Game 1 was pure drama from start to finish. Nine ties and 12 lead changes, with three of them in the fourth quarter alone, kept everyone on the edge of their seats in the league’s first-ever seven-game Finals series. The Mercury once held a nine-point lead, but A’ja Wilson and the Aces weren’t done yet. They mounted a gutsy comeback to steal an 89-86 victory. Sure, Alyssa Thomas and the Mercury still have three shots to turn the series around, but there’s a scary trend emerging for the Mercury.

“This is the third time this season they’ve beaten Phoenix by exactly three points,” Sabreena Merchant of The Athletic said on No Offseason: The Athletic Women’s Basketball Show. “It just feels like an advantage that they’ve just been building on. And you can look at all of the chemistry that Phoenix has developed over the course of the season. It’s still not exactly what Vegas has, you know, the advantage they’ve built over the last five years with this core.”

The Mercury’s big three, put together this season, powered the team to 27 wins–their best mark since 2015 and only the second time in franchise history they’ve gone 25+. Alyssa Thomas has been the engine, flirting with triple-doubles all season and making history by becoming the first player to record three consecutive triple-doubles. On top of that, she reclaimed the single-season assist record from Caitlin Clark, which she had originally set in 2023.

But taking down the Aces has been a different story for the Mercury. As Sabreena Merchant pointed out, this was the third time this season Las Vegas had edged Phoenix by exactly three points, following regular-season wins of 84-81 and 86-83. It’s a clear sign of the Aces’ clutch-time dominance over the Mercury.

The Aces boast a core that knows what it takes to win on the biggest stage. Wilson and Young were part of the team that fell to the Storm in the 2020 Finals, but they learned from it. Then came the era of back-to-back championships with Gray and Stokes joining the mix. Four Finals appearances in the last five years is no small feat, and that experience gives the Aces a clear edge over the Mercury.

With under 30 seconds left, Alyssa Thomas had a golden opportunity to change this trend. She stole the ball from A’ja Wilson, raced coast to coast, powered toward the rim, and drew a foul–two free throws and a chance to win it for the Mercury. But fate wasn’t on her side. The first shot bounced long off the back rim. The second teased the rim, spun around, and rolled out.

For Alyssa Thomas, this marks her third trip to the Finals–and she already knows what it’s like to come up short against the Aces. She lived that heartbreak back in 2022. “I’ve been chasing a championship for a long time, and I believe this is our moment,” she said after reaching the semis, but going up against Las Vegas again, she might be reliving a bit of that deja vu.

That said, her coach revealed the real reason behind the Game 1 loss, and it had nothing to do with Thomas missing those two crucial free throws.

Alyssa Thomas’ coach praises the Aces Zone defense

It was a bitter pill for the Mercury to swallow. They controlled most of the game, but everything shifted in the second half. In the fourth quarter, Las Vegas’ playoff experience shone through, holding Phoenix to just 15 points on 33.3 percent shooting and sealing the win. The key? The Aces switched to a 2-3 zone defense, which clogged the middle and limited Alyssa Thomas’ ability to dictate the tempo. This was something coach Tibbetts acknowledged as well.

“They went zone. We got up (by) nine, and they went zone. Kind of made us stand a little bit,” Tibbetts said in the post-game conference. “I thought we had some good looks. Give them credit for mixing up their defense. I thought it was a good adjustment. We didn’t handle it well, and that was part of the reason she didn’t get as many shots in the second half as them going to that zone.”

The big question now is, can the Mercury crack the Aces’ zone defense in Game 2? How they handle it could very well decide the fate of the series. But if history is any guide, don’t count them out. The Mercury have shown they won’t back down easily. They already clawed their way past the defending champions and the league’s top seed after falling behind. If anyone knows how to flip a series, it’s the Mercury.

Who’s your pick to take the crown, the Aces or the Mercury? Drop your predictions in the comments below!