Late June. A Florida 7-on-7 youth football competition. Things became a bit too real as Geno Smith was coaching the South Florida Express, his offseason passion project. NFL Network was broadcasting the game live. The Express was winning 38–21. But Geno? He needed security to physically restrain him during a heated argument because he lost his cool on the sidelines. That’s when the now-Raiders QB shouted the line that echoed across social media: “That’s why they pay me the big bucks, that’s why I get paid the big bucks.” And he wasn’t wrong in saying that.

Because Vegas is paying him. This offseason, Smith agreed to a two-year, $75 million deal with the Raiders. The concept was straightforward: provide leadership, stability, and a quarterback who has proven to recover from setbacks. But as Smith adjusts to a new team, a new system, and a whole new set of expectations, the buzz is growing louder. Not all of it is supportive. While Smith’s job looks safe on the surface, a Pro Football Talk report just dropped a little twist. His fate might not rest with the head coach. It might lie with a certain sharply dressed, Lombardi-loving minority owner.

Officially, Geno Smith is not on the hot seat. But Mike Florio at PFT says he’s not entirely off it either. “He’s being mentioned simply to say he’s not on the hot seat. He has $18.5 million in guarantees for 2026, and his close ties to Pete Carroll will keep Smith around…(Unless, of course, a certain minority owner decides otherwise.)” Tom Brady is that ‘certain minority owner,’ of course. In actuality, Brady does not have complete authority over roster choices. But technically, he is doing a lot of work there. Owner Mark Davis has made it clear – Brady was deeply involved in the move to bring Smith to Vegas. 

Brady wanted him. Backed him. And spoke publicly about him. “He’s a great leader for the organization,” he said. “Everyone’s excited to have him, and Geno’s done a great job since he was acquired, coming in and working his tail off. Everyone’s excited about the direction we’re heading.” But here’s the thing about Brady: he’s not in Vegas to babysit a rebuild. He’s here to win. If the Raiders start slow – if Smith stumbles early – don’t be shocked if the same guy who brought him in is also the one who nudges him out.

Need proof? Ask Jimmy Garoppolo. He agreed to a three-year, $67.5 million contract with the Raiders in 2023. By week 9, he was benched for Aidan O’Connell. So, the Raiders don’t have a lot of patience when it comes to their players’ performance. And Rotoballer analyst Aidin Ebrahimi is also not buying the long leash. He pointed out that Smith’s 2024 efficiency stats were around the league average. “This will likely be a run-heavy team with Ashton Jeanty, so if Smith struggles early on, he could be replaced by O’Connell.” And money or stats won’t save him. But if Brady is the scalpel, then Pete Carroll is the seatbelt. And he’s already setting the deadline.

Pete Carroll’s timeline gets Geno Smith some grace period

The same PFT report that hinted at Brady’s influence also said this: Smith’s “close ties to Pete Carroll will keep him around for at least two years.” That tracks. Carroll and Smith go way back. Four years in Seattle. Two Pro Bowls. A Comeback Player of the Year Award. And Carroll never flinched. “I’ve never been around a guy who was so consistently focused on ‘I could be playing the very next play, and so I’ve got to be ready.’ He did it for years,” Carroll said in June. “We have a lot of common language and common experience. Our communication is tops.”

This isn’t just lip service. In their time together, Smith played 37 games and had an 18-17 record. He led the NFL in completion percentage (69.8%) in 2022. He posted five game-winning drives in 2023. And in Smith’s own words, there’s “unfinished business.” At their joint press conference in April, Smith said, “I think, when people think about my story, Coach Carroll is a big part of that.”

So it’s no surprise that Carroll is reportedly giving Geno a two-year window to prove himself in silver and black. But even loyalty has limits. Because while Carroll is backing his guy, Brady might have his timeline. And if those two visions ever clash? Let’s say the quarterback won’t be the one deciding which vision wins.