For Charles Oliveira, UFC Rio is more than a comeback; it’s redemption. The Brazilian hero returns to the Octagon after a brutal knockout loss to Ilia Topuria at UFC 317 earlier this year, hoping to prove that the fire still burns. Across from him stands Poland’s Mateusz ‘Gamer’ Gamrot, a man who’s quietly built a reputation as one of the most relentless grapplers in the division.

While Rafael Fiziev was originally slated to face off against ‘Do Bronx’ on his home ground, an unexpected injury nixed those plans and opened the door for Gamrot to step in. But this isn’t just another fight night; it’s the UFC’s first Rio Fight Night since 2015, marking a homecoming charged with emotion. So, on one side of the main event is a former champion fighting to reclaim his glory; on the other, a relentless climber looking to carve his name into the top of the division. But how do they measure up head-to-head? Let’s dive in!

Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot ranking, stats, and record comparison

Charles Oliveira enters UFC Rio with a professional record of 35 wins and 11 losses, ranked no. 4 at lightweight and one of the most decorated resumes in UFC history! The former lightweight king has 21 submission victories, 10 knockouts, and 16 first-round finishes to his name in his professional career. Standing 5’10” tall with a 74-inch reach, he blends fluid Muay Thai striking with world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

But beyond the stats lies the story of the evolution of a fighter once dismissed as inconsistent, who rose to capture UFC gold and the record for most submission wins (16) and most ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses (13) in company history.

Mateusz Gamrot, meanwhile, carries a 25-3 record, holds the no.8 spot in the division, and represents a new wave of European dominance. The 5’10” Polish powerhouse, fighting out of American Top Team, holds a 70.5-inch reach and a resume boasting multiple titles in Poland’s KSW promotion.

Known for his relentless pace, slick wrestling, and ability to adapt mid-fight, Gamrot is no stranger to five-round wars. His recent decision win over Ludovit Klein reminded fans why he’s a problem for anyone in the top 10, as he’s a grinder with precision and patience. So, what does the scale tell us about these two?

Walkaround weight of Oliveira and Gamrot

Weight cuts are a dark art in MMA, and both men know the toll it takes. Charles Oliveira has danced with that danger before. Early in his career, he tried to make featherweight, a decision that led to multiple failed weigh-ins and near disasters. And he even lost his lightweight title at UFC 274 as he missed the 155 lbs limit at the weigh-ins.

However, since making a permanent move to lightweight in 2017, he’s stayed true to the 155-pound class, but reportedly walks around a much heavier 183–185 pounds. It’s part of what gives him his power and size advantage once the cage door closes.

Gamrot, on the other hand, keeps things tighter. Before joining the UFC, he admitted that cutting to featherweight was a nightmare in his time as a two-weight champion in KSW. “I think the lightweight category is better for me,” he said in an earlier interview. “I can’t cut too much weight, but if I have big offers for featherweight, I will be ready.” That comment hints that he likely walks around at 180 pounds.

At the UFC Rio weigh-ins, both men made weight at 156 pounds, but how much they rehydrate could decide who owns the Octagon come fight night, as we now shift our focus over to their fighting styles!

Fighting style comparison of UFC Rio main eventers

Stylistically, this matchup is pure tension. Charles Oliveira thrives on chaos and scrambles, the kind that breaks men. He charges forward with a high guard and Muay Thai pressure, mixing in sharp jabs and slicing elbows whenever the opportunity presents itself. When he feels rhythm, he’s unstoppable, his left hook and front kicks set up violent uppercuts, and his clinch game often leads to fight-ending sequences. But that aggression cuts both ways.

On the other hand, Mateusz Gamrot’s approach is surgical. A switch-stance striker with wrestling at his core, he controls the tempo. His jab sets traps, and his patented low-single takedowns arrive faster than most fighters can sprawl. Once on the ground, ‘Gamer’ becomes a machine, constantly chaining attacks, hunting transitions, and grinding his opponents into fatigue. His ADCC-level grappling makes him dangerous from top position, but Oliveira’s submissions from the bottom might be the ultimate equalizer.

It’s important to note that ‘Do Bronx’ has long turned mistakes into masterpieces. He can catch a neck in seconds, converting scrambles into chokes with sniper precision. Gamrot, while the better wrestler, will have to navigate those traps carefully, because once Oliveira latches on, few escape. Adding the fact that he’s coming into the fight on short notice, it remains to be seen how he fares against the Brazilian marauder. With all that being said, what’s the prediction for the UFC Rio main event?

Final prediction for UFC Rio: Oliveira vs Gamrot

The odds from FanDuel say it’s even with Oliveira and Gamrot both at -110, and it’s hard to argue with that line. On paper, it’s a stylistic coin toss. Charles Oliveira has the experience, finishing instinct, and crowd behind him. Mateusz Gamrot has momentum, durability, and world-class wrestling.

Yet, one question looms: can Gamrot handle the intensity of Oliveira in front of an arena filled with screaming Brazilians? The short notice could haunt him. ‘Do Broxn’, even at 35, remains one of the sport’s deadliest opportunists, a man who turns chaos into victory. As such, our final predictions for the UFC Rio main event lean towards a Charles Oliveira finish via submission following a knockdown on the feet, inside the distance! But what do you think? Drop your picks in the comments below!