It’s Brazil vs Jamaica in the deserts of Nevada as welterweight Gabriel Bonfim steps into his first main event spotlight against the seasoned Randy Brown at UFC Vegas 111, live from the UFC Apex! For Bonfim, it’s a defining moment, the kind that can turn promise into stardom. For Brown, it’s a chance to derail the hype and prove experience still counts more than youth.

Bonfim, who is riding a three-fight win streak, told reporters this week that he’s unfazed by the bright lights. “It’s fine. We’ve been able to deal with everything that comes with the main event, I’m really happy to be doing the main event,” he said calmly. “No extra stress.” Brown, meanwhile, returns to action following a spectacular knockout win over Nicolas Dalby in April, the same Dalby who handed Bonfim his only career loss back in 2023. Coincidence or fate? We’ll find out soon enough as we take a look at how these two stack up ahead of this crucial matchup!

Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown’s height, weight, reach, and more stats

Before breaking down styles, let’s line up the numbers, because the tale of the tape paints quite a story of contrasts:

The numbers tell a fascinating tale. Brown’s size and length give him an immediate edge in striking range, a full six inches in reach (78″ vs 72″) and two inches in height. Bonfim, however, flips the script on the mat. Thirteen of his eighteen wins have come by submission, and he averages 4.02 takedowns per 15 minutes with 55% accuracy, putting him in elite wrestling territory at welterweight. Brown’s takedown defense? 73% on paper, but as recent fights have shown, the numbers can lie.

Against Bryan Battle, ‘Rudeboy’ got taken down twice by a fighter who isn’t exactly known for his wrestling game. The edge for youth also goes to the Brazilian, as he’s only 28 and is poised to break out as his country’s next big star. With that being said, let’s dive deeper into the breakdown of their fighting styles!

Bonfim vs Brown style breakdown for UFC Vegas 111

At the time of writing, the odds slightly favor Bonfim (-185), with Brown sitting at (+154). And while oddsmakers may lean toward the Brazilian, this is one of those matchups that could swing on a single mistake. ‘Marretinha’s last outing, a razor-thin split decision win over Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, left many questioning whether the hype train had slowed.

Bonfim himself likely knows he can’t afford another striking duel against a technician. The loss to Nicolas Dalby in 2023, where he was stopped by knees as a -650 favorite, still hangs like a shadow over his resume.

Brown, on the other hand, has momentum on his side. His right hook knockout of Dalby in April was one of the cleanest finishes of the year. Before that, he dropped a close split decision to Bryan Battle, but even in defeat, Brown showed improved composure and shot selection.

But the most glaring difference remains stylistic. Brown wants space; Bonfim wants chaos. If this stays on the feet, Brown should control the fight with his jab, reach, and power shots. But if it hits the canvas, and it almost certainly will, Bonfim’s submission prowess could end it fast.

As the Brazilian stated in his interview, “Randy’s a great striker. He’s tall, he’s got long range, he’s rangy. He likes to trade, but that’s it. He’s a long, rangy, fighter. Good striker, boxing. That’s how I see it. I have a lot more tools, a lot of diverse [tools] that [I] can use against him. I’m very excited for this fight.”

That confidence isn’t misplaced. Bonfim’s ground control rate and transition speed are elite, as his 1.6 submissions per 15 minutes are among the highest among active welterweights. So, can Randy Brown stay upright long enough to make his reach count at UFC Vegas 111? That’s the million-dollar question. Bonfim’s pressure, persistence, and precision make him a nightmare once he gets in on the hips. Add to that Brown’s two prior submission losses to Jack Della Maddalena and Mike Graves, and the puzzle starts to come together.

The betting math reflects it too. Bonfim by submission sits at +165, while his straight win moneyline is -185. The fight’s round total? 2.5 rounds, relatively low for a five-round main event. That tells you the oddsmakers expect an early finish, but what’s our prediction for this matchup?

Prediction for UFC Vegas 111 main event

Randy Brown enters this fight with renewed confidence and knockout power that could change everything in an instant. As such, ESPN’s Din Thomas predicted exactly that, “Brown’s only path to win is by knockout, but good news for him, he’s got a good chance to do that. He’s got the reach advantage plus some newfound confidence that wasn’t there earlier in his career, allowing him to plant his feet, stay in the pocket and throw punches from a range that Bonfim will struggle with.”

But here’s where it gets tricky. ‘Rudeboy’s striking advantage is undeniable, yet his vulnerability on the ground is equally clear. Gabriel Bonfim’s relentless grappling and submission chain make him a dangerous matchup for anyone who can’t scramble fast or stay balanced under pressure. The Brazilian also enters this bout with a hunger that statistics can’t measure.

“By the end of next year, I want to be top 5,” he told reporters. That’s not just confidence, that’s ambition with purpose. So, where does that leave us? If Brown keeps it standing, he could very well land the upset and silence the hype emphatically. But if Bonfim drags this into his world, the grappling exchanges, it might be a long night for ‘Rudeboy.’

Our prediction? Gabriel Bonfim via submission. He’s younger, sharper, and far more comfortable in chaos, but as always in the fight game, one punch can rewrite the narrative. Who’s your pick for the UFC Vegas 111 main event? Drop it in the comments below!