This match is a real do-or-die moment for Jannik Sinner. A win keeps his title defense alive, brings him 400 PIF ATP ranking points, and adds $1,183,500 to his earnings. But the pressure isn’t just about numbers. He has played a perfect tournament so far, hasn’t dropped a single set, and everyone expects him to keep that level. What makes it even more intense is the opponent waiting on the other side of the net.

Alex de Minaur has lost his last 12 matches to Sinner, which bodes well for the Italian, but it also makes De Minaur dangerous because he knows he has nothing to lose. Sinner comes in riding high after beating Ben Shelton again, creating a bit of ATP Finals history along the way. Now he stands one match away from the final, fighting to win this event for the second straight year. Everything is on the line, and that is what makes this semifinal so important for him

How did Jannik Sinner reach the Nitto ATP Finals semifinal?

Sinner entered the tournament as the defending champion and got off to a flying start. He won all his group matches, ending the round-robin stage with a perfect 3-0 record in the Bjorn Borg group. Notably, he defeated Alexander Zverev 6-4, 6-3, clinching the group win early. That win marked his 5th straight victory over Zverev.

In the match against Ben Shelton, he sealed the group with another straight-sets victory (6-3, 7-6) and eliminated Shelton from contention. With this win, he extended his indoor hard-court winning streak to 29 matches. By doing that, he tied Roger Federer’s Open Era record for the longest indoor run. Because of these wins, Sinner finished the group stage undefeated (3-0 record) and advanced to the semifinals as the group leader.

Sure, his season has been exceptional from start to finish. He won his first Wimbledon title by beating Carlos Alcaraz, added trophies at the Australian Open and China Open, and recently claimed the Paris Masters without losing a single set. That Paris win even helped him briefly return to world number one before Alcaraz moved ahead again. With a year this strong, it is no surprise that Sinner entered the semifinals playing some of the best tennis of his career.

How did Alex de Minaur secure his spot in the semifinal?

De Minaur did not have an easy start in the Jimmy Connors group. He lost his first match to Carlos Alcaraz, and then another tough one to Lorenzo Musetti, a match he was actually leading before things slipped away. That put him under real pressure heading into his final group match. Against Taylor Fritz, he finally found his rhythm. He stayed steady, played smart tennis, and won 7-6(3), 6-3. That straight-sets victory was essential because with a 1-2 record, he still needed a win and favorable outcomes elsewhere to proceed.

After that, he had to wait and hope. His qualification depended on one more result, and it worked in his favor when Alcaraz beat Musetti. That match pushed de Minaur into second place in the group and sent him through to the semifinals. However, this season has been kind to him overall.

He reached his 50th win of the year at the Shanghai Masters by beating Nuno Borges, showing how well he has played week after week. In Vienna, he hit another big milestone by earning his 300th career win with a strong performance against Jurij Rodionov. Earlier in May, he also lifted the Lyon Open trophy after beating Zhizhen Zhang in the final. These wins show how much he has grown this year and why he has earned his place in the semifinals.

Jannik Sinner vs. Alex de Minaur head-to-head (H2H) record explained

Jannik Sinner holds complete control in his head-to-head record with Alex de Minaur, leading 12 to 0. Across their meetings, they have played 29 sets, with Sinner winning 27 and de Minaur taking only 2. Their latest match came at the Erste Bank Open in Vienna on October 25, 2025, where Sinner won 6-3, 6-4 on indoor hard courts. Overall, Sinner has dominated every matchup, winning all 12 of their encounters while de Minaur is still searching for his first victory.

Sinner vs. de Minaur Statistical Comparison

Semifinal prediction: Who has the edge in Sinner vs De Minaur?

Jannik Sinner is in great form and seems ready to take control of the semifinal. He’s shown he can raise his level in tough moments, closing tight matches with confidence. His record speaks for itself: 56 wins and only 6 losses, with a 90% win rate.

Alex de Minaur is tough and doesn’t give up easily, but against Sinner, he has struggled to break the Italian’s rhythm. This year, de Minaur has a 70.8% win rate with 22 losses.

History also shows Sinner usually comes out on top in their encounters.  Bookmakers strongly favor Sinner, giving him about an 88% chance to win. Predictions suggest Set 1 could go 6-3 to Sinner, with a tight Set 2 possibly ending 7-6, for a straight-sets victory.

Predicted scoreline:

Set 1 could end 6-3 in Sinner’s favor as he holds serve strongly.

Set 2 might be closer, with de Minaur pushing it to a tiebreak, finishing 7-6.

The predicted final score is 6-3, 7-6 to Sinner.

Match Timing: When will Sinner vs De Minaur be played?

The semifinal between Jannik Sinner and Alex de Minaur will be played on November 15, 2025 at the Inalpi Arena in Turin, Italy.

Where to Watch Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur semifinal?

Fans can catch the match live on: Tennis Channel, TSN and Sky Sports.