Will Roger Federer Drop Out of Top 10 Rankings in 2021?

Published 05/03/2021, 7:55 AM EDT
Roger Federer of Switzerland looks on during his Men’s Singles Semifinal match against Novak Djokovic of Serbia on day eleven of the 2020 Australian Open at Melbourne Park on January 30, 2020 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)


Roger Federer is now in the lower half of the top 10 ATP rankings. He is currently ranked eighth and below him are Diego Schwartzman in ninth and Matteo Berrettini in tenth. But even though his ranking is on a free fall, it is unlikely Federer will leave the top 10 this year.

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Before the start of the Madrid Open 2021, Federer had 5875 points, Diego Schwartzman had 3493 points, Berrettini had 3090 points. And just outside the top 10 are the Spanish duo of Roberto Bautista Agut and Pablo Carreno Busta. Federer is not going to leave the top 10 anytime soon because he has 3400 points from 2019 to 2020 that he will drop in 2022.

Roger Federer wearing a mask as he walks out before his first-round match against Great Britain’s Dan Evans Tennis Federation/Samer Al-Rejjal/Handout via REUTERS

Thus, he will keep at least those points until the end of 2021, and that is more than Berrettini‘s current total. Schwartzman, Berrettini, Bautista Agut, and Carreno Busta have a chance to improve their points, but that same applies to the Swiss master.

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Roger Federer in action during his first round match against Great Britain’s Dan Evans Tennis Federation/Samer Al-Rejjal/Handout via REUTERS

How are the new ATP rules affecting Roger Federer?

With the current directive from ATP until August 2021, players will only lose half of the points earned in 2019. Hence, Federer was saved as he lost only half of his points earned in the 2019 Indian Wells, Miami Open etc.

The coming clay court season also had Federer defending 1080 points. But with the new rules, Federer stands a chance to lose only 540 points. He could certainly lose less if he earns points in Geneva Open and improves his French Open result.

Similarly, the chasing pack behind Federer also has a lot of points to defend in the big tournaments. Schwartzman and Berrettini have to defend 720 points from Roland Garros and US Open, respectively.

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Federer was supposed to play in Madrid Open this week, but the postponement of the French Open 2021 gave him an extra week, which prompted him to avoid Madrid and play in the ATP 250 tournament in his country, Switzerland. ATP Geneva Open will be Federer’s only event before the French Open.

After staying away from the sport because of injury, Federer made his comeback at ATP Doha in early March. Struggling for match fitness, Federer was ousted from the tournament in the quarterfinals. His return started off with him ranked 6th. Now he has been surpassed by Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev.

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Bhavishya Mittal

1226 articles

Bhavishya Mittal is a tennis author for EssentiallySports, who is currently pursuing his Bachelor's degree in Journalism from Manipal University. A former sports editor for The Manipal Journal, Bhavishya has also worked for The New Indian Express. He has a keen eye for many sports but he is a particularly ardent follower of tennis, with a zest to create riveting articles on the ever-evolving sport.

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