, but how much of their financial philosophy they’re willing to sacrifice to keep their defensive sun from setting. The clock to Week 1 is ticking, louder with each passing day.