The bantamweight division heats up as Umar Nurmagomedov faces Mario Bautista at UFC 321, a matchup with significant title implications. With Merab Dvalishvili preparing to defend his title against Petr Yan, the winner may emerge as the next challenger. Nurmagomedov aims to rebound from his first professional loss, while Bautista is on an eight-fight winning streak, including a strong performance over Patchy Mix.

UFC CEO Dana White has suggested that an entertaining performance could result in a title opportunity. On paper, this is a striker vs. grappler matchup, but both have developed into complete fighters, making this one of UFC 321’s more unpredictable fights. Both have the hunger and ability to make a statement, but who truly has the advantage when the numbers are laid bare? Let’s find out.

Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista stats comparison

Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista are statistically similar in size, measuring around 5’8″-5’9″ and having a 69-inch reach. However, their approaches to combat couldn’t be more different. Nurmagomedov’s 18-1 professional record is based on control, precision, and constant pressure, which are hallmarks of the Dagestani fighting style that has been taught to him by none other than Abdulmanap and Khabib Nurmagomedov.

His 4.38 significant strikes landed per minute at 57% accuracy show his increasing confidence on his feet, while his 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes at 39% accuracy highlight his wrestling-heavy background. Though his submission rate is modest (0.3 per 15 minutes), seven of his eighteen victories have been via submission, showcasing his ability to finish fights once they reach the mat.

Defensively, the Dagestani absorbs just 2.15 significant strikes per minute and avoids 60% of his opponents’ strikes, showing his quick mobility and positional awareness. His only loss to Merab Dvalishvili was a learning experience rather than a setback, revealing areas for improvement while highlighting his durability and championship potential. The 29-year-old continues to improve his striking fluidity and wrestling dominance while training at the American Kickboxing Academy and Eagles MMA.

Mario Bautista, on the other hand, combines volume with aggression. With a 16-2 record, he’s an eager striker who lands 6.13 significant strikes per minute, a rate nearly double that of Nurmagomedov, with 49% accuracy. His output makes him one of the division’s most active fighters, but his defensive stats show some serious vulnerability, as he absorbs 4.45 strikes per minute and defends 55% of opponents’ strikes.

Nonetheless, his relentless pace often overwhelms opponents, as shown by his wins over Patchy Mix and José Aldo. In terms of grappling, the American fighter averages 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes with 33% accuracy and 0.8 submissions. His record includes six submission wins, suggesting that he is dangerous in transitions even though he isn’t known for his wrestling skills. The primary stat difference is defensive stability, with Nurmagomedov’s measured control and Bautista’s high-risk, high-output aggression.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista stylistic comparison

This duel has the feel of a battle between structure and chaos. Umar Nurmagomedov lives on discipline; his movement, timing, and grappling setups are all precise, and his striking, while not explosive, is effective and controlled. Expect him to combine jabs with level changes, forcing Bautista to constantly defend takedowns. Once on the ground, the Dagestani’s crushing top control and positional dominance make it impossible for opponents to mount any sort of offense.

As for Mario Bautista, his strength is his unpredictability. As a switch-stance fighter, he uses explosive combinations and forward pressure to keep opponents guessing. His tremendous output and ability to combine kicks, knees, and elbows make him a threat in the pocket. However, his aggression can leave him vulnerable to takedowns, which is a risk when facing someone as methodical as Nurmagomedov.

If the 32-year-old American can maintain range and avoid early takedowns, his striking volume could put the Dagestani fighter in a difficult position. But if Umar Nurmagomedov closes the gap, it might become a one-sided grappling clinic.

Final prediction for UFC 321

The outcome of the bout will be determined by Mario Bautista’s ability to manage distance and tempo while avoiding Umar Nurmagomedov’s grappling traps. The American’s striking volume may earn early points, but Nurmagomedov’s composure and superior positional control should eventually take over. By the second round, his combination of takedowns and pressure likely drains Bautista’s explosiveness and limits his offensive rhythm.

While Bautista’s improvements make him a credible threat, Nurmagomedov’s experience against top-tier opponents and ability to control fight geography give him the advantage. Expect Umar Nurmagomedov to win by unanimous decision, reestablishing himself as the top contender in the bantamweight division and landing himself a rematch against Merab Dvalishvili in 2026.